G20, Real GDP YOY%
2016201720182019E2020E2021E
G20, Real GDP YOY%1.82.41.521.92.9
Argentina-3.13.9-3.5-0.42.73.2
Australia2.12.82.82.82.72.7
Brazil-2.71.41.32.52.52.2
Canada1.532.121.71.8
China6.76.86.56.266
France0.92.71.41.61.51.7
Germany1.82.61.11.61.51.4
India6.86.37.17.37.47.5
Indonesia55.15.25.15.35.6
Italy0.91.70.710.91
Japan0.92.10.90.50.7
Mexico2.11.52.52.12.12.9
Russia-0.21.51.51.61.5
Saudi Arabia2.1-1.41.62.42.12.1
South Africa0.91.611.71.91.8
South Korea2.93.12.62.62.8
Turkey3.112.93.6
United Kingdom1.91.81.51.61.5
United States1.52.22.51.91.8
[Positive] Teg: Russia

Russian economy is coming out of recession stronger and more stable than before despite western financial sanctions. Russian banks and companies considerable reduced their dependence on foreign debt. Personally, I am focused and domiciled in the USA and now I am becoming more interesting in the opportunity that offers Russian economy. As shown by many macro indicators, Russian economy has easily survived and is clearly not torn to ribbons while some high-ranking western officials cried from every corner. In my opinion, for the last 2 years many investors were forced to turn their backs from Russia that of course caused investing deficit, but now I suppose it is right time to come back, And I am highly likely to expect better growth in 2019 as the latest

[Positive] Teg: Mexico

In 2017 foreign investments in Mexico fell due to uncertainty relating to USA commitments to NAFTA. This will result in poor growth of GDP for 2018. This goes together with domestic policy uncertainty remains until presidential election on 1st July 2018. After, I would suggest that we may expect pro-American president thus we may expect positive shifts in policy (mainly renegotiation of NAFTA with the USA). Growth in Mexico seems to be moderately higher in 2019 and 2020, at 2.5-2.7 percent per annum but this year 2018 - poor 1.0% - 1.9%

[Positive] Teg: Australia

Australian representatives two or three years in a row talks about rebalancing to non-mining sector through government investments into it. They plans tax relief for business (a gradual reduction) by 5 p.p. They do it on the pace of the Trumps attempt for aggressive tax rate cuts for businesses. This is rather good news for industry. thanks'. This will generate jobs and helps to raise sluggish economic development into somewhat measurable.

[Positive] Teg: India

In most analysts report the outlook for India is largely positive notwithstanding the fact of its slowdown in 2017. Such a growth 7.3%-7.5% for the next two years 2018-2019 adds economy of India as a fastest growing emerging market in Asia and in the world. I would quote factors from UN report: positive forecast is supported by robust private consumption and public investment as well as ongoing structural reforms. Indian government plans to improve Goods and Service Tax as well as Bankruptcy Code which will lead to more efficient trend of growth in Long-run. Once the government of India continues to carry out structural reforms, prudent macro policies and redistribute towards infrastructural project - we may really bet a lot into India's outlook - merely 8% per year in GDP terms.

[Negative] Teg: United Kingdom

Private consumption slows due to increase of inflation which limits real spending's of households, all investments are depressed by Brexit. Gloomy projections of real GDP growth.

[Negative] Teg: Italy

Italy faces significant challenges this year and the next 2019. In most sources It is cited that Italy is the potential highest risk factor for the whole Eurozone. It is suffering from high level of public debt (140% of GDP as of Jan-2018), thus banking systems of Italy needs to be largely restructured (but impossible under Eurozone rules). Due to fundamental weakness of the economy, we can not expect any improvements in Mid-term horizon. Also, Political risks add more challenges, I mean that the leader of euro-sceptic Italy's Five Star Movement might come to power in May 2018, one of their hot idea is so-called Italexit seems to be likely, I mean the political actions about it, practically not (at the earliest in 2022). Also, as matter of fact at founding of Party in 2009 the party was anti-Vladimir Putin, but it has since become much more pro-Russia. More likely that after election the political process of independence and pro-Russia will be the same as in Greece. Over

[Positive] Teg: Canada

European import is the main driver for the economy of Canada. As per official sources of EU officers they are not expect any increase of imports of goods. In contrary China and US market's tend to increase import from Canadian business. Thus, I put moderate increase in GDP for the next 2 years

[Positive] Teg: Russia

I heard that notwithstanding the sanctions a lot of German businessmen are keen to invest and 2-3 times more right after the presidential election. I personally met about 10 good wealth persons. In my estimates this would give 2-3pp. more in GDP. I bet that Russia is one of the top country to invest in amidst emerging markets.

[Positive] Teg: Saudi Arabia

The economy of Saudi Arabia is primary linked to oil price. For the next 2-3 years most analyst bet on steady growth in oil price, thus, It is likely to forecast economic growth. You know, that the government recently announced that it expects 2.7% GDP real growth rate. On this estimate I would doubt. Last year the government struggled against low oil market by spending cuts in order to lower budget deficit. Now the government plans to raise internal consumer spending by extra payment for government workers and the introduction of value-added taxation (VAT) reform. These all may strive GDP up to 2.0% - 2.1% growth maximum (as per the expectation of barrel of oil at $70).

[Negative] Teg: Brazil

The Brazilian government one month ago announced that GDP this year (2018 will grow faster and they wait recovery from the recession for the past 10 years. This is for optimists. I do not see real activity (as you know some big steps) to resolve structural problems in economy. Look, all they wants to do is to narrow a budget deficit by curtailing the social security system. This will not help. Obviously imho.

[Neutral] Teg: Australia

All I know good news for export sector that is they are investing in new LNG (liquefied natural gas) capacity to carry it to China.

[Negative] Teg: Australia

I scrutinizes over economist's outlook for the Australian economy in 2018, they are cautiously optimistic, driven largely by improving global conditions but I doubt that such a global conditions will improve. Indeed, do not see the solid reasons for it. Thus, I would put a negative tax on GDP. Also, not to forget the adverse statistic for household consumption in Australia which adds more uncertainty on it. I may refresh your memory - Australia has one of the highest debt-to-GDP ratios for houseless in the world. A little and sudden interest increase will lead to problems on debt servicing for households followed by well-known problems for economic growth

[Positive] Teg: Germany

In most cases (I mean when reading articles written by analysts) the outlook for German economy is promising. They are assumed to implement the policy of wages increase, infrastructure projects. These would boost an inflation (what we know is not bad but indeed positive when it is moderate). The political elite I think must reduce the power of sanction against Russia, I calculated that Germany may easy earn min. 25-30 bn euro. Of course this lies on political grounds and indeterminable in mid-term future.

[Positive] Teg: Turkey

As emerging economy Turkey offers the best investment case in terms of growth and downside risk in oil-linked shares. Due to positive dynamic in world oil prices as I estimate to be limited to 70 USD per barrel for 2018 year

[Negative] Teg: Argentina

Some businesses would be upset if they (as it was announced by the Government) cut economic subsidies mainly for energy and transport. I do not think that for these funds they (the government) may find more efficient application in others sectors if the money really be transferred to any of demanding sectors at all. I bet that the funds will go to government itself (for their internal needs) as it was in Argentina history from time to time.

[Positive] Teg: China

At the moment most annalists emphasize that this year China are faced with threats and so called big worries: (a) US tax reform which result in capital flow from China into the US, (b) tightening of financial and environmental regulations, (c) slowdown of housing and infrastructure construction in 2018-2019

[Neutral] Teg: Brazil

Brazil is going through real serious budget problems: aging of population with the trimming of social security spending. This is the main drawback for growth potentials of the country . Most people thinks the future election may help. I am skeptical to this. I would suggest to increase pension age and to invest heavily on to the sectors to replace imports.

[Positive] Teg: United States

Only positive signal is that the USA tax policy changes (I mean corporate tax increase) that would probable boost the recovery of economy - positive impact. Unemployment rate is low and continues to be at its natural level (4-5%). According to the key economic indicators the outlook for the US economy is healthy. I would suggest the estimation of real GDP to be within 2-3% for 2018-2020. Nonetheless President Trump promised to increase growth to 4 per cent, let's see.

[Neutral] Teg: Canada

Economic growth rate I expect to slow in the next two years as household consumption and government spending slows. Recent developments in consumption has not been transferred to the increase in wages and I think that house prices will continues to slow, no considerable job growth (if any at all). They also did not announced any substantial government investments. Thus, I project the growth of Canadian economy to ease

[Neutral] Teg: Japan

In Japan, growth trend is set to be maintained in 2018, but weaken thereafter as fiscal policy will benefit from planned consumption tax increase. I revised the growth less than 1% for the next years. As I think there is only one possibility to climb at 1% on even more is the expected growth of Global Demand, obviously from Main 3 (USA, China, EU). As per the USA and China - new incentives over softening of tax burdens on corporates - expected to be aggressive using Trump's words. Thus, import is the main driver for the economy of Japan. As It is easy to overestimate the influence of imports, I would tag neutral on the economy of Japan.