I think that the negative merchandise trade balance will remain the current account in deficit over 2018-2022, offsetting surpluses on the services account. More importantly I expect that UK economy will slowing down its growth since 2021 against the backdrop of the looser trade relations with the EU to mean a larger goods trade deficit and a smaller services surplus. Also I don't believe that UK's policymakers will be able to implement structural reforms in the near-term that have crippled the economy in recent years, including weak productivity growth, ineffective innovation and poor infrastructure. So my outlook on British economy is negative.
Over the last year, the US economy has made a profit on combination of stable growth, strengthening leading indicators, modest inflation, as well as gradually rising interest rates. And I think US will continue its growing tendency in 2018-2022. Also the US manufacturing sector is demonstrating the strongest expansion since 2011 and in my view will lead to increasing in manufacturing jobs. In addition I don't expect that US-China trade tensions will make direct negative impact on the US economy, so I bet on further sustained growth of the country?s economy.
The government announced a new annual economic policy package in June, which were added economic reforms and an investment strategy for revitalization of the country. However, I don't expect that this year's plan to stimulate the economy and decrease the fiscal deficit will be achieved, due to pressure from an ageing population. Anyway if implementation of the policy would be successful, I think all growth prospects would be overlapped by increasing tensions in global commerce caused by destructive US trade policy. Therefore it's not clear for me how this year's economic results could recover Japan's economy and achieve the government's measures to stimulate growth and inflation.
I think that exchange rate, commodity prices and strong US economy will keep deficit of the external account of Canada in 2018-2022. Apart from oil, I expect low commodity prices in coming years and this will make negative impact on the current-account. Now we see healthy private consumption, which supported by continued strong household spending against the backdrop of the low interest rates, cheap fuel and an improving labour market. However, monetary policy tightening and increasing prices on the energy resources will slowdown in the private consumption in the near-term. Therefore I forecast slowdown in economic growth of Canada in 2018-2022.
The US economy is one of the most diversified national economies in the world and has been leading the world economy for the last 100 years. The US is having strong growth momentum and I think this trend will continue in 2018-2019. The strong labour market data will keep the Federal Reserve on a steady path of monetary tightening, so I expect an additional rate increase during 2018-2019. Geopolitical concerns in Europe and better-than-expected economic data of the US are driving the price of US dollar, however, the renewed trade war jitters may pause US dollar's rising anytime. In addition, I expect further growth of the US economy given by significant support from the tax reform and the budgetary expenditure
I like Australia's ability to maintain economy growth above 2% pa for nearly 25 years (since 1993) and I expect that Australia has cloudless perspectives to continue this tendency at least in near-term (1-2 years). Major factors that will support this growth are (1) strong domestic demand (wage growth and government expenditure), (2) commodity price growth and export growth (despite export growth is slowing, I expect that demand for minerals and LNG in China will be able to fuel export growth from Australia). Nevertheless, there are some concerns that should be noted: (1) slowing labor market (unemployment rate above average, slowdown in jobs growth), (2) increased household debt (as a result of low interest rates)
I think the government will continue the course of economic revival, which provides bold monetary and flexible fiscal policies, as well as structural reforms. Extension of these policies in 2018-2019 will mean that by 2020 Japan will have completed its longest period of economic recovery since the 1980s. The government will continue to implement structural reforms, however, I think it will be difficult for the country to achieve its ambitious goal of expanding the economy to $6 trn to 2021. In spite of the last weak results of private consumption and investment spending, I expect that Japan's real GDP will show stable growth averaging 1.2% a year in 2018-2022, given by the continued support of flexible fiscal policy and steady growth in external demand. In addition, in 2018-2022 I expect surplus in trade account provided by global goods export growth, restarting of more nuclear power plants, as well as increasing tourist arrivals, especially due to Olympics in 2020.
I think that Switzerland's economy will further benefit from export growth and higher domestic demand. Due to global growth and weak CHF, export growth perspectives are favorable (especially in pharmaceutical industry). That growth supports recovery in industrial activity (PMI is at its highest since 2010), unemployment reduction and growth in real investments from business (as utilized capacity ~80%). However, there is one weak side of Switzerland's economy that I want to mention. Previously, real estate boom was one of the key factors for economy growth. As a result of this boom, one might see that real estate market is imbalanced: declining demand (high household debt, tighter conditions on mortgages), increasing oversupply
In the near term (1-2 year), I expect that Trump administration will be able to accelerate US economy growth: 1) 'Tax Cuts and Jobs Act' (that assumes decrease in corporate tax) and 'Bipartisan Budget Act of 2018' (that assumes to raise the spending limits for both defense and non-defense funding). 2) Protectionist policy: possible NAFTA cancelation, exit from TPP, recently announced import taxes for steel and aluminum, etc. However, one should note that even in near-term there are some issues that could limit the positive effect of proposed measures. First, unemployment rate is at the lows, thus, additional spending could lead to higher inflation (not real activity). Second, interest rates are likely to be risen that lower demand. Third, effect for real investment growth due to proposed tax cut could be overestimated (capital costs have been very low for a long time, but investment growth was modest). Nevertheless, I think that major concern is US economy's long-term perspective. Proposed measures will increase fragility of US economy due to increased risks and, as a result, I assume that negative scenario is quite possible: 1) higher interest rates: decreasing of demand on US Treasuries (as other assets will become more attractive) coupled with supply increasing (to finance proposed program), 2) significant decreasing in government stimulus after 2020 due to need to maintain increased debt with higher interest rate, 3) higher inflation, 4) overall cost increasing in economy as a result of protectionism
I expect that Canada will be able to continue its stable growth: IMF's forecast for GDP growth in 2018 is ~2.1%, unemployment rate is at the lowest level since 70s (5.8%). However, despite all these obvious signs of recovery, one should note some concerns: 1) NAFTA renegotiation. USA is very important market for Canada (2/3 of export) and, thus, NAFTA is very important agreement for Canada (that makes Canadian products competitive on US market). However, now the future of NAFTA is questionable. Moreover, taking into account Trump's protectionist policy, I consider the case for USA to withdraw from a treaty as rather probable. 2) Household debt. According to OECD, households in Canada have the highest debt-to-income ratio (> 100%) in the developed world. Coupled with the lowest unemployment rate, I consider these as a fundamental internal constraints for Canada's long-term growth. 3) US tax reform. On the one hand, this reform is likely to support US GDP growth and, consequently, Canada's GDP growth (as Canadian economy is heavily reliant on US economy). However, on the other hand, lower corporate tax was one of the Canada's competitive advantages (comparing with USA), and, consequently, this reform is likely to decrease foreign direct investments. 4) Higher US Fed interest rate. It is likely that US Fed will increase interest rate. And the net result for Canada is rather questionable. On the one hand, that will likely lead to Canadian dollar weakening and, thus, Canadian export support. On the other hand, US dollar strengthening will lead to world economy slowing down.
After Brexit referendum in 2016 UK economy growth rate is constantly decreasing (2015 = 2.3%, 2016 = 1.9%, 2017 = 1.8%). And I assume that full negative effect from both Brexit and entrenched UK economy problems will be felt by UK only in 2019 (planned exit from the EU is March 2019). 1) Productivity problem. During last decade UK's productivity growth is constantly slowing down. As a result, Office for Budget Responsibility's long-term productivity forecast was halved down to 1.2%. 2) Higher inflation due to weaker sterling and, thus, weaker consumer spending power due to Brexit. I assume that weaker consumer spending power is the major cause of slower UK economy growth. One should note that this negative effect is partially offset by industrial production and export growth on the back of weak sterling and global growth. However, I believe that this positive offset will be quite limited as real investments will decline due to political uncertainty. Additional consequence of this factor is accelerating (double-digit) growth in unsecured lending (however, current level of consumer debt to GDP is still below pre-crisis level). 3) UK/EU deal uncertainty. UK wants to maintain a special trading relationship with the EU after leaving EU, but EU, obviously, does not want to give UK such benefits. I assume that negative outcome for UK is quite probable. As a result, additional slowing of UK economy in 2019 is highly likely
I expect that Japan economy will continue to grow with growth rate approximately equals to average growth rate in 2012-2017 (Abenomics beginning). The key driver for this is export growth (machinery, chemicals, and non-ferrous metals) due to weak yen and global economy growth. Monetary situation remains healthy as well: despite recent acceleration in inflation, its forecast is still below BoJ target. However, one should note several challenges for Japan economy: 1) Near-term challenges: (1) recent strengthening of yen that increases Japanese exporters concern, (2) weakness in consumer spending due to wages decreasing, as well as new housing construction falling. 2) Fundamental long-term challenge: planned increasing of national sales tax in 2019 from 8% to 10% to cover deficit in pension system (due to Japanese demographic situation). I assume that this will lead to economic growth slowing down (as in 2014 when this tax was increased from 5% to 8%)
Interest rates in the country are -0.75%, holding cash in bank cost people money. They need to reconsider monetary and fiscal policy to boost growth. Negative rates are widely criticized, I also would argue on the efficiency of such a policy
As the US economy is totally integrated into a global economy, Trumps efforts to bound imports of goods from China and Mexico would effect that in short-run the domestic US consumption should be reduced since the upward pressure of appreciated goods (we clearly understand how much of import good Americans consume. Thus, my estimation of real GDP to remain at a 1.8% in 2018 and 2% in 2019
Growth will likely remain in 2018 as it was back to 2017. With interest rates in the country at -0.5%, holding cash in bank cost people some money, curiously but true. They need to reconsider monetary and fiscal policy to boost growth. Negative rates are widely criticized but Sweden seems not to turn against negative rates, as they just do not want to cap output and lessen real wages. I would argue on the efficiency of such a policy (this only gives the opportunity to earn by the government with tax and lessened obligations to pay on any debt - Sweden officials are collecting too much tax)
Australian representatives two or three years in a row talks about rebalancing to non-mining sector through government investments into it. They plans tax relief for business (a gradual reduction) by 5 p.p. They do it on the pace of the Trumps attempt for aggressive tax rate cuts for businesses. This is rather good news for industry. thanks'. This will generate jobs and helps to raise sluggish economic development into somewhat measurable.
Private consumption slows due to increase of inflation which limits real spending's of households, all investments are depressed by Brexit. Gloomy projections of real GDP growth.
European import is the main driver for the economy of Canada. As per official sources of EU officers they are not expect any increase of imports of goods. In contrary China and US market's tend to increase import from Canadian business. Thus, I put moderate increase in GDP for the next 2 years
I scrutinizes over economist's outlook for the Australian economy in 2018, they are cautiously optimistic, driven largely by improving global conditions but I doubt that such a global conditions will improve. Indeed, do not see the solid reasons for it. Thus, I would put a negative tax on GDP. Also, not to forget the adverse statistic for household consumption in Australia which adds more uncertainty on it. I may refresh your memory - Australia has one of the highest debt-to-GDP ratios for houseless in the world. A little and sudden interest increase will lead to problems on debt servicing for households followed by well-known problems for economic growth
All I know good news for export sector that is they are investing in new LNG (liquefied natural gas) capacity to carry it to China.