G10, Real GDP YOY%
2016201720182019E2020E2021E
G10, Real GDP YOY%1.72.42.121.81.8
Australia2.12.82.82.82.72.7
Canada1.532.121.71.8
Denmark20.92.31.91.61.8
Japan0.92.10.90.50.7
New Zealand3.82.72.72.82.82.9
Norway-0.83.81.62.321.9
Sweden2.62.61.721.91.9
Switzerland1.51.72.21.71.71.7
United Kingdom1.91.81.51.61.5
United States1.52.22.51.91.8
[Positive] Teg: United States

Only positive signal is that the USA tax policy changes (I mean corporate tax increase) that would probable boost the recovery of economy - positive impact. Unemployment rate is low and continues to be at its natural level (4-5%). According to the key economic indicators the outlook for the US economy is healthy. I would suggest the estimation of real GDP to be within 2-3% for 2018-2020. Nonetheless President Trump promised to increase growth to 4 per cent, let's see.

[Neutral] Teg: Canada

Economic growth rate I expect to slow in the next two years as household consumption and government spending slows. Recent developments in consumption has not been transferred to the increase in wages and I think that house prices will continues to slow, no considerable job growth (if any at all). They also did not announced any substantial government investments. Thus, I project the growth of Canadian economy to ease

[Neutral] Teg: Japan

In Japan, growth trend is set to be maintained in 2018, but weaken thereafter as fiscal policy will benefit from planned consumption tax increase. I revised the growth less than 1% for the next years. As I think there is only one possibility to climb at 1% on even more is the expected growth of Global Demand, obviously from Main 3 (USA, China, EU). As per the USA and China - new incentives over softening of tax burdens on corporates - expected to be aggressive using Trump's words. Thus, import is the main driver for the economy of Japan. As It is easy to overestimate the influence of imports, I would tag neutral on the economy of Japan.

[Negative] Teg: United States

Trump administration and al around political situation add more uncertainly of the opportunity of return rate on investment, that would surely restrain new investors to spend. Also, we need to particularly emphasis the movements of the USA government toward trade protectionism (e.g. 25% import duty on series of china products). This brings us more economic risk in the USA due to the answer from China in trade wars game. The next step from the USA I would expect (a) restrains in foreign investments from China into the USA and (b) defense of intellectual property (copyrights) of US companies (we know how Chinese producers have been copying western brands). All these put more pressure on economic outlook. But I would expect the real GDP growth would be limited by c2% for the next two years

[Positive] Teg: Switzerland

I would suggest that in conformity with the manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Manager Index) which is at its highest since July 2010 and the services PMI also stands at very high levels. These leading factors give us positive signals for the economy of Switzerland in 2018-2019. Switzerland increases its export compared to others European countries. Internal consumption is expanding faster nowadays that in 2017 due to the decrease of unemployment rate and rising real wages. Thus, I think that real GDP of Swiss would show minimum 2% of growth in 2018

[Negative] Teg: United Kingdom

I would suggest that all situation over Skripal Case was done by internal forces of Great Britain itself, by the community against Teresa Mai. I believe that they just set her up (to make her as a scapegoat). This is the easiest way and method for internal political struggle. Well, this in coupe with high level of debt against European Union due to Brexit leaves us with no driver for growth in economy of Great Britain. At least, very modest opportunities.

[Negative] Teg: Switzerland

The economy of Switzerland is standing still. I can not find any measurable drivers for upturn more that 1% GDP growth pre annum. Moreover, uncertainty over possible changes in income tax for firms provides some risk. Analysts estimates as 50-50 that the government would increase corporate taxes to cover as more as possible the debt level