G20, Real GDP YOY%
G20, Real GDP YOY%
Saudi Arabia4.32.1-
South Africa0.60.91.322.31.8
South Korea2.
United Kingdom2.
United States2.
[Negative] Teg: United Kingdom

I think that the negative merchandise trade balance will remain the current account in deficit over 2018-2022, offsetting surpluses on the services account. More importantly I expect that UK economy will slowing down its growth since 2021 against the backdrop of the looser trade relations with the EU to mean a larger goods trade deficit and a smaller services surplus. Also I don't believe that UK's policymakers will be able to implement structural reforms in the near-term that have crippled the economy in recent years, including weak productivity growth, ineffective innovation and poor infrastructure. So my outlook on British economy is negative.

[Positive] Teg: United States

Over the last year, the US economy has made a profit on combination of stable growth, strengthening leading indicators, modest inflation, as well as gradually rising interest rates. And I think US will continue its growing tendency in 2018-2022. Also the US manufacturing sector is demonstrating the strongest expansion since 2011 and in my view will lead to increasing in manufacturing jobs. In addition I don't expect that US-China trade tensions will make direct negative impact on the US economy, so I bet on further sustained growth of the country?s economy.

[Positive] Teg: Russia

Russia's economy is highly depends on oil prices and I expect that the global oil prices will continue its bullish trend. Following OPEC's meeting in June, Russia is expected to increase oil production. Against the backdrop of the rising oil prices, Russia's trade surplus should significantly increase in 2018. Also I expect that the current account to remain in surplus in 2018-2022, driven by strong trade surpluses. Sanctions against Russia made negative effect on the foreign direct investment inflows, however I expect that these inflows will recover in 2019-2022. I believe in Russia's economy and bet on its stable growth in the mid-term.

Laura S. Dixon I would argue that Russian economy is highly dependent on oil and gas. It  is about 35% in my judgement. Military development is the main driver for Russia, especialy their business in Syria in order to manage oil prices  
[Positive] Teg: Mexico

In spite of Mexico-US tensions, I expect further growth of the country's economy, which will be provided by increasing industrial production. The Mexican peso's depreciation will push the external demand for Mexican products, which in turn will make a positive impact on local manufacturing production and exports. Also mining production will continue to support total industrial production growth, as well as construction activity will continue to expand. In sum, my positive outlook on Mexico's economy reflects sustainable growth in the mid-term.

[Negative] Teg: Japan

The government announced a new annual economic policy package in June, which were added economic reforms and an investment strategy for revitalization of the country. However, I don't expect that this year's plan to stimulate the economy and decrease the fiscal deficit will be achieved, due to pressure from an ageing population. Anyway if implementation of the policy would be successful, I think all growth prospects would be overlapped by increasing tensions in global commerce caused by destructive US trade policy. Therefore it's not clear for me how this year's economic results could recover Japan's economy and achieve the government's measures to stimulate growth and inflation.

[Negative] Teg: China

I expect the slowdown in China's economic growth in the near-term, driven by reduction in domestic demand, which would be the main constraint on achieving ambitious plan of the government for economic expansion. Also I think that slowdown in industrial production will continue its negative trend and will lead to volatility in domestic financial markets, based on concerns about risks related to the trade outlook. Probably, US-China trade tensions will fresh strain and will make a negative direct impact on the Chinese economy. That's why I have bearish view on China's economy in the mid-term.

[Negative] Teg: Canada

I think that exchange rate, commodity prices and strong US economy will keep deficit of the external account of Canada in 2018-2022. Apart from oil, I expect low commodity prices in coming years and this will make negative impact on the current-account. Now we see healthy private consumption, which supported by continued strong household spending against the backdrop of the low interest rates, cheap fuel and an improving labour market. However, monetary policy tightening and increasing prices on the energy resources will slowdown in the private consumption in the near-term. Therefore I forecast slowdown in economic growth of Canada in 2018-2022.

[Negative] Teg: Mexico

Relations with the US, Mexico's dominant trade and investment partner, will continue to be foreign-policy priority for the country. I think that tension will persist, due to Donald Trump's determination to build a border wall and tighten restrictions on immigration, as well as his rigid position on trade. In addition, I see continuous risk in NAFTA negotiations, which are accompanied by disagreements. In my view uncertainty over NAFTA and Mexico's presidential elections will weaken business and consumer confidence in short-term, resulting in slowdown of capital inflows. Also I don't expect that education and other reforms implemented over the last years will reach their potential, due to weakness of government institutions. Weak public investment, significant dependence on import and high level of poverty (almost 50% of the population) will also impede economic growth. Therefore I have negative outlook for the economic development of Mexico.

[Neutral] Teg: Saudi Arabia

I expect that Saudi Arabian economy growth will accelerate on the back of higher oil price (thus, higher domestic demand) and higher oil production. Despite these results, risks remain high due to low economy diversification. That is why long-term stability of growth is rely on implemented National Transformation Program, and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salmana shows strong signal to investors longer-term commitment to continue the reforms. However, the question is about money for these reforms as budget deficit increasing. Additional factor that makes matters worse is increasing poverty level and, thus, increasing social unrest.

[Negative] Teg: United States

The US economy is one of the most diversified national economies in the world and has been leading the world economy for the last 100 years. The US is having strong growth momentum and I think this trend will continue in 2018-2019. The strong labour market data will keep the Federal Reserve on a steady path of monetary tightening, so I expect an additional rate increase during 2018-2019. Geopolitical concerns in Europe and better-than-expected economic data of the US are driving the price of US dollar, however, the renewed trade war jitters may pause US dollar's rising anytime. In addition, I expect further growth of the US economy given by significant support from the tax reform and the budgetary expenditure

[Negative] Teg: Turkey

After rapid increase in real GDP at the end of 2017 (+3.3% in 2016 vs +7.3% in 2017), supported by government stimulus measures and credit guarantees, as well as political pressure on banks to provide a loans and improved export competitiveness, I expect that in 2018 the Turkey's economic growth will slow down to 4%. This slowdown will reflect the impact of tax boost, higher interest rates, tightening of global liquidity against the backdrop of weaker Turkish Lira, increased inherent instability and higher inflation. As a result all planned government measures to increase employment and investment, will be fully blocked by these negative factors. In addition, foreign capital inflows will be offset by political instability in line with the transition to a presidential system of government, domestic financial vulnerability and lower interest rate in comparison with the developed economies.

[Negative] Teg: Indonesia

My negative outlook on Indonesia's economy reflects the ongoing deficit in merchandise trade balance, which will keep on during 2018-2022. The negative trend of trade balance will be formed by higher commodity prices, as well as Indonesia's strong demand for imported capital goods. The main Indonesia's exports will continue to be natural resources, which will be under pressure due to widening of tariffs on goods imported to the US and possibility of slowdown in China's economic growth. As a result, the trade surplus will not be enough to cover the solid deficit on the primary income account, which I expect to widen to 2022. This also reflects repatriation of funds by foreign firms, as well as an increase in borrowing costs related to Indonesia's large external bond debt, due to higher US interest rates.

[Positive] Teg: Russia

Russia's economy shows positive signs of recovery and returns to growth. The main engines of this recovery are: (1) improved and stable macroeconomic situation: low inflation, low unemployment rate, higher real wages (and, thus, domestic private demand), lower interest rates, etc., (2) improved business environment (e.g., Ease of doing business index, ranking of Russia: 2014 = 92, 2015 = 62, 2016 = 51, 2017 = 40, 2018 = 35), (3) favorable commodity prices. I assume that near-term risk associated with USA sanctions against Russian companies and USA increased import tariffs for steel and aluminum will not have significant effect for economy growth. However, there are some fundamental issues that could adversely affect Russian economy: (1) Russian banking system problems. Despite Central Bank's attempts to clean banking system, one should note that (a) these activities are rather costly (some estimate ~$40 ban up to now), (b) competitiveness is decreasing (as the share of private banks decreasing), (c) confidence of business in the banking system is low. (2) Decreasing productivity coupled with declining labor force (due to demographic). (3) Traditional dependence of Russian economy from oil and gas (mainly, due to high share of oil and gas income in Budget)

[Positive] Teg: Germany

Germany is in a boom phase, with growth rate ~2.5% (the highest since 2011, when growth rate was 3.7% on the back of post-crisis recovery). This growth is fueled by booming real estate market (due to low interest rates), global growth, increasing investments (due to capacity utilization is at the highs) and increasing domestic demand (due to increasing wages and decreasing unemployment which is at the lows). Fiscal policy is rather stable as well: moderate stimulus with budget balance in surplus. I assume that current growth of Germany is rather stable in near-term. However, in 1-2 years there is a risk that real estate market, one of the catalyst, would be overheated, thus, slowing down of growth is possible.

[Positive] Teg: Indonesia

I expect further growth of Indonesia's economy, which will be accompanied by real GDP growth of 5.1% per year in 2018-2022. Growth in private consumption will remain strong and especially will be supported by election-related spending in 2019, as populist government measures for supporting household consumption. According to my forecast, the government's efforts to increase the inflow of private investments (domestic and foreign) in infrastructure and manufacturing will ensure capital raising in the mid-term. As a result, gross fixed investment will increase by 5.6% on average in 2018-2022.

[Positive] Teg: China

I expect that China's economy growth will be more moderate in coming years (6 - 6.5%), however, that will mainly caused by Government's plan of 'high-quality development': reducing of imbalances in economy, reducing pollution, stabilization of financing sector. As a result, it is expected (1) further decline in investment due to capacity cuts and stricter pollution controls, (2) tighter credit conditions that will lead to demand decreasing. In the same time, government is likely to support the growth by fiscal stimulus (through SOE and infrastructure projects). I assume that long-term results could be mostly positive for China economy (despite lower growth in near-term). However, there are some challenges for Government in near and long-term perspective: 1) Possible trade war with USA (that could cost for China 1-2% of GDP growth). 2) Demographic: rapidly aging population, declining labor force (one of the key issue announced by The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, a leading government think tank). 3) Unemployment growth, particularly, due to planned reducing of imbalances in economy and capacity cuts. Coupled with rising living cost, this problem might create a social instability in China. 4) Local governments debts. Despite China conducts tighter monetary policy to stabilize its financing sector, the real situation with local governments debts is opaque (due to local government financing vehicles, public-private partnerships and possible faking reporting data)

[Positive] Teg: Brazil

I expect that Brazil's economy will continue to recover from downfall in 2015-2016, as well as weak growth in 2017, and will show annual average real GDP growth at 2.6% in 2018-2022. Lower inflation and interest rates are supporting the growth of private consumption, given by stimulating retail sales and improving household and company balance sheets. However, the credit growth is weak, due to the banks haven't adapted to the sharp decline in the policy rate. In my view, by implementing fiscal reforms and pursuing a sensible policy, the next government could increase the investment, after falling by 25% in 2015-2016, and provide stable economic growth in 2018-2022. Therefore I have positive outlook for Brazil's economy.

[Positive] Teg: Australia

I like Australia's ability to maintain economy growth above 2% pa for nearly 25 years (since 1993) and I expect that Australia has cloudless perspectives to continue this tendency at least in near-term (1-2 years). Major factors that will support this growth are (1) strong domestic demand (wage growth and government expenditure), (2) commodity price growth and export growth (despite export growth is slowing, I expect that demand for minerals and LNG in China will be able to fuel export growth from Australia). Nevertheless, there are some concerns that should be noted: (1) slowing labor market (unemployment rate above average, slowdown in jobs growth), (2) increased household debt (as a result of low interest rates)

[Positive] Teg: Japan

I think the government will continue the course of economic revival, which provides bold monetary and flexible fiscal policies, as well as structural reforms. Extension of these policies in 2018-2019 will mean that by 2020 Japan will have completed its longest period of economic recovery since the 1980s. The government will continue to implement structural reforms, however, I think it will be difficult for the country to achieve its ambitious goal of expanding the economy to $6 trn to 2021. In spite of the last weak results of private consumption and investment spending, I expect that Japan's real GDP will show stable growth averaging 1.2% a year in 2018-2022, given by the continued support of flexible fiscal policy and steady growth in external demand. In addition, in 2018-2022 I expect surplus in trade account provided by global goods export growth, restarting of more nuclear power plants, as well as increasing tourist arrivals, especially due to Olympics in 2020.

[Positive] Teg: South Korea

In the near-term, I assume that Korean economy will be able to show relatively high growth rate (~3% in 2018-19) as a result of export growth (especially, in semiconductor industry) and fiscal stimulus (through government expenses increasing). In the long term, economic outlook is hazy as it relies on the possibility to solve fundamental economic problems (high level of unemployment, population ageing, high power of large enterprises called chaebol and low level of competitiveness), as well as on external political factors (negative - USA might withdraw from free-trade agreement, positive - possible recovery of relationship with North Korea).