G20, Real GDP YOY%
G20, Real GDP YOY%
Saudi Arabia2.1-
South Africa0.91.611.71.91.8
South Korea2.
United Kingdom1.
United States1.
[Neutral] Teg: Brazil

Brazil is going through real serious budget problems: aging of population with the trimming of social security spending. This is the main drawback for growth potentials of the country . Most people thinks the future election may help. I am skeptical to this. I would suggest to increase pension age and to invest heavily on to the sectors to replace imports.

[Negative] Teg: Germany

I guess that aging society of German is the main challenge for its economy. In the logic the government should accelerate special education for immigrants in order to promote solid economic growth. But of course this is very sensible thing which may be in the agenda in minimum 5 years.

[Neutral] Teg: Australia

All I know good news for export sector that is they are investing in new LNG (liquefied natural gas) capacity to carry it to China.

[Positive] Teg: France

I guess that economic growth of France has remained solid. The government plans: (a) to decrease the share of government spending by 3 p.p. (in terms of GDP) over the next 2 years (2018-2019), incl. cutbacks in subsidised jobs and housing subsidies, (b) to reduce corporate income tax from 33% to 25%, (c) to cut in capital income, wealth and taxes on property.

[Neutral] Teg: Japan

In Japan, growth trend is set to be maintained in 2018, but weaken thereafter as fiscal policy will benefit from planned consumption tax increase. I revised the growth less than 1% for the next years. As I think there is only one possibility to climb at 1% on even more is the expected growth of Global Demand, obviously from Main 3 (USA, China, EU). As per the USA and China - new incentives over softening of tax burdens on corporates - expected to be aggressive using Trump's words. Thus, import is the main driver for the economy of Japan. As It is easy to overestimate the influence of imports, I would tag neutral on the economy of Japan.

[Positive] Teg: Saudi Arabia

The economy is expected to benefit this 2018 year from higher oil prices reflecting the success of cuts by OPEC and allies and strong as expected global growth compared to 2017. This additional revenue will help to boost internal consumption which constitute around the half of SA GDP. I would suggest a gradual growth in GDP from 2.2% in 2018 up to 2.5% in 2021. Also, the government announced privatization of Saudi Aramco and some others assets, this should attract more foreign investors to Saudi Arabia. If it happens it would be the greatest oil stock IPO with the total value of more than 1.5 trillions of dolor (I am measuring by Price-to-Reserves multiple). How many shares the Government would offer we do not know but it is rationale around 5%-10% in IPO, which would result in 75-150 billion of dollars. This is a good sign for investors and opportunities that Saudi Arabia offers if they would not postpone privatization as it was...

[Neutral] Teg: Canada

I expect that Canada will be able to continue its stable growth: IMF's forecast for GDP growth in 2018 is ~2.1%, unemployment rate is at the lowest level since 70s (5.8%). However, despite all these obvious signs of recovery, one should note some concerns: 1) NAFTA renegotiation. USA is very important market for Canada (2/3 of export) and, thus, NAFTA is very important agreement for Canada (that makes Canadian products competitive on US market). However, now the future of NAFTA is questionable. Moreover, taking into account Trump's protectionist policy, I consider the case for USA to withdraw from a treaty as rather probable. 2) Household debt. According to OECD, households in Canada have the highest debt-to-income ratio (> 100%) in the developed world. Coupled with the lowest unemployment rate, I consider these as a fundamental internal constraints for Canada's long-term growth. 3) US tax reform. On the one hand, this reform is likely to support US GDP growth and, consequently, Canada's GDP growth (as Canadian economy is heavily reliant on US economy). However, on the other hand, lower corporate tax was one of the Canada's competitive advantages (comparing with USA), and, consequently, this reform is likely to decrease foreign direct investments. 4) Higher US Fed interest rate. It is likely that US Fed will increase interest rate. And the net result for Canada is rather questionable. On the one hand, that will likely lead to Canadian dollar weakening and, thus, Canadian export support. On the other hand, US dollar strengthening will lead to world economy slowing down.

[Negative] Teg: Italy

I think that domestic demand growth in Italy and positive outlook for the euro zone economy will be completely offset by political instability in the country. Political uncertainty has increased the potential for financial volatility and could harm the current moderate economic recovery, as well as further postpone of structural reforms at least in the short term. In spite of the possible support by the EU, Italy's high public debt and political instability will continue to give rise to concern for the major euro zone creditor countries, as well as put pressure on stability in the EU and financial sector.

[Negative] Teg: Turkey

After rapid increase in real GDP at the end of 2017 (+3.3% in 2016 vs +7.3% in 2017), supported by government stimulus measures and credit guarantees, as well as political pressure on banks to provide a loans and improved export competitiveness, I expect that in 2018 the Turkey's economic growth will slow down to 4%. This slowdown will reflect the impact of tax boost, higher interest rates, tightening of global liquidity against the backdrop of weaker Turkish Lira, increased inherent instability and higher inflation. As a result all planned government measures to increase employment and investment, will be fully blocked by these negative factors. In addition, foreign capital inflows will be offset by political instability in line with the transition to a presidential system of government, domestic financial vulnerability and lower interest rate in comparison with the developed economies.

[Negative] Teg: United Kingdom

I think that the negative merchandise trade balance will remain the current account in deficit over 2018-2022, offsetting surpluses on the services account. More importantly I expect that UK economy will slowing down its growth since 2021 against the backdrop of the looser trade relations with the EU to mean a larger goods trade deficit and a smaller services surplus. Also I don't believe that UK's policymakers will be able to implement structural reforms in the near-term that have crippled the economy in recent years, including weak productivity growth, ineffective innovation and poor infrastructure. So my outlook on British economy is negative.

[Positive] Teg: Argentina

Most sources say that the economy of Argentine is expected to accelerate in 2018 and 2019 on the grounds of the increase of consumption and investments in fixed assets. I remember that they want to raise infrastructure's investments by 20% this year. It is very nice and promising for businesses which engaged in mineral resource extraction, agricultural and chemical sector, well would be done and for the others in total. In such scenario GDP would expand minimum by 3% this year and by 4% in 2019. It is also worth to note (on my opinion this is important) that the government announce to cut the spending's on state apparatus. Nonetheless, this in total is ideal picture. To be skeptical for GDP, I guess adequate rates for 2018 and 2019 are 2% and 2.5%

[Neutral] Teg: Canada

Economic growth rate I expect to slow in the next two years as household consumption and government spending slows. Recent developments in consumption has not been transferred to the increase in wages and I think that house prices will continues to slow, no considerable job growth (if any at all). They also did not announced any substantial government investments. Thus, I project the growth of Canadian economy to ease

[Negative] Teg: Brazil

The Brazilian government one month ago announced that GDP this year (2018 will grow faster and they wait recovery from the recession for the past 10 years. This is for optimists. I do not see real activity (as you know some big steps) to resolve structural problems in economy. Look, all they wants to do is to narrow a budget deficit by curtailing the social security system. This will not help. Obviously imho.

[Positive] Teg: Germany

In most cases (I mean when reading articles written by analysts) the outlook for German economy is promising. They are assumed to implement the policy of wages increase, infrastructure projects. These would boost an inflation (what we know is not bad but indeed positive when it is moderate). The political elite I think must reduce the power of sanction against Russia, I calculated that Germany may easy earn min. 25-30 bn euro. Of course this lies on political grounds and indeterminable in mid-term future.

[Positive] Teg: Turkey

As emerging economy Turkey offers the best investment case in terms of growth and downside risk in oil-linked shares. Due to positive dynamic in world oil prices as I estimate to be limited to 70 USD per barrel for 2018 year

[Negative] Teg: South Africa

In spite of installation of Cyril Ramaphosa as the new president and following increasing confidence from the international community and investors, I don't have positive outlook for the South African economy. Tighter fiscal policy and a rise of taxes to keep debt under control and prevent additional credit downgrades, will impede efforts to boost growth. Also structural constraints such as skills shortages and inefficient state-owned companies will continue to weaken economic activity, as well as negative external balance will affect the economic growth in the mid-term.

[Negative] Teg: China

There are rumors that in light of china's currency depreciation, the central bank is likely to tighten liquidity. Obviously, it will raise further concerns in relation to the growth outlook of China. I explain: the US tax reform is underway, and once to be carried out this will cause interest rate increase in the US market, the will result in capital flow from China into the US and will ultimately weaken the yuan. Thus I think that GDP growth will slow.

[Negative] Teg: Italy

Italy faces significant challenges this year and the next 2019. In most sources It is cited that Italy is the potential highest risk factor for the whole Eurozone. It is suffering from high level of public debt (140% of GDP as of Jan-2018), thus banking systems of Italy needs to be largely restructured (but impossible under Eurozone rules). Due to fundamental weakness of the economy, we can not expect any improvements in Mid-term horizon. Also, Political risks add more challenges, I mean that the leader of euro-sceptic Italy's Five Star Movement might come to power in May 2018, one of their hot idea is so-called Italexit seems to be likely, I mean the political actions about it, practically not (at the earliest in 2022). Also, as matter of fact at founding of Party in 2009 the party was anti-Vladimir Putin, but it has since become much more pro-Russia. More likely that after election the political process of independence and pro-Russia will be the same as in Greece. Over

[Positive] Teg: Saudi Arabia

The economy of Saudi Arabia is primary linked to oil price. For the next 2-3 years most analyst bet on steady growth in oil price, thus, It is likely to forecast economic growth. You know, that the government recently announced that it expects 2.7% GDP real growth rate. On this estimate I would doubt. Last year the government struggled against low oil market by spending cuts in order to lower budget deficit. Now the government plans to raise internal consumer spending by extra payment for government workers and the introduction of value-added taxation (VAT) reform. These all may strive GDP up to 2.0% - 2.1% growth maximum (as per the expectation of barrel of oil at $70).

[Positive] Teg: Canada

European import is the main driver for the economy of Canada. As per official sources of EU officers they are not expect any increase of imports of goods. In contrary China and US market's tend to increase import from Canadian business. Thus, I put moderate increase in GDP for the next 2 years