Emerging, Real GDP YOY%
Emerging, Real GDP YOY%
Costa Rica2.91.3
Czech Republic5.12.72.5
El Salvador2.3
Saudi Arabia-
South Africa1.61.11.8
South Korea3.12.72.8
Sri Lanka3.23.2
United Arab Emirates0.81.73.1
[Positive] Teg: China

At the moment most annalists emphasize that this year China are faced with threats and so called big worries: (a) US tax reform which result in capital flow from China into the US, (b) tightening of financial and environmental regulations, (c) slowdown of housing and infrastructure construction in 2018-2019

[Positive] Teg: Saudi Arabia

The economy is expected to benefit this 2018 year from higher oil prices reflecting the success of cuts by OPEC and allies and strong as expected global growth compared to 2017. This additional revenue will help to boost internal consumption which constitute around the half of SA GDP. I would suggest a gradual growth in GDP from 2.2% in 2018 up to 2.5% in 2021. Also, the government announced privatization of Saudi Aramco and some others assets, this should attract more foreign investors to Saudi Arabia. If it happens it would be the greatest oil stock IPO with the total value of more than 1.5 trillions of dolor (I am measuring by Price-to-Reserves multiple). How many shares the Government would offer we do not know but it is rationale around 5%-10% in IPO, which would result in 75-150 billion of dollars. This is a good sign for investors and opportunities that Saudi Arabia offers if they would not postpone privatization as it was...

[Positive] Teg: Venezuela

Frankly speaking if I were the president of Venezuela - Mr. Maduro - I think that the only right step to do in order to take control over the long run recession is to restrain all so-called democracy to take the control over everything with a help of police and military. Then, to ask, to plead Mr. Putin to establish military facility here in Venezuela in order to protect physically itself from US wrath. And ultimately to write off all its debt... This will, clearly, help with oil prices and will limit US influence over Venezuela's power of democracy. The only one favorable exit (from recession and crisis) is to use BRICs conjointly with Russia and China (at least with Russia). Just rhetorical question: why Anglo-Saxon countries are in relative prosperous position? the answer is that they always act jointly (via NATO for example). NATO has come to Russian boundaries right at hand. Thus, Venezuela should persuade Mr. Putin to come closer to US boundaries. You will say this is like a cold war.. Of course, cold war has never been stopped. Venezuela is the country that must to be prosperous but to do so we need to act jointly, otherwise we all lose one-by-one.

[Positive] Teg: China

I believe that China is able to achieve its goal, announced in April 2018 by the Communist Party of China, to double real GDP by 2020 compared with the level in 2010, that would require real GDP growth to average at least 6.3% a year in 2018-2020. Money squeeze in 2017 will make negative impact on economic activity, however, I think this is likely to be offset by looser economic policy settings. Therefore consumption and investment growth will remain stable in 2018. The external sector is sensible to US-China trade tensions, but I don't expect an escalation into full-blown trade war that could have a major impact on GDP growth in China. And in spite this trade frictions I expect that China's large merchandise trade surplus will expand over 2018-2022. Also, according to my expectations, the consumer prices will grow by an average of 2.6% per year in 2018-2022

[Negative] Teg: Ukraine

The economy of Ukraine is predominated by politicians. In economic theory we do not possess any method to estimated growth or downfall. What we may judge on the available facts, surely, that gas pipeline system of Ukraine will suffer from other competitive routes bypassing Ukraine (Nord Stream 2 and Sooth Stream to Turkey). I witnessed that real offshore works in Baltic and Black seas are underway. Taking into account the balance of gas supply from Russia, and the planned capacity of new Streams, I would suggest that Ukraine would lost at least 80% of current capacity

[Positive] Teg: Indonesia

I expect further growth of Indonesia's economy, which will be accompanied by real GDP growth of 5.1% per year in 2018-2022. Growth in private consumption will remain strong and especially will be supported by election-related spending in 2019, as populist government measures for supporting household consumption. According to my forecast, the government's efforts to increase the inflow of private investments (domestic and foreign) in infrastructure and manufacturing will ensure capital raising in the mid-term. As a result, gross fixed investment will increase by 5.6% on average in 2018-2022.

[Negative] Teg: Argentina

Some businesses would be upset if they (as it was announced by the Government) cut economic subsidies mainly for energy and transport. I do not think that for these funds they (the government) may find more efficient application in others sectors if the money really be transferred to any of demanding sectors at all. I bet that the funds will go to government itself (for their internal needs) as it was in Argentina history from time to time.

[Positive] Teg: Turkey

As emerging economy Turkey offers the best investment case in terms of growth and downside risk in oil-linked shares. Due to positive dynamic in world oil prices as I estimate to be limited to 70 USD per barrel for 2018 year

[Positive] Teg: Georgia

According to the data of the national statistics office of Georgia, the real GDP growth increased from 2.8% in 2016 to 5% in 2017. This growth was driven by the construction, consumer goods trade, manufacturing, transport, financial services and real estate. Also on the back of increasing export volumes and prices, recovery in remittances from Russia and stable growth of earnings from tourism, the current-account deficit decreased. I forecast this trend of reducing current-account deficit will continue in 2018-2022, which will be also supported by growing private consumption and stable foreign direct investments inflows. In addition I think that political situation in the country will remain stable in the mid-term, so I have positive outlook on the economic development of Georgia.

[Neutral] Teg: Brazil

Brazil is going through real serious budget problems: aging of population with the trimming of social security spending. This is the main drawback for growth potentials of the country . Most people thinks the future election may help. I am skeptical to this. I would suggest to increase pension age and to invest heavily on to the sectors to replace imports.

[Negative] Teg: Morocco

In 2018 officials of Morocco suggest that economic growth will slow down to 2.8% this year 2018, down from 4% in 2017 due to a decline in agricultural production caused by bad weather condition (scarcity of rainfall). I would put more moderate growth forecast on officials levels due to the increase of unemployment in 2017 which is likely to remain the same or increase a little - I do not see any job creating initiatives relative a year before. This would narrow official forecast of growth and would hold Morocco's economy back.

[Positive] Teg: Saudi Arabia

The economy of Saudi Arabia is primary linked to oil price. For the next 2-3 years most analyst bet on steady growth in oil price, thus, It is likely to forecast economic growth. You know, that the government recently announced that it expects 2.7% GDP real growth rate. On this estimate I would doubt. Last year the government struggled against low oil market by spending cuts in order to lower budget deficit. Now the government plans to raise internal consumer spending by extra payment for government workers and the introduction of value-added taxation (VAT) reform. These all may strive GDP up to 2.0% - 2.1% growth maximum (as per the expectation of barrel of oil at $70).

[Negative] Teg: Venezuela

One hope that current oil price increase would somehow give some strength to Venezuela economy. It has great oil reserves but how it is now the poorest country. They need very strong government to take the control over all sectors, including mass media and to restrain all of it , I mean any public violent demonstration. But before doing so, for the health of all officials of Venezuela it is worth to solicit support from Russia and China (within BRICs). This only may help. Well, just economic reforms will not help at all. Please, not be naive. Only strong, military government may help, may change the situation for the better

[Negative] Teg: Turkey

After rapid increase in real GDP at the end of 2017 (+3.3% in 2016 vs +7.3% in 2017), supported by government stimulus measures and credit guarantees, as well as political pressure on banks to provide a loans and improved export competitiveness, I expect that in 2018 the Turkey's economic growth will slow down to 4%. This slowdown will reflect the impact of tax boost, higher interest rates, tightening of global liquidity against the backdrop of weaker Turkish Lira, increased inherent instability and higher inflation. As a result all planned government measures to increase employment and investment, will be fully blocked by these negative factors. In addition, foreign capital inflows will be offset by political instability in line with the transition to a presidential system of government, domestic financial vulnerability and lower interest rate in comparison with the developed economies.

[Positive] Teg: United Arab Emirates

Most analysts estimates GDP growth in 2018 to be 2-3 pp more than in 2017 thanks to solid upward in oil prices and service sector development in the economy of UAE

[Positive] Teg: Argentina

Most sources say that the economy of Argentine is expected to accelerate in 2018 and 2019 on the grounds of the increase of consumption and investments in fixed assets. I remember that they want to raise infrastructure's investments by 20% this year. It is very nice and promising for businesses which engaged in mineral resource extraction, agricultural and chemical sector, well would be done and for the others in total. In such scenario GDP would expand minimum by 3% this year and by 4% in 2019. It is also worth to note (on my opinion this is important) that the government announce to cut the spending's on state apparatus. Nonetheless, this in total is ideal picture. To be skeptical for GDP, I guess adequate rates for 2018 and 2019 are 2% and 2.5%

[Negative] Teg: China

There are rumors that in light of china's currency depreciation, the central bank is likely to tighten liquidity. Obviously, it will raise further concerns in relation to the growth outlook of China. I explain: the US tax reform is underway, and once to be carried out this will cause interest rate increase in the US market, the will result in capital flow from China into the US and will ultimately weaken the yuan. Thus I think that GDP growth will slow.

[Positive] Teg: Turkey

Turkey offers a good growth potential in terms of GDP for the next two years 2018-2019 with the real rate 5% as a minimum. This is driven by governmental fiscal stimulus and the increase of export. And I read many analysts bet on strong growth dynamics of Turkish economy. Main factors are oil price growth (export), internal consumption strengthening and attraction of new foreign investments, these drivers seem to continue feeding up the economy growth, although the increase might slow down to more moderate levels in mid-term. The growth in internal consumption is also base on the clear reduction dynamic of unemployment rate. Also, many tourists are coming back (e.g. from Russia) which makes businesses to be more optimistic for near future

[Positive] Teg: Brazil

After recession in 2015-2016 Brazil shows strong signs of recovery. The major problem of Brazil economy was high inflation that led to (1) decreased real consumption (coupled with high unemployment rate), (2) higher interest rate (for both households and government). Banco Central do Brazil was able to take prices under control and, thus, ensuring a healthy mix of falling inflation and lower interest rates. The result is economy growth due to (1) private consumption increasing, (2) unemployment decreasing, (3) export increasing. Nevertheless, budget deficit remains high and that creates risks. That is why I assume that next steps might be (1) limitation of government expenses, (2) privatization, (3) pension reform (particularly, unpopular measures such as raise the retirement age).

[Positive] Teg: Mexico

In 2017 foreign investments in Mexico fell due to uncertainty relating to USA commitments to NAFTA. This will result in poor growth of GDP for 2018. This goes together with domestic policy uncertainty remains until presidential election on 1st July 2018. After, I would suggest that we may expect pro-American president thus we may expect positive shifts in policy (mainly renegotiation of NAFTA with the USA). Growth in Mexico seems to be moderately higher in 2019 and 2020, at 2.5-2.7 percent per annum but this year 2018 - poor 1.0% - 1.9%