G20, Real GDP YOY%
G20, Real GDP YOY%
Saudi Arabia2.1-
South Africa0.91.611.71.91.8
South Korea2.
United Kingdom1.
United States1.
[Negative] Teg: Germany

I guess that aging society of German is the main challenge for its economy. In the logic the government should accelerate special education for immigrants in order to promote solid economic growth. But of course this is very sensible thing which may be in the agenda in minimum 5 years.

[Negative] Teg: China

There are rumors that in light of china's currency depreciation, the central bank is likely to tighten liquidity. Obviously, it will raise further concerns in relation to the growth outlook of China. I explain: the US tax reform is underway, and once to be carried out this will cause interest rate increase in the US market, the will result in capital flow from China into the US and will ultimately weaken the yuan. Thus I think that GDP growth will slow.

[Positive] Teg: Turkey

Turkey offers a good growth potential in terms of GDP for the next two years 2018-2019 with the real rate 5% as a minimum. This is driven by governmental fiscal stimulus and the increase of export. And I read many analysts bet on strong growth dynamics of Turkish economy. Main factors are oil price growth (export), internal consumption strengthening and attraction of new foreign investments, these drivers seem to continue feeding up the economy growth, although the increase might slow down to more moderate levels in mid-term. The growth in internal consumption is also base on the clear reduction dynamic of unemployment rate. Also, many tourists are coming back (e.g. from Russia) which makes businesses to be more optimistic for near future

[Positive] Teg: Argentina

Most sources say that the economy of Argentine is expected to accelerate in 2018 and 2019 on the grounds of the increase of consumption and investments in fixed assets. I remember that they want to raise infrastructure's investments by 20% this year. It is very nice and promising for businesses which engaged in mineral resource extraction, agricultural and chemical sector, well would be done and for the others in total. In such scenario GDP would expand minimum by 3% this year and by 4% in 2019. It is also worth to note (on my opinion this is important) that the government announce to cut the spending's on state apparatus. Nonetheless, this in total is ideal picture. To be skeptical for GDP, I guess adequate rates for 2018 and 2019 are 2% and 2.5%

[Negative] Teg: United Kingdom

I would suggest that all situation over Skripal Case was done by internal forces of Great Britain itself, by the community against Teresa Mai. I believe that they just set her up (to make her as a scapegoat). This is the easiest way and method for internal political struggle. Well, this in coupe with high level of debt against European Union due to Brexit leaves us with no driver for growth in economy of Great Britain. At least, very modest opportunities.

[Positive] Teg: France

I guess that economic growth of France has remained solid. The government plans: (a) to decrease the share of government spending by 3 p.p. (in terms of GDP) over the next 2 years (2018-2019), incl. cutbacks in subsidised jobs and housing subsidies, (b) to reduce corporate income tax from 33% to 25%, (c) to cut in capital income, wealth and taxes on property.

[Negative] Teg: Russia

It is arguable but many experts are inclined to think that small and middle-scaled firms constitute the core of the economy of any country. If so, Russia is facing problems in its development, no economic dynamism, there is no environment in which we can expect innovation or entrepreneurship for such small and middle scaled business. But other experts thinks that backing on the experience of modern China and by-gone USSR they showed that the core of economy is government-linked large scale business. I think that both points of views are worth to take, but the level of corruption of Russia is very high and this is the major drawback, impediment of any possible development in Russia, excluding the military sector that is of direct control of Mr. Putin. But military sector may not balance the economy towards to a steady path of development.

[Negative] Teg: United States

Trump administration and al around political situation add more uncertainly of the opportunity of return rate on investment, that would surely restrain new investors to spend. Also, we need to particularly emphasis the movements of the USA government toward trade protectionism (e.g. 25% import duty on series of china products). This brings us more economic risk in the USA due to the answer from China in trade wars game. The next step from the USA I would expect (a) restrains in foreign investments from China into the USA and (b) defense of intellectual property (copyrights) of US companies (we know how Chinese producers have been copying western brands). All these put more pressure on economic outlook. But I would expect the real GDP growth would be limited by c2% for the next two years

[Neutral] Teg: Japan

In Japan, growth trend is set to be maintained in 2018, but weaken thereafter as fiscal policy will benefit from planned consumption tax increase. I revised the growth less than 1% for the next years. As I think there is only one possibility to climb at 1% on even more is the expected growth of Global Demand, obviously from Main 3 (USA, China, EU). As per the USA and China - new incentives over softening of tax burdens on corporates - expected to be aggressive using Trump's words. Thus, import is the main driver for the economy of Japan. As It is easy to overestimate the influence of imports, I would tag neutral on the economy of Japan.

[Neutral] Teg: Canada

Economic growth rate I expect to slow in the next two years as household consumption and government spending slows. Recent developments in consumption has not been transferred to the increase in wages and I think that house prices will continues to slow, no considerable job growth (if any at all). They also did not announced any substantial government investments. Thus, I project the growth of Canadian economy to ease

[Positive] Teg: United States

Only positive signal is that the USA tax policy changes (I mean corporate tax increase) that would probable boost the recovery of economy - positive impact. Unemployment rate is low and continues to be at its natural level (4-5%). According to the key economic indicators the outlook for the US economy is healthy. I would suggest the estimation of real GDP to be within 2-3% for 2018-2020. Nonetheless President Trump promised to increase growth to 4 per cent, let's see.

[Neutral] Teg: Brazil

Brazil is going through real serious budget problems: aging of population with the trimming of social security spending. This is the main drawback for growth potentials of the country . Most people thinks the future election may help. I am skeptical to this. I would suggest to increase pension age and to invest heavily on to the sectors to replace imports.

[Positive] Teg: China

At the moment most annalists emphasize that this year China are faced with threats and so called big worries: (a) US tax reform which result in capital flow from China into the US, (b) tightening of financial and environmental regulations, (c) slowdown of housing and infrastructure construction in 2018-2019

[Negative] Teg: Argentina

Some businesses would be upset if they (as it was announced by the Government) cut economic subsidies mainly for energy and transport. I do not think that for these funds they (the government) may find more efficient application in others sectors if the money really be transferred to any of demanding sectors at all. I bet that the funds will go to government itself (for their internal needs) as it was in Argentina history from time to time.

[Positive] Teg: Germany

In most cases (I mean when reading articles written by analysts) the outlook for German economy is promising. They are assumed to implement the policy of wages increase, infrastructure projects. These would boost an inflation (what we know is not bad but indeed positive when it is moderate). The political elite I think must reduce the power of sanction against Russia, I calculated that Germany may easy earn min. 25-30 bn euro. Of course this lies on political grounds and indeterminable in mid-term future.

[Positive] Teg: Turkey

As emerging economy Turkey offers the best investment case in terms of growth and downside risk in oil-linked shares. Due to positive dynamic in world oil prices as I estimate to be limited to 70 USD per barrel for 2018 year

[Neutral] Teg: Australia

All I know good news for export sector that is they are investing in new LNG (liquefied natural gas) capacity to carry it to China.

[Negative] Teg: Australia

I scrutinizes over economist's outlook for the Australian economy in 2018, they are cautiously optimistic, driven largely by improving global conditions but I doubt that such a global conditions will improve. Indeed, do not see the solid reasons for it. Thus, I would put a negative tax on GDP. Also, not to forget the adverse statistic for household consumption in Australia which adds more uncertainty on it. I may refresh your memory - Australia has one of the highest debt-to-GDP ratios for houseless in the world. A little and sudden interest increase will lead to problems on debt servicing for households followed by well-known problems for economic growth

[Negative] Teg: Brazil

The Brazilian government one month ago announced that GDP this year (2018 will grow faster and they wait recovery from the recession for the past 10 years. This is for optimists. I do not see real activity (as you know some big steps) to resolve structural problems in economy. Look, all they wants to do is to narrow a budget deficit by curtailing the social security system. This will not help. Obviously imho.

[Positive] Teg: Saudi Arabia

The economy of Saudi Arabia is primary linked to oil price. For the next 2-3 years most analyst bet on steady growth in oil price, thus, It is likely to forecast economic growth. You know, that the government recently announced that it expects 2.7% GDP real growth rate. On this estimate I would doubt. Last year the government struggled against low oil market by spending cuts in order to lower budget deficit. Now the government plans to raise internal consumer spending by extra payment for government workers and the introduction of value-added taxation (VAT) reform. These all may strive GDP up to 2.0% - 2.1% growth maximum (as per the expectation of barrel of oil at $70).