Developed, Real GDP YOY%
2016201720182019E2020E2021E
Developed, Real GDP YOY%1.92.62.221.71.7
Australia2.12.82.82.82.72.7
Austria12.52.221.71.5
Belgium1.51.71.51.41.5
Canada1.532.121.71.8
Denmark20.92.31.91.61.8
Finland2.62.32.521.61.3
France0.92.71.41.61.51.7
Germany1.82.61.11.61.51.4
Greece1.12.42.4221.6
Hong Kong2.23.62.92.52.53.1
Iceland103.42.62.92.62.8
Israel4.53.42.93.43.13
Italy0.91.70.710.91
Japan0.92.10.90.50.7
New Zealand3.82.72.72.82.82.9
Norway-0.83.81.62.321.9
Portugal1.82.52.11.81.51.2
Singapore23.62.72.52.6
Spain3.22.92.42.21.91.7
Sweden2.62.61.721.91.9
Switzerland1.51.72.21.71.71.7
Taiwan23.42.32.32.22
United Kingdom1.91.81.51.61.5
United States1.52.22.51.91.8
[Neutral] Teg: Japan

In Japan, growth trend is set to be maintained in 2018, but weaken thereafter as fiscal policy will benefit from planned consumption tax increase. I revised the growth less than 1% for the next years. As I think there is only one possibility to climb at 1% on even more is the expected growth of Global Demand, obviously from Main 3 (USA, China, EU). As per the USA and China - new incentives over softening of tax burdens on corporates - expected to be aggressive using Trump's words. Thus, import is the main driver for the economy of Japan. As It is easy to overestimate the influence of imports, I would tag neutral on the economy of Japan.

[Negative] Teg: Japan

The government announced a new annual economic policy package in June, which were added economic reforms and an investment strategy for revitalization of the country. However, I don't expect that this year's plan to stimulate the economy and decrease the fiscal deficit will be achieved, due to pressure from an ageing population. Anyway if implementation of the policy would be successful, I think all growth prospects would be overlapped by increasing tensions in global commerce caused by destructive US trade policy. Therefore it's not clear for me how this year's economic results could recover Japan's economy and achieve the government's measures to stimulate growth and inflation.

[Positive] Teg: Canada

European import is the main driver for the economy of Canada. As per official sources of EU officers they are not expect any increase of imports of goods. In contrary China and US market's tend to increase import from Canadian business. Thus, I put moderate increase in GDP for the next 2 years

[Positive] Teg: Hong Kong

Positive sentiment for helping high-tech businesses in Hong Kong - a promise given by Hong Kong's chief executive, Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor to reduce the profit tax on companies and grand tax remissions for their investments in R&D (research and development). This doubtless would attract existing business to invest more in qualifying research and development as well as would attract new investments from abroad to establish new technical divisions in Hong Kong

[Negative] Teg: United Kingdom

After Brexit referendum in 2016 UK economy growth rate is constantly decreasing (2015 = 2.3%, 2016 = 1.9%, 2017 = 1.8%). And I assume that full negative effect from both Brexit and entrenched UK economy problems will be felt by UK only in 2019 (planned exit from the EU is March 2019). 1) Productivity problem. During last decade UK's productivity growth is constantly slowing down. As a result, Office for Budget Responsibility's long-term productivity forecast was halved down to 1.2%. 2) Higher inflation due to weaker sterling and, thus, weaker consumer spending power due to Brexit. I assume that weaker consumer spending power is the major cause of slower UK economy growth. One should note that this negative effect is partially offset by industrial production and export growth on the back of weak sterling and global growth. However, I believe that this positive offset will be quite limited as real investments will decline due to political uncertainty. Additional consequence of this factor is accelerating (double-digit) growth in unsecured lending (however, current level of consumer debt to GDP is still below pre-crisis level). 3) UK/EU deal uncertainty. UK wants to maintain a special trading relationship with the EU after leaving EU, but EU, obviously, does not want to give UK such benefits. I assume that negative outcome for UK is quite probable. As a result, additional slowing of UK economy in 2019 is highly likely

[Negative] Teg: United States

The US economy is one of the most diversified national economies in the world and has been leading the world economy for the last 100 years. The US is having strong growth momentum and I think this trend will continue in 2018-2019. The strong labour market data will keep the Federal Reserve on a steady path of monetary tightening, so I expect an additional rate increase during 2018-2019. Geopolitical concerns in Europe and better-than-expected economic data of the US are driving the price of US dollar, however, the renewed trade war jitters may pause US dollar's rising anytime. In addition, I expect further growth of the US economy given by significant support from the tax reform and the budgetary expenditure

[Positive] Teg: Australia

Australian representatives two or three years in a row talks about rebalancing to non-mining sector through government investments into it. They plans tax relief for business (a gradual reduction) by 5 p.p. They do it on the pace of the Trumps attempt for aggressive tax rate cuts for businesses. This is rather good news for industry. thanks'. This will generate jobs and helps to raise sluggish economic development into somewhat measurable.

[Negative] Teg: Germany

I guess that aging society of German is the main challenge for its economy. In the logic the government should accelerate special education for immigrants in order to promote solid economic growth. But of course this is very sensible thing which may be in the agenda in minimum 5 years.

[Negative] Teg: Sweden

Growth will likely remain in 2018 as it was back to 2017. With interest rates in the country at -0.5%, holding cash in bank cost people some money, curiously but true. They need to reconsider monetary and fiscal policy to boost growth. Negative rates are widely criticized but Sweden seems not to turn against negative rates, as they just do not want to cap output and lessen real wages. I would argue on the efficiency of such a policy (this only gives the opportunity to earn by the government with tax and lessened obligations to pay on any debt - Sweden officials are collecting too much tax)

[Negative] Teg: United States

Trump administration and al around political situation add more uncertainly of the opportunity of return rate on investment, that would surely restrain new investors to spend. Also, we need to particularly emphasis the movements of the USA government toward trade protectionism (e.g. 25% import duty on series of china products). This brings us more economic risk in the USA due to the answer from China in trade wars game. The next step from the USA I would expect (a) restrains in foreign investments from China into the USA and (b) defense of intellectual property (copyrights) of US companies (we know how Chinese producers have been copying western brands). All these put more pressure on economic outlook. But I would expect the real GDP growth would be limited by c2% for the next two years

[Positive] Teg: France

France's recovery from its economic downfall in 2012 has been slow in comparison with the most of its European peers. However, according to the results of 2017 (GDP growth = 1.9%) the economic growth has showed the strongest growth since 2011. Taking into account the continued cyclical upturn in the euro zone and increasing of domestic demand, I expect annual growth to average 1.7% in 2019-2022. Also the main challenges for Macron's policy are to reduce the high rate of unemployment (especially among young people), increase competitive advantage, promote the economic growth, improve foreign investors' views about the French labor market, as well as develop the public finances. I believe in Macron's ability to achieve these goals, therefore I expect the reforms will start to gain traction towards the end of 2022.

[Positive] Teg: France

I guess that economic growth of France has remained solid. The government plans: (a) to decrease the share of government spending by 3 p.p. (in terms of GDP) over the next 2 years (2018-2019), incl. cutbacks in subsidised jobs and housing subsidies, (b) to reduce corporate income tax from 33% to 25%, (c) to cut in capital income, wealth and taxes on property.

[Negative] Teg: Italy

Italy faces significant challenges this year and the next 2019. In most sources It is cited that Italy is the potential highest risk factor for the whole Eurozone. It is suffering from high level of public debt (140% of GDP as of Jan-2018), thus banking systems of Italy needs to be largely restructured (but impossible under Eurozone rules). Due to fundamental weakness of the economy, we can not expect any improvements in Mid-term horizon. Also, Political risks add more challenges, I mean that the leader of euro-sceptic Italy's Five Star Movement might come to power in May 2018, one of their hot idea is so-called Italexit seems to be likely, I mean the political actions about it, practically not (at the earliest in 2022). Also, as matter of fact at founding of Party in 2009 the party was anti-Vladimir Putin, but it has since become much more pro-Russia. More likely that after election the political process of independence and pro-Russia will be the same as in Greece. Over

[Negative] Teg: United Kingdom

Private consumption slows due to increase of inflation which limits real spending's of households, all investments are depressed by Brexit. Gloomy projections of real GDP growth.

[Positive] Teg: Switzerland

I think that Switzerland's economy will further benefit from export growth and higher domestic demand. Due to global growth and weak CHF, export growth perspectives are favorable (especially in pharmaceutical industry). That growth supports recovery in industrial activity (PMI is at its highest since 2010), unemployment reduction and growth in real investments from business (as utilized capacity ~80%). However, there is one weak side of Switzerland's economy that I want to mention. Previously, real estate boom was one of the key factors for economy growth. As a result of this boom, one might see that real estate market is imbalanced: declining demand (high household debt, tighter conditions on mortgages), increasing oversupply

[Negative] Teg: Canada

I think that exchange rate, commodity prices and strong US economy will keep deficit of the external account of Canada in 2018-2022. Apart from oil, I expect low commodity prices in coming years and this will make negative impact on the current-account. Now we see healthy private consumption, which supported by continued strong household spending against the backdrop of the low interest rates, cheap fuel and an improving labour market. However, monetary policy tightening and increasing prices on the energy resources will slowdown in the private consumption in the near-term. Therefore I forecast slowdown in economic growth of Canada in 2018-2022.

[Negative] Teg: Australia

I scrutinizes over economist's outlook for the Australian economy in 2018, they are cautiously optimistic, driven largely by improving global conditions but I doubt that such a global conditions will improve. Indeed, do not see the solid reasons for it. Thus, I would put a negative tax on GDP. Also, not to forget the adverse statistic for household consumption in Australia which adds more uncertainty on it. I may refresh your memory - Australia has one of the highest debt-to-GDP ratios for houseless in the world. A little and sudden interest increase will lead to problems on debt servicing for households followed by well-known problems for economic growth

[Positive] Teg: Hong Kong

As per the local new incentives over tax in China and in the US are announced (I mean the softening of tax burdens on corporates) this we may reckon as a positive signal for HK outlook. As well, more finance analyst in Hong Kong are confident and optimistic about HK this year and the next 2019. As you understand Hong Kong is likely to catch up this positive effect (the recovery of the US and mainland China) for the simple reason that Hong Kong plays its role as international financial center - at lease one of the biggest.

[Negative] Teg: Switzerland

Interest rates in the country are -0.75%, holding cash in bank cost people money. They need to reconsider monetary and fiscal policy to boost growth. Negative rates are widely criticized, I also would argue on the efficiency of such a policy

[Negative] Teg: Japan

I expect that Japan economy will continue to grow with growth rate approximately equals to average growth rate in 2012-2017 (Abenomics beginning). The key driver for this is export growth (machinery, chemicals, and non-ferrous metals) due to weak yen and global economy growth. Monetary situation remains healthy as well: despite recent acceleration in inflation, its forecast is still below BoJ target. However, one should note several challenges for Japan economy: 1) Near-term challenges: (1) recent strengthening of yen that increases Japanese exporters concern, (2) weakness in consumer spending due to wages decreasing, as well as new housing construction falling. 2) Fundamental long-term challenge: planned increasing of national sales tax in 2019 from 8% to 10% to cover deficit in pension system (due to Japanese demographic situation). I assume that this will lead to economic growth slowing down (as in 2014 when this tax was increased from 5% to 8%)