G20, Real GDP YOY%
2016201720182019E2020E2021E
G20, Real GDP YOY%1.82.41.521.92.9
Argentina-3.13.9-3.5-0.42.73.2
Australia2.12.82.82.82.72.7
Brazil-2.71.41.32.52.52.2
Canada1.532.121.71.8
China6.76.86.56.266
France0.92.71.41.61.51.7
Germany1.82.61.11.61.51.4
India6.86.37.17.37.47.5
Indonesia55.15.25.15.35.6
Italy0.91.70.710.91
Japan0.92.10.90.50.7
Mexico2.11.52.52.12.12.9
Russia-0.21.51.51.61.5
Saudi Arabia2.1-1.41.62.42.12.1
South Africa0.91.611.71.91.8
South Korea2.93.12.62.62.8
Turkey3.112.93.6
United Kingdom1.91.81.51.61.5
United States1.52.22.51.91.8
[Negative] Teg: United States

Trump administration and al around political situation add more uncertainly of the opportunity of return rate on investment, that would surely restrain new investors to spend. Also, we need to particularly emphasis the movements of the USA government toward trade protectionism (e.g. 25% import duty on series of china products). This brings us more economic risk in the USA due to the answer from China in trade wars game. The next step from the USA I would expect (a) restrains in foreign investments from China into the USA and (b) defense of intellectual property (copyrights) of US companies (we know how Chinese producers have been copying western brands). All these put more pressure on economic outlook. But I would expect the real GDP growth would be limited by c2% for the next two years

[Negative] Teg: Russia

It is arguable but many experts are inclined to think that small and middle-scaled firms constitute the core of the economy of any country. If so, Russia is facing problems in its development, no economic dynamism, there is no environment in which we can expect innovation or entrepreneurship for such small and middle scaled business. But other experts thinks that backing on the experience of modern China and by-gone USSR they showed that the core of economy is government-linked large scale business. I think that both points of views are worth to take, but the level of corruption of Russia is very high and this is the major drawback, impediment of any possible development in Russia, excluding the military sector that is of direct control of Mr. Putin. But military sector may not balance the economy towards to a steady path of development.

[Positive] Teg: France

I guess that economic growth of France has remained solid. The government plans: (a) to decrease the share of government spending by 3 p.p. (in terms of GDP) over the next 2 years (2018-2019), incl. cutbacks in subsidised jobs and housing subsidies, (b) to reduce corporate income tax from 33% to 25%, (c) to cut in capital income, wealth and taxes on property.

[Negative] Teg: United Kingdom

I would suggest that all situation over Skripal Case was done by internal forces of Great Britain itself, by the community against Teresa Mai. I believe that they just set her up (to make her as a scapegoat). This is the easiest way and method for internal political struggle. Well, this in coupe with high level of debt against European Union due to Brexit leaves us with no driver for growth in economy of Great Britain. At least, very modest opportunities.

[Positive] Teg: Argentina

Most sources say that the economy of Argentine is expected to accelerate in 2018 and 2019 on the grounds of the increase of consumption and investments in fixed assets. I remember that they want to raise infrastructure's investments by 20% this year. It is very nice and promising for businesses which engaged in mineral resource extraction, agricultural and chemical sector, well would be done and for the others in total. In such scenario GDP would expand minimum by 3% this year and by 4% in 2019. It is also worth to note (on my opinion this is important) that the government announce to cut the spending's on state apparatus. Nonetheless, this in total is ideal picture. To be skeptical for GDP, I guess adequate rates for 2018 and 2019 are 2% and 2.5%

[Positive] Teg: Turkey

Turkey offers a good growth potential in terms of GDP for the next two years 2018-2019 with the real rate 5% as a minimum. This is driven by governmental fiscal stimulus and the increase of export. And I read many analysts bet on strong growth dynamics of Turkish economy. Main factors are oil price growth (export), internal consumption strengthening and attraction of new foreign investments, these drivers seem to continue feeding up the economy growth, although the increase might slow down to more moderate levels in mid-term. The growth in internal consumption is also base on the clear reduction dynamic of unemployment rate. Also, many tourists are coming back (e.g. from Russia) which makes businesses to be more optimistic for near future

[Negative] Teg: China

There are rumors that in light of china's currency depreciation, the central bank is likely to tighten liquidity. Obviously, it will raise further concerns in relation to the growth outlook of China. I explain: the US tax reform is underway, and once to be carried out this will cause interest rate increase in the US market, the will result in capital flow from China into the US and will ultimately weaken the yuan. Thus I think that GDP growth will slow.

[Negative] Teg: Germany

I guess that aging society of German is the main challenge for its economy. In the logic the government should accelerate special education for immigrants in order to promote solid economic growth. But of course this is very sensible thing which may be in the agenda in minimum 5 years.