Emerging, Real GDP YOY%
Emerging, Real GDP YOY%
Costa Rica2.91.3
Czech Republic5.12.72.5
El Salvador2.3
Saudi Arabia-
South Africa1.61.11.8
South Korea3.12.72.8
Sri Lanka3.23.2
United Arab Emirates0.81.73.1
[Negative] Teg: Cyprus

Nicos Anastasiades has just been re-elected for another 5 year-term. His main priority to find gas offshore at all cost. They have been drilling wells to find gas deposits for almost 3 years back. As I see the only we have is that ENI published something like very encouraging perspective. It would be great if they published real figures and cost associated with extraction in order to estimate the feasibility of this grand potential. Moreover Turkish side of Cyprus is continuously objecting any gas search works. In my humble opinion this is all-time on-going searching business and a mask to earn political capital for government team and no more.

[Positive] Teg: Russia

I heard that notwithstanding the sanctions a lot of German businessmen are keen to invest and 2-3 times more right after the presidential election. I personally met about 10 good wealth persons. In my estimates this would give 2-3pp. more in GDP. I bet that Russia is one of the top country to invest in amidst emerging markets.

[Positive] Teg: United Arab Emirates

A recovery in oil prices together with diversification (to non-ore sectors) course announced by state officials will help the UAE economy to increase in 2018 at the rate of 3-4% in real GDP. Also recent growth in VAT will increase tax revenue which ultimately boost government spending (this will add around 1% in real GDP. As maybe easily seen from statistic page, tourism is also developing in good shape for 2018-2019 (tourism sector is one of the major item in state agenda for diversification)

[Positive] Teg: South Korea

In the near-term, I assume that Korean economy will be able to show relatively high growth rate (~3% in 2018-19) as a result of export growth (especially, in semiconductor industry) and fiscal stimulus (through government expenses increasing). In the long term, economic outlook is hazy as it relies on the possibility to solve fundamental economic problems (high level of unemployment, population ageing, high power of large enterprises called chaebol and low level of competitiveness), as well as on external political factors (negative - USA might withdraw from free-trade agreement, positive - possible recovery of relationship with North Korea).

[Negative] Teg: South Africa

In spite of installation of Cyril Ramaphosa as the new president and following increasing confidence from the international community and investors, I don't have positive outlook for the South African economy. Tighter fiscal policy and a rise of taxes to keep debt under control and prevent additional credit downgrades, will impede efforts to boost growth. Also structural constraints such as skills shortages and inefficient state-owned companies will continue to weaken economic activity, as well as negative external balance will affect the economic growth in the mid-term.

[Positive] Teg: Mexico

In spite of Mexico-US tensions, I expect further growth of the country's economy, which will be provided by increasing industrial production. The Mexican peso's depreciation will push the external demand for Mexican products, which in turn will make a positive impact on local manufacturing production and exports. Also mining production will continue to support total industrial production growth, as well as construction activity will continue to expand. In sum, my positive outlook on Mexico's economy reflects sustainable growth in the mid-term.

[Positive] Teg: China

At the moment most annalists emphasize that this year China are faced with threats and so called big worries: (a) US tax reform which result in capital flow from China into the US, (b) tightening of financial and environmental regulations, (c) slowdown of housing and infrastructure construction in 2018-2019

[Positive] Teg: Netherlands

Main drivers for the economy of Netherlands are private consumption and domestic investments. It is expected wage increase and unemployment rate decrease, this would support higher consumption for 2018-2019. As per the corporate level it is expected that businesses would invest more in PP&E due to its obsolescence and as it was announced by many public companies to increase the utilization of capacity rates as a result we would expect higher production output and thus, higher growth.

[Positive] Teg: Saudi Arabia

The economy is expected to benefit this 2018 year from higher oil prices reflecting the success of cuts by OPEC and allies and strong as expected global growth compared to 2017. This additional revenue will help to boost internal consumption which constitute around the half of SA GDP. I would suggest a gradual growth in GDP from 2.2% in 2018 up to 2.5% in 2021. Also, the government announced privatization of Saudi Aramco and some others assets, this should attract more foreign investors to Saudi Arabia. If it happens it would be the greatest oil stock IPO with the total value of more than 1.5 trillions of dolor (I am measuring by Price-to-Reserves multiple). How many shares the Government would offer we do not know but it is rationale around 5%-10% in IPO, which would result in 75-150 billion of dollars. This is a good sign for investors and opportunities that Saudi Arabia offers if they would not postpone privatization as it was...

[Positive] Teg: Venezuela

Frankly speaking if I were the president of Venezuela - Mr. Maduro - I think that the only right step to do in order to take control over the long run recession is to restrain all so-called democracy to take the control over everything with a help of police and military. Then, to ask, to plead Mr. Putin to establish military facility here in Venezuela in order to protect physically itself from US wrath. And ultimately to write off all its debt... This will, clearly, help with oil prices and will limit US influence over Venezuela's power of democracy. The only one favorable exit (from recession and crisis) is to use BRICs conjointly with Russia and China (at least with Russia). Just rhetorical question: why Anglo-Saxon countries are in relative prosperous position? the answer is that they always act jointly (via NATO for example). NATO has come to Russian boundaries right at hand. Thus, Venezuela should persuade Mr. Putin to come closer to US boundaries. You will say this is like a cold war.. Of course, cold war has never been stopped. Venezuela is the country that must to be prosperous but to do so we need to act jointly, otherwise we all lose one-by-one.

[Positive] Teg: China

I believe that China is able to achieve its goal, announced in April 2018 by the Communist Party of China, to double real GDP by 2020 compared with the level in 2010, that would require real GDP growth to average at least 6.3% a year in 2018-2020. Money squeeze in 2017 will make negative impact on economic activity, however, I think this is likely to be offset by looser economic policy settings. Therefore consumption and investment growth will remain stable in 2018. The external sector is sensible to US-China trade tensions, but I don't expect an escalation into full-blown trade war that could have a major impact on GDP growth in China. And in spite this trade frictions I expect that China's large merchandise trade surplus will expand over 2018-2022. Also, according to my expectations, the consumer prices will grow by an average of 2.6% per year in 2018-2022

[Negative] Teg: Mexico

Relations with the US, Mexico's dominant trade and investment partner, will continue to be foreign-policy priority for the country. I think that tension will persist, due to Donald Trump's determination to build a border wall and tighten restrictions on immigration, as well as his rigid position on trade. In addition, I see continuous risk in NAFTA negotiations, which are accompanied by disagreements. In my view uncertainty over NAFTA and Mexico's presidential elections will weaken business and consumer confidence in short-term, resulting in slowdown of capital inflows. Also I don't expect that education and other reforms implemented over the last years will reach their potential, due to weakness of government institutions. Weak public investment, significant dependence on import and high level of poverty (almost 50% of the population) will also impede economic growth. Therefore I have negative outlook for the economic development of Mexico.

[Negative] Teg: Argentina

Some businesses would be upset if they (as it was announced by the Government) cut economic subsidies mainly for energy and transport. I do not think that for these funds they (the government) may find more efficient application in others sectors if the money really be transferred to any of demanding sectors at all. I bet that the funds will go to government itself (for their internal needs) as it was in Argentina history from time to time.

[Negative] Teg: India

India's outlook is more positive as many investors and agencies think, but such a positive factors are something like promises of the government's projection. I am very skeptical on this. Around 40% of industrial facilities face with low capacity utilization rate, infrastructure is poor in comparison to China, many banks have on its balance a lot of non-performing assets wherethrough invested a lot into non-perspective sectors. Well, high-loaded investments in infrastructure is very critical for economy growth in India. But nowadays there is no any measurable action on it. Thus, I would suggest rather faded prospects for 2018-2019, but brighter right after 2019

[Negative] Teg: Ukraine

The economy of Ukraine is predominated by politicians. In economic theory we do not possess any method to estimated growth or downfall. What we may judge on the available facts, surely, that gas pipeline system of Ukraine will suffer from other competitive routes bypassing Ukraine (Nord Stream 2 and Sooth Stream to Turkey). I witnessed that real offshore works in Baltic and Black seas are underway. Taking into account the balance of gas supply from Russia, and the planned capacity of new Streams, I would suggest that Ukraine would lost at least 80% of current capacity

[Positive] Teg: China

I expect that China's economy growth will be more moderate in coming years (6 - 6.5%), however, that will mainly caused by Government's plan of 'high-quality development': reducing of imbalances in economy, reducing pollution, stabilization of financing sector. As a result, it is expected (1) further decline in investment due to capacity cuts and stricter pollution controls, (2) tighter credit conditions that will lead to demand decreasing. In the same time, government is likely to support the growth by fiscal stimulus (through SOE and infrastructure projects). I assume that long-term results could be mostly positive for China economy (despite lower growth in near-term). However, there are some challenges for Government in near and long-term perspective: 1) Possible trade war with USA (that could cost for China 1-2% of GDP growth). 2) Demographic: rapidly aging population, declining labor force (one of the key issue announced by The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, a leading government think tank). 3) Unemployment growth, particularly, due to planned reducing of imbalances in economy and capacity cuts. Coupled with rising living cost, this problem might create a social instability in China. 4) Local governments debts. Despite China conducts tighter monetary policy to stabilize its financing sector, the real situation with local governments debts is opaque (due to local government financing vehicles, public-private partnerships and possible faking reporting data)

[Positive] Teg: Cyprus

I witnessed that due to offshore tax reform in Russia (of controlled foreign companies) a lot of Russian companies had to moved and are moving into Cyprus. The building construction (for offices and residential properties) is underway with its considerable paces.

[Positive] Teg: Russia

Russian Government set 2% target growth for 2018 year, I would suggest two main factors which are the base of such growth forecast. Firstly, the growth of internal consumption due to inflation dropped (to 2-3 percent, a level never imaginable for Russia) which ultimately strengthen real wages and thus spending.. Secondly, oil prices, as we see there is a gradual and steady increase in global oil pricing high exceed 3 years history - above $70 per barrel, this brightens Russia's outlook. I would bet minimum 4% of GDP growth for the next 3 years

[Positive] Teg: Turkey

As emerging economy Turkey offers the best investment case in terms of growth and downside risk in oil-linked shares. Due to positive dynamic in world oil prices as I estimate to be limited to 70 USD per barrel for 2018 year

[Negative] Teg: Brazil

Despite recent stabilization in Brazilian economy after recession in 2015-2016, I assume that this recovery will be short-lived. The thing is, budget deficit remains high and its reduction might lead to both growth lowering (due to reduction of government spending) and social instability (due to unpopular measures such as raise the retirement age). As a result, political crisis is quite possible and, if so, that will lead to second wave of recession