Emerging, Real GDP YOY%
201720182021E
Emerging, Real GDP YOY%3.93.53.6
Argentina3.9-6.43.2
Bahrain2.95.4
Brazil1.41.12.2
Bulgaria43.42.8
Chile1.74.13.1
China6.86.46
Colombia1.82.73.7
Costa Rica2.91.3
Croatia3.42.32.3
Cyprus5.742.5
Czech Republic5.12.72.5
Ecuador2.90.81.8
Egypt4.85.46
El Salvador2.3
Estonia3.95.13
Georgia44.55.2
Ghana8.76.85.1
Guatemala2.73.5
Honduras4.83.8
Hungary4.452.4
India6.36.67.5
Indonesia5.15.25.6
Jamaica12
Jordan1461.83
Kazakhstan4.34.13.1
Kenya4.75.96.5
Kuwait-2.91.24
Latvia5.85.33.2
Lithuania3.93.82.7
Luxembourg0.61.23.2
Malaysia6.24.74.7
Mexico1.51.72.9
Mongolia5.37.2
Morocco3.52.94.5
Netherlands32.12
Nigeria1.22.42
Oman-0.32.1
Pakistan5.83.35
Panama4.94
Paraguay5.213.9
Peru2.94.83.9
Philippines6.76.27
Poland5.44.92.8
Qatar30.52.7
Romania8.443.1
Russia1.52.31.5
Saudi Arabia-1.43.62.1
Slovakia3.33.73.7
Slovenia4.23.82.5
South Africa1.61.11.8
South Korea3.12.72.8
Sri Lanka3.23.2
Tanzania6.8-2.3
Thailand3.94.13.6
Tunisia22.1
Ukraine2.43.53.7
United Arab Emirates0.81.73.1
Uruguay1.90.62.9
Venezuela-20-1.5
Vietnam7.57.36.5
N/A
[Negative] Teg: Ukraine

The economy of Ukraine is predominated by politicians. In economic theory we do not possess any method to estimated growth or downfall. What we may judge on the available facts, surely, that gas pipeline system of Ukraine will suffer from other competitive routes bypassing Ukraine (Nord Stream 2 and Sooth Stream to Turkey). I witnessed that real offshore works in Baltic and Black seas are underway. Taking into account the balance of gas supply from Russia, and the planned capacity of new Streams, I would suggest that Ukraine would lost at least 80% of current capacity

[Negative] Teg: China

There are rumors that in light of china's currency depreciation, the central bank is likely to tighten liquidity. Obviously, it will raise further concerns in relation to the growth outlook of China. I explain: the US tax reform is underway, and once to be carried out this will cause interest rate increase in the US market, the will result in capital flow from China into the US and will ultimately weaken the yuan. Thus I think that GDP growth will slow.

[Positive] Teg: Turkey

Turkey offers a good growth potential in terms of GDP for the next two years 2018-2019 with the real rate 5% as a minimum. This is driven by governmental fiscal stimulus and the increase of export. And I read many analysts bet on strong growth dynamics of Turkish economy. Main factors are oil price growth (export), internal consumption strengthening and attraction of new foreign investments, these drivers seem to continue feeding up the economy growth, although the increase might slow down to more moderate levels in mid-term. The growth in internal consumption is also base on the clear reduction dynamic of unemployment rate. Also, many tourists are coming back (e.g. from Russia) which makes businesses to be more optimistic for near future

[Positive] Teg: Argentina

Most sources say that the economy of Argentine is expected to accelerate in 2018 and 2019 on the grounds of the increase of consumption and investments in fixed assets. I remember that they want to raise infrastructure's investments by 20% this year. It is very nice and promising for businesses which engaged in mineral resource extraction, agricultural and chemical sector, well would be done and for the others in total. In such scenario GDP would expand minimum by 3% this year and by 4% in 2019. It is also worth to note (on my opinion this is important) that the government announce to cut the spending's on state apparatus. Nonetheless, this in total is ideal picture. To be skeptical for GDP, I guess adequate rates for 2018 and 2019 are 2% and 2.5%

[Negative] Teg: Morocco

In 2018 officials of Morocco suggest that economic growth will slow down to 2.8% this year 2018, down from 4% in 2017 due to a decline in agricultural production caused by bad weather condition (scarcity of rainfall). I would put more moderate growth forecast on officials levels due to the increase of unemployment in 2017 which is likely to remain the same or increase a little - I do not see any job creating initiatives relative a year before. This would narrow official forecast of growth and would hold Morocco's economy back.

[Negative] Teg: Russia

It is arguable but many experts are inclined to think that small and middle-scaled firms constitute the core of the economy of any country. If so, Russia is facing problems in its development, no economic dynamism, there is no environment in which we can expect innovation or entrepreneurship for such small and middle scaled business. But other experts thinks that backing on the experience of modern China and by-gone USSR they showed that the core of economy is government-linked large scale business. I think that both points of views are worth to take, but the level of corruption of Russia is very high and this is the major drawback, impediment of any possible development in Russia, excluding the military sector that is of direct control of Mr. Putin. But military sector may not balance the economy towards to a steady path of development.

[Negative] Teg: Cyprus

Nicos Anastasiades has just been re-elected for another 5 year-term. His main priority to find gas offshore at all cost. They have been drilling wells to find gas deposits for almost 3 years back. As I see the only we have is that ENI published something like very encouraging perspective. It would be great if they published real figures and cost associated with extraction in order to estimate the feasibility of this grand potential. Moreover Turkish side of Cyprus is continuously objecting any gas search works. In my humble opinion this is all-time on-going searching business and a mask to earn political capital for government team and no more.

[Negative] Teg: Venezuela

One hope that current oil price increase would somehow give some strength to Venezuela economy. It has great oil reserves but how it is now the poorest country. They need very strong government to take the control over all sectors, including mass media and to restrain all of it , I mean any public violent demonstration. But before doing so, for the health of all officials of Venezuela it is worth to solicit support from Russia and China (within BRICs). This only may help. Well, just economic reforms will not help at all. Please, not be naive. Only strong, military government may help, may change the situation for the better

[Positive] Teg: Venezuela

Frankly speaking if I were the president of Venezuela - Mr. Maduro - I think that the only right step to do in order to take control over the long run recession is to restrain all so-called democracy to take the control over everything with a help of police and military. Then, to ask, to plead Mr. Putin to establish military facility here in Venezuela in order to protect physically itself from US wrath. And ultimately to write off all its debt... This will, clearly, help with oil prices and will limit US influence over Venezuela's power of democracy. The only one favorable exit (from recession and crisis) is to use BRICs conjointly with Russia and China (at least with Russia). Just rhetorical question: why Anglo-Saxon countries are in relative prosperous position? the answer is that they always act jointly (via NATO for example). NATO has come to Russian boundaries right at hand. Thus, Venezuela should persuade Mr. Putin to come closer to US boundaries. You will say this is like a cold war.. Of course, cold war has never been stopped. Venezuela is the country that must to be prosperous but to do so we need to act jointly, otherwise we all lose one-by-one.

[Neutral] Teg: Brazil

Brazil is going through real serious budget problems: aging of population with the trimming of social security spending. This is the main drawback for growth potentials of the country . Most people thinks the future election may help. I am skeptical to this. I would suggest to increase pension age and to invest heavily on to the sectors to replace imports.

[Positive] Teg: United Arab Emirates

Most analysts estimates GDP growth in 2018 to be 2-3 pp more than in 2017 thanks to solid upward in oil prices and service sector development in the economy of UAE

[Positive] Teg: Netherlands

Main drivers for the economy of Netherlands are private consumption and domestic investments. It is expected wage increase and unemployment rate decrease, this would support higher consumption for 2018-2019. As per the corporate level it is expected that businesses would invest more in PP&E due to its obsolescence and as it was announced by many public companies to increase the utilization of capacity rates as a result we would expect higher production output and thus, higher growth.

[Positive] Teg: China

At the moment most annalists emphasize that this year China are faced with threats and so called big worries: (a) US tax reform which result in capital flow from China into the US, (b) tightening of financial and environmental regulations, (c) slowdown of housing and infrastructure construction in 2018-2019

[Neutral] Teg: Ukraine

Politicians in Ukraine are every day announcing the fight against the corruption. Sorry, but this is bullshit, and nobody may believe in this. Poroshenko by himself did nothing with his own bribable pocket (I mean that before hi became the President he promised to get rid of business, but until now his wealth as businessman has indeed increase (I check Bloomberg filings and forbs statistics). For growth the key factors is to erase the corruption, but Ukraine will fail to do it , there will be no any attracting of foreign investments...I do not take into account the announced privatization in favor of foreign friends (supporters against Russia) at knockdown (cheap) price. That would further squeeze Ukraine economy....unfortunately

[Negative] Teg: Argentina

Some businesses would be upset if they (as it was announced by the Government) cut economic subsidies mainly for energy and transport. I do not think that for these funds they (the government) may find more efficient application in others sectors if the money really be transferred to any of demanding sectors at all. I bet that the funds will go to government itself (for their internal needs) as it was in Argentina history from time to time.

[Positive] Teg: Turkey

As emerging economy Turkey offers the best investment case in terms of growth and downside risk in oil-linked shares. Due to positive dynamic in world oil prices as I estimate to be limited to 70 USD per barrel for 2018 year

[Positive] Teg: Cyprus

I witnessed that due to offshore tax reform in Russia (of controlled foreign companies) a lot of Russian companies had to moved and are moving into Cyprus. The building construction (for offices and residential properties) is underway with its considerable paces.

[Negative] Teg: Brazil

The Brazilian government one month ago announced that GDP this year (2018 will grow faster and they wait recovery from the recession for the past 10 years. This is for optimists. I do not see real activity (as you know some big steps) to resolve structural problems in economy. Look, all they wants to do is to narrow a budget deficit by curtailing the social security system. This will not help. Obviously imho.

[Positive] Teg: Saudi Arabia

The economy of Saudi Arabia is primary linked to oil price. For the next 2-3 years most analyst bet on steady growth in oil price, thus, It is likely to forecast economic growth. You know, that the government recently announced that it expects 2.7% GDP real growth rate. On this estimate I would doubt. Last year the government struggled against low oil market by spending cuts in order to lower budget deficit. Now the government plans to raise internal consumer spending by extra payment for government workers and the introduction of value-added taxation (VAT) reform. These all may strive GDP up to 2.0% - 2.1% growth maximum (as per the expectation of barrel of oil at $70).

[Positive] Teg: United Arab Emirates

A recovery in oil prices together with diversification (to non-ore sectors) course announced by state officials will help the UAE economy to increase in 2018 at the rate of 3-4% in real GDP. Also recent growth in VAT will increase tax revenue which ultimately boost government spending (this will add around 1% in real GDP. As maybe easily seen from statistic page, tourism is also developing in good shape for 2018-2019 (tourism sector is one of the major item in state agenda for diversification)