Emerging, Real GDP YOY%
2015201620172019E2020E2021E
Emerging, Real GDP YOY%32.63.63.33.23.2
Argentina2.8-3.13.8333.2
Bahrain2.842.332.7
Brazil-5.8-2.71.42.72.72.2
Bulgaria3.73.63.93.43.32.8
Chile2.31.21.63.33.53.1
China6.86.76.86.36.26
Colombia3.41.533.13.33.7
Costa Rica3.93.52.73.53.1
Croatia2.63.13.42.72.62.3
Cyprus1.43.15.62.72.32.5
Czech Republic4.91.85.132.72.5
Ecuador-2-1.53.31.61.91.8
Egypt21.74.85.25.66
El Salvador2.42.42.32.22.2
Estonia0.824.232.33
Georgia32.64.44.655.2
Ghana4.24.69.76.75.95.1
Guatemala42.62.73.53.5
Honduras3.63.64.83.93.8
Hungary3.12.44.33.22.62.4
India7.26.86.37.47.67.8
Indonesia5.255.15.55.45.6
Jamaica0.82.112.22.4
Jordan2.61.81.82.72.73
Kazakhstan1.20.44.33.53.33.1
Kenya5.55.64.75.75.96.5
Kuwait1.93.6-2.92.82.94
Latvia2.30.66.23.22.93.2
Lithuania1.92.23.62.92.82.7
Luxembourg3.253.23.12.93.2
Malaysia4.64.36.25.154.7
Mexico2.52.11.62.42.22.9
Mongolia2.415.1
Morocco51.73.83.83.74.5
Netherlands1.62.42.92.21.82
Nigeria2.1-2.31.23.132
Oman5.7-0.32.83
Pakistan4.55.45.85.65.25
Panama5.34.54.95.65.5
Paraguay0.75.34.7443.9
Peru4.74.42.93.743.9
Philippines6.16.96.76.66.77
Poland4.62.65.23.53.22.8
Qatar3.91.732.83.22.7
Romania4.24.18.53.63.43.1
Russia-3.7-0.21.51.71.71.5
Saudi Arabia4.32.1-1.42.32.32.1
Slovakia4.233.543.53.7
Slovenia2.83.44.53.32.72.5
South Africa0.60.91.322.31.8
South Korea2.82.93.12.82.72.8
Sri Lanka2.55.33.24.75
Tanzania6.86.66.8
Thailand2.93.33.93.73.93.6
Tunisia0.71.4233.8
Turkey4.63.13.93.93.6
Ukraine-1.42.32.433.23.7
United Arab Emirates3.830.83.13.43.1
Uruguay-1.31.11.93.132.9
Vietnam76.67.56.66.76.5
[Positive] Teg: Russia

Russia's economy is highly depends on oil prices and I expect that the global oil prices will continue its bullish trend. Following OPEC's meeting in June, Russia is expected to increase oil production. Against the backdrop of the rising oil prices, Russia's trade surplus should significantly increase in 2018. Also I expect that the current account to remain in surplus in 2018-2022, driven by strong trade surpluses. Sanctions against Russia made negative effect on the foreign direct investment inflows, however I expect that these inflows will recover in 2019-2022. I believe in Russia's economy and bet on its stable growth in the mid-term.

Laura S. Dixon I would argue that Russian economy is highly dependent on oil and gas. It  is about 35% in my judgement. Military development is the main driver for Russia, especialy their business in Syria in order to manage oil prices  
[Positive] Teg: Mexico

In spite of Mexico-US tensions, I expect further growth of the country's economy, which will be provided by increasing industrial production. The Mexican peso's depreciation will push the external demand for Mexican products, which in turn will make a positive impact on local manufacturing production and exports. Also mining production will continue to support total industrial production growth, as well as construction activity will continue to expand. In sum, my positive outlook on Mexico's economy reflects sustainable growth in the mid-term.

[Positive] Teg: Georgia

According to the data of the national statistics office of Georgia, the real GDP growth increased from 2.8% in 2016 to 5% in 2017. This growth was driven by the construction, consumer goods trade, manufacturing, transport, financial services and real estate. Also on the back of increasing export volumes and prices, recovery in remittances from Russia and stable growth of earnings from tourism, the current-account deficit decreased. I forecast this trend of reducing current-account deficit will continue in 2018-2022, which will be also supported by growing private consumption and stable foreign direct investments inflows. In addition I think that political situation in the country will remain stable in the mid-term, so I have positive outlook on the economic development of Georgia.

[Negative] Teg: China

I expect the slowdown in China's economic growth in the near-term, driven by reduction in domestic demand, which would be the main constraint on achieving ambitious plan of the government for economic expansion. Also I think that slowdown in industrial production will continue its negative trend and will lead to volatility in domestic financial markets, based on concerns about risks related to the trade outlook. Probably, US-China trade tensions will fresh strain and will make a negative direct impact on the Chinese economy. That's why I have bearish view on China's economy in the mid-term.

[Neutral] Teg: Saudi Arabia

I expect that Saudi Arabian economy growth will accelerate on the back of higher oil price (thus, higher domestic demand) and higher oil production. Despite these results, risks remain high due to low economy diversification. That is why long-term stability of growth is rely on implemented National Transformation Program, and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salmana shows strong signal to investors longer-term commitment to continue the reforms. However, the question is about money for these reforms as budget deficit increasing. Additional factor that makes matters worse is increasing poverty level and, thus, increasing social unrest.

[Negative] Teg: Mexico

Relations with the US, Mexico's dominant trade and investment partner, will continue to be foreign-policy priority for the country. I think that tension will persist, due to Donald Trump's determination to build a border wall and tighten restrictions on immigration, as well as his rigid position on trade. In addition, I see continuous risk in NAFTA negotiations, which are accompanied by disagreements. In my view uncertainty over NAFTA and Mexico's presidential elections will weaken business and consumer confidence in short-term, resulting in slowdown of capital inflows. Also I don't expect that education and other reforms implemented over the last years will reach their potential, due to weakness of government institutions. Weak public investment, significant dependence on import and high level of poverty (almost 50% of the population) will also impede economic growth. Therefore I have negative outlook for the economic development of Mexico.

[Positive] Teg: Vietnam

In near-term perspective, I assume Vietnam will continue to benefit from economy growth driven by export growth, inflows of foreign direct investment and high level of labor force (coupled with low unemployment rate). Real weakening of Vietnam's Dong (due to lower nominal rate and lower inflation) is additional support for export growth. Nevertheless, I assume that there are risks that worth to be noted: 1) Export: (a) low diversification (20% of all Vietnam's export is Samsung's Vietnam-based manufacturing plants), (b) threat of protectionism and declining of global trade. 2) Public debt rapid growth (~65% of GDP). Planned measures to lower the growth rate of public debt will lead to lower lower government spending (particularly, on infrastructure projects). 3) Private debt rapid growth. In long-term perspectives there is a risk of worsening situation in banking system (current level of bad debts ~5%). 4) Demographic: rapidly aging population (therefore, there is a need to implement a long-term program for productivity increasing)

[Negative] Teg: Turkey

After rapid increase in real GDP at the end of 2017 (+3.3% in 2016 vs +7.3% in 2017), supported by government stimulus measures and credit guarantees, as well as political pressure on banks to provide a loans and improved export competitiveness, I expect that in 2018 the Turkey's economic growth will slow down to 4%. This slowdown will reflect the impact of tax boost, higher interest rates, tightening of global liquidity against the backdrop of weaker Turkish Lira, increased inherent instability and higher inflation. As a result all planned government measures to increase employment and investment, will be fully blocked by these negative factors. In addition, foreign capital inflows will be offset by political instability in line with the transition to a presidential system of government, domestic financial vulnerability and lower interest rate in comparison with the developed economies.

[Negative] Teg: Indonesia

My negative outlook on Indonesia's economy reflects the ongoing deficit in merchandise trade balance, which will keep on during 2018-2022. The negative trend of trade balance will be formed by higher commodity prices, as well as Indonesia's strong demand for imported capital goods. The main Indonesia's exports will continue to be natural resources, which will be under pressure due to widening of tariffs on goods imported to the US and possibility of slowdown in China's economic growth. As a result, the trade surplus will not be enough to cover the solid deficit on the primary income account, which I expect to widen to 2022. This also reflects repatriation of funds by foreign firms, as well as an increase in borrowing costs related to Indonesia's large external bond debt, due to higher US interest rates.

[Positive] Teg: China

I expect that China's economy growth will be more moderate in coming years (6 - 6.5%), however, that will mainly caused by Government's plan of 'high-quality development': reducing of imbalances in economy, reducing pollution, stabilization of financing sector. As a result, it is expected (1) further decline in investment due to capacity cuts and stricter pollution controls, (2) tighter credit conditions that will lead to demand decreasing. In the same time, government is likely to support the growth by fiscal stimulus (through SOE and infrastructure projects). I assume that long-term results could be mostly positive for China economy (despite lower growth in near-term). However, there are some challenges for Government in near and long-term perspective: 1) Possible trade war with USA (that could cost for China 1-2% of GDP growth). 2) Demographic: rapidly aging population, declining labor force (one of the key issue announced by The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, a leading government think tank). 3) Unemployment growth, particularly, due to planned reducing of imbalances in economy and capacity cuts. Coupled with rising living cost, this problem might create a social instability in China. 4) Local governments debts. Despite China conducts tighter monetary policy to stabilize its financing sector, the real situation with local governments debts is opaque (due to local government financing vehicles, public-private partnerships and possible faking reporting data)

[Positive] Teg: Indonesia

I expect further growth of Indonesia's economy, which will be accompanied by real GDP growth of 5.1% per year in 2018-2022. Growth in private consumption will remain strong and especially will be supported by election-related spending in 2019, as populist government measures for supporting household consumption. According to my forecast, the government's efforts to increase the inflow of private investments (domestic and foreign) in infrastructure and manufacturing will ensure capital raising in the mid-term. As a result, gross fixed investment will increase by 5.6% on average in 2018-2022.

[Positive] Teg: Russia

Russia's economy shows positive signs of recovery and returns to growth. The main engines of this recovery are: (1) improved and stable macroeconomic situation: low inflation, low unemployment rate, higher real wages (and, thus, domestic private demand), lower interest rates, etc., (2) improved business environment (e.g., Ease of doing business index, ranking of Russia: 2014 = 92, 2015 = 62, 2016 = 51, 2017 = 40, 2018 = 35), (3) favorable commodity prices. I assume that near-term risk associated with USA sanctions against Russian companies and USA increased import tariffs for steel and aluminum will not have significant effect for economy growth. However, there are some fundamental issues that could adversely affect Russian economy: (1) Russian banking system problems. Despite Central Bank's attempts to clean banking system, one should note that (a) these activities are rather costly (some estimate ~$40 ban up to now), (b) competitiveness is decreasing (as the share of private banks decreasing), (c) confidence of business in the banking system is low. (2) Decreasing productivity coupled with declining labor force (due to demographic). (3) Traditional dependence of Russian economy from oil and gas (mainly, due to high share of oil and gas income in Budget)

[Positive] Teg: Brazil

I expect that Brazil's economy will continue to recover from downfall in 2015-2016, as well as weak growth in 2017, and will show annual average real GDP growth at 2.6% in 2018-2022. Lower inflation and interest rates are supporting the growth of private consumption, given by stimulating retail sales and improving household and company balance sheets. However, the credit growth is weak, due to the banks haven't adapted to the sharp decline in the policy rate. In my view, by implementing fiscal reforms and pursuing a sensible policy, the next government could increase the investment, after falling by 25% in 2015-2016, and provide stable economic growth in 2018-2022. Therefore I have positive outlook for Brazil's economy.

[Positive] Teg: South Korea

In the near-term, I assume that Korean economy will be able to show relatively high growth rate (~3% in 2018-19) as a result of export growth (especially, in semiconductor industry) and fiscal stimulus (through government expenses increasing). In the long term, economic outlook is hazy as it relies on the possibility to solve fundamental economic problems (high level of unemployment, population ageing, high power of large enterprises called chaebol and low level of competitiveness), as well as on external political factors (negative - USA might withdraw from free-trade agreement, positive - possible recovery of relationship with North Korea).

[Negative] Teg: South Africa

In spite of installation of Cyril Ramaphosa as the new president and following increasing confidence from the international community and investors, I don't have positive outlook for the South African economy. Tighter fiscal policy and a rise of taxes to keep debt under control and prevent additional credit downgrades, will impede efforts to boost growth. Also structural constraints such as skills shortages and inefficient state-owned companies will continue to weaken economic activity, as well as negative external balance will affect the economic growth in the mid-term.

[Positive] Teg: China

I believe that China is able to achieve its goal, announced in April 2018 by the Communist Party of China, to double real GDP by 2020 compared with the level in 2010, that would require real GDP growth to average at least 6.3% a year in 2018-2020. Money squeeze in 2017 will make negative impact on economic activity, however, I think this is likely to be offset by looser economic policy settings. Therefore consumption and investment growth will remain stable in 2018. The external sector is sensible to US-China trade tensions, but I don't expect an escalation into full-blown trade war that could have a major impact on GDP growth in China. And in spite this trade frictions I expect that China's large merchandise trade surplus will expand over 2018-2022. Also, according to my expectations, the consumer prices will grow by an average of 2.6% per year in 2018-2022

[Negative] Teg: Brazil

Despite recent stabilization in Brazilian economy after recession in 2015-2016, I assume that this recovery will be short-lived. The thing is, budget deficit remains high and its reduction might lead to both growth lowering (due to reduction of government spending) and social instability (due to unpopular measures such as raise the retirement age). As a result, political crisis is quite possible and, if so, that will lead to second wave of recession

[Negative] Teg: Russia

The confrontation between Russia and the West intensified statist, nationalist and protectionist trends within the government. At this case the main priority for the Russian government will be economic sovereignty, which would be expressed by insulating the economy from external shocks. The main tools of this strategy include a large positive sovereign external asset position, protectionist measures to support domestic manufacturing through import substitution and a cautious approach to foreign investment. In my view the implementation of this strategy as part of transformation period will be associated with a slowdown in the Russian economy growth rate in the medium term. Also the weakness of most political and legal institutions, as well opaque governance system, will put additional pressure on the country in this transitory period.

[Positive] Teg: Brazil

After recession in 2015-2016 Brazil shows strong signs of recovery. The major problem of Brazil economy was high inflation that led to (1) decreased real consumption (coupled with high unemployment rate), (2) higher interest rate (for both households and government). Banco Central do Brazil was able to take prices under control and, thus, ensuring a healthy mix of falling inflation and lower interest rates. The result is economy growth due to (1) private consumption increasing, (2) unemployment decreasing, (3) export increasing. Nevertheless, budget deficit remains high and that creates risks. That is why I assume that next steps might be (1) limitation of government expenses, (2) privatization, (3) pension reform (particularly, unpopular measures such as raise the retirement age).

[Positive] Teg: India

I think that further economic growth in India, with an average annual GDP growth of 7.6% in 2018-2023, will be supported by strong increases in private consumption and accelerating gross fixed investment. However, this will depend on progress in recapitalizing the banking sector, because a lack of broader reforms in the sector will continue to place constraints on lending activity. Also I see positive impact for the investor sentiment in government measures for improving the business environment, such as tax reforms and the increased digitalization of government-to-business services. However, India's trade deficit will remain high in 2018-2022, due to price of crude oil, which is India's largest import item in value terms. Exports will increase, but the rate of growth will be incommensurable in comparison with imports growth.