G10, Real GDP YOY%
2016201720182019E2020E2021E
G10, Real GDP YOY%1.72.42.121.81.8
Australia2.12.82.82.82.72.7
Canada1.532.121.71.8
Denmark20.92.31.91.61.8
Japan0.92.10.90.50.7
New Zealand3.82.72.72.82.82.9
Norway-0.83.81.62.321.9
Sweden2.62.61.721.91.9
Switzerland1.51.72.21.71.71.7
United Kingdom1.91.81.51.61.5
United States1.52.22.51.91.8
[Negative] Teg: Switzerland

The economy of Switzerland is standing still. I can not find any measurable drivers for upturn more that 1% GDP growth pre annum. Moreover, uncertainty over possible changes in income tax for firms provides some risk. Analysts estimates as 50-50 that the government would increase corporate taxes to cover as more as possible the debt level

[Negative] Teg: United Kingdom

I would suggest that all situation over Skripal Case was done by internal forces of Great Britain itself, by the community against Teresa Mai. I believe that they just set her up (to make her as a scapegoat). This is the easiest way and method for internal political struggle. Well, this in coupe with high level of debt against European Union due to Brexit leaves us with no driver for growth in economy of Great Britain. At least, very modest opportunities.

[Positive] Teg: Switzerland

I would suggest that in conformity with the manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Manager Index) which is at its highest since July 2010 and the services PMI also stands at very high levels. These leading factors give us positive signals for the economy of Switzerland in 2018-2019. Switzerland increases its export compared to others European countries. Internal consumption is expanding faster nowadays that in 2017 due to the decrease of unemployment rate and rising real wages. Thus, I think that real GDP of Swiss would show minimum 2% of growth in 2018

[Negative] Teg: United States

Trump administration and al around political situation add more uncertainly of the opportunity of return rate on investment, that would surely restrain new investors to spend. Also, we need to particularly emphasis the movements of the USA government toward trade protectionism (e.g. 25% import duty on series of china products). This brings us more economic risk in the USA due to the answer from China in trade wars game. The next step from the USA I would expect (a) restrains in foreign investments from China into the USA and (b) defense of intellectual property (copyrights) of US companies (we know how Chinese producers have been copying western brands). All these put more pressure on economic outlook. But I would expect the real GDP growth would be limited by c2% for the next two years

[Neutral] Teg: Japan

In Japan, growth trend is set to be maintained in 2018, but weaken thereafter as fiscal policy will benefit from planned consumption tax increase. I revised the growth less than 1% for the next years. As I think there is only one possibility to climb at 1% on even more is the expected growth of Global Demand, obviously from Main 3 (USA, China, EU). As per the USA and China - new incentives over softening of tax burdens on corporates - expected to be aggressive using Trump's words. Thus, import is the main driver for the economy of Japan. As It is easy to overestimate the influence of imports, I would tag neutral on the economy of Japan.

[Neutral] Teg: Canada

Economic growth rate I expect to slow in the next two years as household consumption and government spending slows. Recent developments in consumption has not been transferred to the increase in wages and I think that house prices will continues to slow, no considerable job growth (if any at all). They also did not announced any substantial government investments. Thus, I project the growth of Canadian economy to ease

[Positive] Teg: United States

Only positive signal is that the USA tax policy changes (I mean corporate tax increase) that would probable boost the recovery of economy - positive impact. Unemployment rate is low and continues to be at its natural level (4-5%). According to the key economic indicators the outlook for the US economy is healthy. I would suggest the estimation of real GDP to be within 2-3% for 2018-2020. Nonetheless President Trump promised to increase growth to 4 per cent, let's see.

[Negative] Teg: Australia

I scrutinizes over economist's outlook for the Australian economy in 2018, they are cautiously optimistic, driven largely by improving global conditions but I doubt that such a global conditions will improve. Indeed, do not see the solid reasons for it. Thus, I would put a negative tax on GDP. Also, not to forget the adverse statistic for household consumption in Australia which adds more uncertainty on it. I may refresh your memory - Australia has one of the highest debt-to-GDP ratios for houseless in the world. A little and sudden interest increase will lead to problems on debt servicing for households followed by well-known problems for economic growth

[Neutral] Teg: Australia

All I know good news for export sector that is they are investing in new LNG (liquefied natural gas) capacity to carry it to China.

[Positive] Teg: Canada

European import is the main driver for the economy of Canada. As per official sources of EU officers they are not expect any increase of imports of goods. In contrary China and US market's tend to increase import from Canadian business. Thus, I put moderate increase in GDP for the next 2 years

[Negative] Teg: United Kingdom

Private consumption slows due to increase of inflation which limits real spending's of households, all investments are depressed by Brexit. Gloomy projections of real GDP growth.

[Positive] Teg: Australia

Australian representatives two or three years in a row talks about rebalancing to non-mining sector through government investments into it. They plans tax relief for business (a gradual reduction) by 5 p.p. They do it on the pace of the Trumps attempt for aggressive tax rate cuts for businesses. This is rather good news for industry. thanks'. This will generate jobs and helps to raise sluggish economic development into somewhat measurable.

[Negative] Teg: Sweden

Growth will likely remain in 2018 as it was back to 2017. With interest rates in the country at -0.5%, holding cash in bank cost people some money, curiously but true. They need to reconsider monetary and fiscal policy to boost growth. Negative rates are widely criticized but Sweden seems not to turn against negative rates, as they just do not want to cap output and lessen real wages. I would argue on the efficiency of such a policy (this only gives the opportunity to earn by the government with tax and lessened obligations to pay on any debt - Sweden officials are collecting too much tax)

[Negative] Teg: United States

As the US economy is totally integrated into a global economy, Trumps efforts to bound imports of goods from China and Mexico would effect that in short-run the domestic US consumption should be reduced since the upward pressure of appreciated goods (we clearly understand how much of import good Americans consume. Thus, my estimation of real GDP to remain at a 1.8% in 2018 and 2% in 2019

[Negative] Teg: Switzerland

Interest rates in the country are -0.75%, holding cash in bank cost people money. They need to reconsider monetary and fiscal policy to boost growth. Negative rates are widely criticized, I also would argue on the efficiency of such a policy

[Negative] Teg: Japan

I expect that Japan economy will continue to grow with growth rate approximately equals to average growth rate in 2012-2017 (Abenomics beginning). The key driver for this is export growth (machinery, chemicals, and non-ferrous metals) due to weak yen and global economy growth. Monetary situation remains healthy as well: despite recent acceleration in inflation, its forecast is still below BoJ target. However, one should note several challenges for Japan economy: 1) Near-term challenges: (1) recent strengthening of yen that increases Japanese exporters concern, (2) weakness in consumer spending due to wages decreasing, as well as new housing construction falling. 2) Fundamental long-term challenge: planned increasing of national sales tax in 2019 from 8% to 10% to cover deficit in pension system (due to Japanese demographic situation). I assume that this will lead to economic growth slowing down (as in 2014 when this tax was increased from 5% to 8%)

[Neutral] Teg: United States

In the near term (1-2 year), I expect that Trump administration will be able to accelerate US economy growth: 1) 'Tax Cuts and Jobs Act' (that assumes decrease in corporate tax) and 'Bipartisan Budget Act of 2018' (that assumes to raise the spending limits for both defense and non-defense funding). 2) Protectionist policy: possible NAFTA cancelation, exit from TPP, recently announced import taxes for steel and aluminum, etc. However, one should note that even in near-term there are some issues that could limit the positive effect of proposed measures. First, unemployment rate is at the lows, thus, additional spending could lead to higher inflation (not real activity). Second, interest rates are likely to be risen that lower demand. Third, effect for real investment growth due to proposed tax cut could be overestimated (capital costs have been very low for a long time, but investment growth was modest). Nevertheless, I think that major concern is US economy's long-term perspective. Proposed measures will increase fragility of US economy due to increased risks and, as a result, I assume that negative scenario is quite possible: 1) higher interest rates: decreasing of demand on US Treasuries (as other assets will become more attractive) coupled with supply increasing (to finance proposed program), 2) significant decreasing in government stimulus after 2020 due to need to maintain increased debt with higher interest rate, 3) higher inflation, 4) overall cost increasing in economy as a result of protectionism

[Neutral] Teg: Canada

I expect that Canada will be able to continue its stable growth: IMF's forecast for GDP growth in 2018 is ~2.1%, unemployment rate is at the lowest level since 70s (5.8%). However, despite all these obvious signs of recovery, one should note some concerns: 1) NAFTA renegotiation. USA is very important market for Canada (2/3 of export) and, thus, NAFTA is very important agreement for Canada (that makes Canadian products competitive on US market). However, now the future of NAFTA is questionable. Moreover, taking into account Trump's protectionist policy, I consider the case for USA to withdraw from a treaty as rather probable. 2) Household debt. According to OECD, households in Canada have the highest debt-to-income ratio (> 100%) in the developed world. Coupled with the lowest unemployment rate, I consider these as a fundamental internal constraints for Canada's long-term growth. 3) US tax reform. On the one hand, this reform is likely to support US GDP growth and, consequently, Canada's GDP growth (as Canadian economy is heavily reliant on US economy). However, on the other hand, lower corporate tax was one of the Canada's competitive advantages (comparing with USA), and, consequently, this reform is likely to decrease foreign direct investments. 4) Higher US Fed interest rate. It is likely that US Fed will increase interest rate. And the net result for Canada is rather questionable. On the one hand, that will likely lead to Canadian dollar weakening and, thus, Canadian export support. On the other hand, US dollar strengthening will lead to world economy slowing down.

[Negative] Teg: United Kingdom

After Brexit referendum in 2016 UK economy growth rate is constantly decreasing (2015 = 2.3%, 2016 = 1.9%, 2017 = 1.8%). And I assume that full negative effect from both Brexit and entrenched UK economy problems will be felt by UK only in 2019 (planned exit from the EU is March 2019). 1) Productivity problem. During last decade UK's productivity growth is constantly slowing down. As a result, Office for Budget Responsibility's long-term productivity forecast was halved down to 1.2%. 2) Higher inflation due to weaker sterling and, thus, weaker consumer spending power due to Brexit. I assume that weaker consumer spending power is the major cause of slower UK economy growth. One should note that this negative effect is partially offset by industrial production and export growth on the back of weak sterling and global growth. However, I believe that this positive offset will be quite limited as real investments will decline due to political uncertainty. Additional consequence of this factor is accelerating (double-digit) growth in unsecured lending (however, current level of consumer debt to GDP is still below pre-crisis level). 3) UK/EU deal uncertainty. UK wants to maintain a special trading relationship with the EU after leaving EU, but EU, obviously, does not want to give UK such benefits. I assume that negative outcome for UK is quite probable. As a result, additional slowing of UK economy in 2019 is highly likely

[Positive] Teg: Japan

I think the government will continue the course of economic revival, which provides bold monetary and flexible fiscal policies, as well as structural reforms. Extension of these policies in 2018-2019 will mean that by 2020 Japan will have completed its longest period of economic recovery since the 1980s. The government will continue to implement structural reforms, however, I think it will be difficult for the country to achieve its ambitious goal of expanding the economy to $6 trn to 2021. In spite of the last weak results of private consumption and investment spending, I expect that Japan's real GDP will show stable growth averaging 1.2% a year in 2018-2022, given by the continued support of flexible fiscal policy and steady growth in external demand. In addition, in 2018-2022 I expect surplus in trade account provided by global goods export growth, restarting of more nuclear power plants, as well as increasing tourist arrivals, especially due to Olympics in 2020.