Emerging, Real GDP YOY%
Emerging, Real GDP YOY%
Costa Rica2.91.3
Czech Republic5.12.72.5
El Salvador2.3
Saudi Arabia-
South Africa1.61.11.8
South Korea3.12.72.8
Sri Lanka3.23.2
United Arab Emirates0.81.73.1
[Positive] Teg: China

I believe that China is able to achieve its goal, announced in April 2018 by the Communist Party of China, to double real GDP by 2020 compared with the level in 2010, that would require real GDP growth to average at least 6.3% a year in 2018-2020. Money squeeze in 2017 will make negative impact on economic activity, however, I think this is likely to be offset by looser economic policy settings. Therefore consumption and investment growth will remain stable in 2018. The external sector is sensible to US-China trade tensions, but I don't expect an escalation into full-blown trade war that could have a major impact on GDP growth in China. And in spite this trade frictions I expect that China's large merchandise trade surplus will expand over 2018-2022. Also, according to my expectations, the consumer prices will grow by an average of 2.6% per year in 2018-2022

[Positive] Teg: China

At the moment most annalists emphasize that this year China are faced with threats and so called big worries: (a) US tax reform which result in capital flow from China into the US, (b) tightening of financial and environmental regulations, (c) slowdown of housing and infrastructure construction in 2018-2019

[Positive] Teg: South Korea

In the near-term, I assume that Korean economy will be able to show relatively high growth rate (~3% in 2018-19) as a result of export growth (especially, in semiconductor industry) and fiscal stimulus (through government expenses increasing). In the long term, economic outlook is hazy as it relies on the possibility to solve fundamental economic problems (high level of unemployment, population ageing, high power of large enterprises called chaebol and low level of competitiveness), as well as on external political factors (negative - USA might withdraw from free-trade agreement, positive - possible recovery of relationship with North Korea).

[Neutral] Teg: Ukraine

Politicians in Ukraine are every day announcing the fight against the corruption. Sorry, but this is bullshit, and nobody may believe in this. Poroshenko by himself did nothing with his own bribable pocket (I mean that before hi became the President he promised to get rid of business, but until now his wealth as businessman has indeed increase (I check Bloomberg filings and forbs statistics). For growth the key factors is to erase the corruption, but Ukraine will fail to do it , there will be no any attracting of foreign investments...I do not take into account the announced privatization in favor of foreign friends (supporters against Russia) at knockdown (cheap) price. That would further squeeze Ukraine economy....unfortunately

[Positive] Teg: Turkey

Turkey offers a good growth potential in terms of GDP for the next two years 2018-2019 with the real rate 5% as a minimum. This is driven by governmental fiscal stimulus and the increase of export. And I read many analysts bet on strong growth dynamics of Turkish economy. Main factors are oil price growth (export), internal consumption strengthening and attraction of new foreign investments, these drivers seem to continue feeding up the economy growth, although the increase might slow down to more moderate levels in mid-term. The growth in internal consumption is also base on the clear reduction dynamic of unemployment rate. Also, many tourists are coming back (e.g. from Russia) which makes businesses to be more optimistic for near future

[Positive] Teg: Russia

Russia's economy is highly depends on oil prices and I expect that the global oil prices will continue its bullish trend. Following OPEC's meeting in June, Russia is expected to increase oil production. Against the backdrop of the rising oil prices, Russia's trade surplus should significantly increase in 2018. Also I expect that the current account to remain in surplus in 2018-2022, driven by strong trade surpluses. Sanctions against Russia made negative effect on the foreign direct investment inflows, however I expect that these inflows will recover in 2019-2022. I believe in Russia's economy and bet on its stable growth in the mid-term.

Laura S. Dixon I would argue that Russian economy is highly dependent on oil and gas. It  is about 35% in my judgement. Military development is the main driver for Russia, especialy their business in Syria in order to manage oil prices  
[Positive] Teg: Russia

Russian economy is coming out of recession stronger and more stable than before despite western financial sanctions. Russian banks and companies considerable reduced their dependence on foreign debt. Personally, I am focused and domiciled in the USA and now I am becoming more interesting in the opportunity that offers Russian economy. As shown by many macro indicators, Russian economy has easily survived and is clearly not torn to ribbons while some high-ranking western officials cried from every corner. In my opinion, for the last 2 years many investors were forced to turn their backs from Russia that of course caused investing deficit, but now I suppose it is right time to come back, And I am highly likely to expect better growth in 2019 as the latest

[Negative] Teg: Turkey

After rapid increase in real GDP at the end of 2017 (+3.3% in 2016 vs +7.3% in 2017), supported by government stimulus measures and credit guarantees, as well as political pressure on banks to provide a loans and improved export competitiveness, I expect that in 2018 the Turkey's economic growth will slow down to 4%. This slowdown will reflect the impact of tax boost, higher interest rates, tightening of global liquidity against the backdrop of weaker Turkish Lira, increased inherent instability and higher inflation. As a result all planned government measures to increase employment and investment, will be fully blocked by these negative factors. In addition, foreign capital inflows will be offset by political instability in line with the transition to a presidential system of government, domestic financial vulnerability and lower interest rate in comparison with the developed economies.

[Negative] Teg: Morocco

In 2018 officials of Morocco suggest that economic growth will slow down to 2.8% this year 2018, down from 4% in 2017 due to a decline in agricultural production caused by bad weather condition (scarcity of rainfall). I would put more moderate growth forecast on officials levels due to the increase of unemployment in 2017 which is likely to remain the same or increase a little - I do not see any job creating initiatives relative a year before. This would narrow official forecast of growth and would hold Morocco's economy back.

[Negative] Teg: Russia

The confrontation between Russia and the West intensified statist, nationalist and protectionist trends within the government. At this case the main priority for the Russian government will be economic sovereignty, which would be expressed by insulating the economy from external shocks. The main tools of this strategy include a large positive sovereign external asset position, protectionist measures to support domestic manufacturing through import substitution and a cautious approach to foreign investment. In my view the implementation of this strategy as part of transformation period will be associated with a slowdown in the Russian economy growth rate in the medium term. Also the weakness of most political and legal institutions, as well opaque governance system, will put additional pressure on the country in this transitory period.

[Positive] Teg: Cyprus

I witnessed that due to offshore tax reform in Russia (of controlled foreign companies) a lot of Russian companies had to moved and are moving into Cyprus. The building construction (for offices and residential properties) is underway with its considerable paces.

[Positive] Teg: China

I expect that China's economy growth will be more moderate in coming years (6 - 6.5%), however, that will mainly caused by Government's plan of 'high-quality development': reducing of imbalances in economy, reducing pollution, stabilization of financing sector. As a result, it is expected (1) further decline in investment due to capacity cuts and stricter pollution controls, (2) tighter credit conditions that will lead to demand decreasing. In the same time, government is likely to support the growth by fiscal stimulus (through SOE and infrastructure projects). I assume that long-term results could be mostly positive for China economy (despite lower growth in near-term). However, there are some challenges for Government in near and long-term perspective: 1) Possible trade war with USA (that could cost for China 1-2% of GDP growth). 2) Demographic: rapidly aging population, declining labor force (one of the key issue announced by The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, a leading government think tank). 3) Unemployment growth, particularly, due to planned reducing of imbalances in economy and capacity cuts. Coupled with rising living cost, this problem might create a social instability in China. 4) Local governments debts. Despite China conducts tighter monetary policy to stabilize its financing sector, the real situation with local governments debts is opaque (due to local government financing vehicles, public-private partnerships and possible faking reporting data)

[Negative] Teg: Argentina

Some businesses would be upset if they (as it was announced by the Government) cut economic subsidies mainly for energy and transport. I do not think that for these funds they (the government) may find more efficient application in others sectors if the money really be transferred to any of demanding sectors at all. I bet that the funds will go to government itself (for their internal needs) as it was in Argentina history from time to time.

[Positive] Teg: Venezuela

Frankly speaking if I were the president of Venezuela - Mr. Maduro - I think that the only right step to do in order to take control over the long run recession is to restrain all so-called democracy to take the control over everything with a help of police and military. Then, to ask, to plead Mr. Putin to establish military facility here in Venezuela in order to protect physically itself from US wrath. And ultimately to write off all its debt... This will, clearly, help with oil prices and will limit US influence over Venezuela's power of democracy. The only one favorable exit (from recession and crisis) is to use BRICs conjointly with Russia and China (at least with Russia). Just rhetorical question: why Anglo-Saxon countries are in relative prosperous position? the answer is that they always act jointly (via NATO for example). NATO has come to Russian boundaries right at hand. Thus, Venezuela should persuade Mr. Putin to come closer to US boundaries. You will say this is like a cold war.. Of course, cold war has never been stopped. Venezuela is the country that must to be prosperous but to do so we need to act jointly, otherwise we all lose one-by-one.

[Positive] Teg: United Arab Emirates

A recovery in oil prices together with diversification (to non-ore sectors) course announced by state officials will help the UAE economy to increase in 2018 at the rate of 3-4% in real GDP. Also recent growth in VAT will increase tax revenue which ultimately boost government spending (this will add around 1% in real GDP. As maybe easily seen from statistic page, tourism is also developing in good shape for 2018-2019 (tourism sector is one of the major item in state agenda for diversification)

[Neutral] Teg: Russia

I just want to express one interesting point on the corruption in military sector in Russia. You all remember that Russia's Military Defense Minister Mr. Anatoly Serdyukov had been accused for wasteful spending of multi-billions of rubles which were dedicated to military upgrade and development. And what did Mr. Putin..., he just fired him but simultaneously they announced that this was an unprecedented corruption in Military Sector. Secondly, during this particular time Russians had not been doing any independent movement in global geopolitical scene. But right after that Mr. Putin demonstrated all his strength, military strength. I am assured that this was a strategic rational for this: they just showed to the world that Military Sector was under the control of such a man like Mr. Serdyukov in order to lull the world into a false sense of security that there were all thefts from senior to juniors in military sector of Russia and thus no development was possible....One day I had a meeting with senior military officer and he told me that Mr. Serdyukov never was in touch with any military officer.. This means that the Minister Mr. Serdyukov was just a folding screen behind which the really development of military force was underway. Maybe this is untrue but logically reasonable. I do not want to say that Russia does not have a corruption, It has indeed but I think that that strategic sectors are under close control.

[Negative] Teg: China

I expect the slowdown in China's economic growth in the near-term, driven by reduction in domestic demand, which would be the main constraint on achieving ambitious plan of the government for economic expansion. Also I think that slowdown in industrial production will continue its negative trend and will lead to volatility in domestic financial markets, based on concerns about risks related to the trade outlook. Probably, US-China trade tensions will fresh strain and will make a negative direct impact on the Chinese economy. That's why I have bearish view on China's economy in the mid-term.

[Neutral] Teg: Netherlands

I would be moderate in forecasting the economy of Netherlands. The main drawback for me is that housing market slows in the begining of this year 2018 and thus the slowdawn of residential investments should be expected In overall I do not consider any other sound growth driver in Netherlands. Maybe wrong.

[Positive] Teg: Brazil

I expect that Brazil's economy will continue to recover from downfall in 2015-2016, as well as weak growth in 2017, and will show annual average real GDP growth at 2.6% in 2018-2022. Lower inflation and interest rates are supporting the growth of private consumption, given by stimulating retail sales and improving household and company balance sheets. However, the credit growth is weak, due to the banks haven't adapted to the sharp decline in the policy rate. In my view, by implementing fiscal reforms and pursuing a sensible policy, the next government could increase the investment, after falling by 25% in 2015-2016, and provide stable economic growth in 2018-2022. Therefore I have positive outlook for Brazil's economy.

[Positive] Teg: India

In most analysts report the outlook for India is largely positive notwithstanding the fact of its slowdown in 2017. Such a growth 7.3%-7.5% for the next two years 2018-2019 adds economy of India as a fastest growing emerging market in Asia and in the world. I would quote factors from UN report: positive forecast is supported by robust private consumption and public investment as well as ongoing structural reforms. Indian government plans to improve Goods and Service Tax as well as Bankruptcy Code which will lead to more efficient trend of growth in Long-run. Once the government of India continues to carry out structural reforms, prudent macro policies and redistribute towards infrastructural project - we may really bet a lot into India's outlook - merely 8% per year in GDP terms.