OPEC, Real GDP YOY%
2015201620172019E2020E2021E
OPEC, Real GDP YOY%3.82.11.2332.4
Ecuador-2-1.53.31.61.91.8
Indonesia5.255.15.55.45.6
Kuwait1.93.6-2.92.82.94
Nigeria2.1-2.31.23.132
Qatar3.91.732.83.22.7
Saudi Arabia4.32.1-1.42.32.32.1
United Arab Emirates3.830.83.13.43.1
[Neutral] Teg: Saudi Arabia

I expect that Saudi Arabian economy growth will accelerate on the back of higher oil price (thus, higher domestic demand) and higher oil production. Despite these results, risks remain high due to low economy diversification. That is why long-term stability of growth is rely on implemented National Transformation Program, and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salmana shows strong signal to investors longer-term commitment to continue the reforms. However, the question is about money for these reforms as budget deficit increasing. Additional factor that makes matters worse is increasing poverty level and, thus, increasing social unrest.

[Positive] Teg: Indonesia

I expect further growth of Indonesia's economy, which will be accompanied by real GDP growth of 5.1% per year in 2018-2022. Growth in private consumption will remain strong and especially will be supported by election-related spending in 2019, as populist government measures for supporting household consumption. According to my forecast, the government's efforts to increase the inflow of private investments (domestic and foreign) in infrastructure and manufacturing will ensure capital raising in the mid-term. As a result, gross fixed investment will increase by 5.6% on average in 2018-2022.

[Negative] Teg: Indonesia

My negative outlook on Indonesia's economy reflects the ongoing deficit in merchandise trade balance, which will keep on during 2018-2022. The negative trend of trade balance will be formed by higher commodity prices, as well as Indonesia's strong demand for imported capital goods. The main Indonesia's exports will continue to be natural resources, which will be under pressure due to widening of tariffs on goods imported to the US and possibility of slowdown in China's economic growth. As a result, the trade surplus will not be enough to cover the solid deficit on the primary income account, which I expect to widen to 2022. This also reflects repatriation of funds by foreign firms, as well as an increase in borrowing costs related to Indonesia's large external bond debt, due to higher US interest rates.

[Positive] Teg: Saudi Arabia

The economy is expected to benefit this 2018 year from higher oil prices reflecting the success of cuts by OPEC and allies and strong as expected global growth compared to 2017. This additional revenue will help to boost internal consumption which constitute around the half of SA GDP. I would suggest a gradual growth in GDP from 2.2% in 2018 up to 2.5% in 2021. Also, the government announced privatization of Saudi Aramco and some others assets, this should attract more foreign investors to Saudi Arabia. If it happens it would be the greatest oil stock IPO with the total value of more than 1.5 trillions of dolor (I am measuring by Price-to-Reserves multiple). How many shares the Government would offer we do not know but it is rationale around 5%-10% in IPO, which would result in 75-150 billion of dollars. This is a good sign for investors and opportunities that Saudi Arabia offers if they would not postpone privatization as it was...

[Positive] Teg: United Arab Emirates

A recovery in oil prices together with diversification (to non-ore sectors) course announced by state officials will help the UAE economy to increase in 2018 at the rate of 3-4% in real GDP. Also recent growth in VAT will increase tax revenue which ultimately boost government spending (this will add around 1% in real GDP. As maybe easily seen from statistic page, tourism is also developing in good shape for 2018-2019 (tourism sector is one of the major item in state agenda for diversification)

[Positive] Teg: Saudi Arabia

The economy of Saudi Arabia is primary linked to oil price. For the next 2-3 years most analyst bet on steady growth in oil price, thus, It is likely to forecast economic growth. You know, that the government recently announced that it expects 2.7% GDP real growth rate. On this estimate I would doubt. Last year the government struggled against low oil market by spending cuts in order to lower budget deficit. Now the government plans to raise internal consumer spending by extra payment for government workers and the introduction of value-added taxation (VAT) reform. These all may strive GDP up to 2.0% - 2.1% growth maximum (as per the expectation of barrel of oil at $70).

[Positive] Teg: United Arab Emirates

Most analysts estimates GDP growth in 2018 to be 2-3 pp more than in 2017 thanks to solid upward in oil prices and service sector development in the economy of UAE

[Negative] Teg: Venezuela

One hope that current oil price increase would somehow give some strength to Venezuela economy. It has great oil reserves but how it is now the poorest country. They need very strong government to take the control over all sectors, including mass media and to restrain all of it , I mean any public violent demonstration. But before doing so, for the health of all officials of Venezuela it is worth to solicit support from Russia and China (within BRICs). This only may help. Well, just economic reforms will not help at all. Please, not be naive. Only strong, military government may help, may change the situation for the better

[Positive] Teg: Venezuela

Frankly speaking if I were the president of Venezuela - Mr. Maduro - I think that the only right step to do in order to take control over the long run recession is to restrain all so-called democracy to take the control over everything with a help of police and military. Then, to ask, to plead Mr. Putin to establish military facility here in Venezuela in order to protect physically itself from US wrath. And ultimately to write off all its debt... This will, clearly, help with oil prices and will limit US influence over Venezuela's power of democracy. The only one favorable exit (from recession and crisis) is to use BRICs conjointly with Russia and China (at least with Russia). Just rhetorical question: why Anglo-Saxon countries are in relative prosperous position? the answer is that they always act jointly (via NATO for example). NATO has come to Russian boundaries right at hand. Thus, Venezuela should persuade Mr. Putin to come closer to US boundaries. You will say this is like a cold war.. Of course, cold war has never been stopped. Venezuela is the country that must to be prosperous but to do so we need to act jointly, otherwise we all lose one-by-one.