Developed, Real GDP YOY%
Developed, Real GDP YOY%
Hong Kong2.
New Zealand3.
United Kingdom1.
United States1.
[Positive] Teg: France

I guess that economic growth of France has remained solid. The government plans: (a) to decrease the share of government spending by 3 p.p. (in terms of GDP) over the next 2 years (2018-2019), incl. cutbacks in subsidised jobs and housing subsidies, (b) to reduce corporate income tax from 33% to 25%, (c) to cut in capital income, wealth and taxes on property.

[Negative] Teg: Italy

Italy faces significant challenges this year and the next 2019. In most sources It is cited that Italy is the potential highest risk factor for the whole Eurozone. It is suffering from high level of public debt (140% of GDP as of Jan-2018), thus banking systems of Italy needs to be largely restructured (but impossible under Eurozone rules). Due to fundamental weakness of the economy, we can not expect any improvements in Mid-term horizon. Also, Political risks add more challenges, I mean that the leader of euro-sceptic Italy's Five Star Movement might come to power in May 2018, one of their hot idea is so-called Italexit seems to be likely, I mean the political actions about it, practically not (at the earliest in 2022). Also, as matter of fact at founding of Party in 2009 the party was anti-Vladimir Putin, but it has since become much more pro-Russia. More likely that after election the political process of independence and pro-Russia will be the same as in Greece. Over

[Negative] Teg: United Kingdom

Private consumption slows due to increase of inflation which limits real spending's of households, all investments are depressed by Brexit. Gloomy projections of real GDP growth.

[Positive] Teg: Switzerland

I think that Switzerland's economy will further benefit from export growth and higher domestic demand. Due to global growth and weak CHF, export growth perspectives are favorable (especially in pharmaceutical industry). That growth supports recovery in industrial activity (PMI is at its highest since 2010), unemployment reduction and growth in real investments from business (as utilized capacity ~80%). However, there is one weak side of Switzerland's economy that I want to mention. Previously, real estate boom was one of the key factors for economy growth. As a result of this boom, one might see that real estate market is imbalanced: declining demand (high household debt, tighter conditions on mortgages), increasing oversupply

[Negative] Teg: Canada

I think that exchange rate, commodity prices and strong US economy will keep deficit of the external account of Canada in 2018-2022. Apart from oil, I expect low commodity prices in coming years and this will make negative impact on the current-account. Now we see healthy private consumption, which supported by continued strong household spending against the backdrop of the low interest rates, cheap fuel and an improving labour market. However, monetary policy tightening and increasing prices on the energy resources will slowdown in the private consumption in the near-term. Therefore I forecast slowdown in economic growth of Canada in 2018-2022.

[Negative] Teg: Australia

I scrutinizes over economist's outlook for the Australian economy in 2018, they are cautiously optimistic, driven largely by improving global conditions but I doubt that such a global conditions will improve. Indeed, do not see the solid reasons for it. Thus, I would put a negative tax on GDP. Also, not to forget the adverse statistic for household consumption in Australia which adds more uncertainty on it. I may refresh your memory - Australia has one of the highest debt-to-GDP ratios for houseless in the world. A little and sudden interest increase will lead to problems on debt servicing for households followed by well-known problems for economic growth

[Positive] Teg: Hong Kong

As per the local new incentives over tax in China and in the US are announced (I mean the softening of tax burdens on corporates) this we may reckon as a positive signal for HK outlook. As well, more finance analyst in Hong Kong are confident and optimistic about HK this year and the next 2019. As you understand Hong Kong is likely to catch up this positive effect (the recovery of the US and mainland China) for the simple reason that Hong Kong plays its role as international financial center - at lease one of the biggest.

[Negative] Teg: Switzerland

Interest rates in the country are -0.75%, holding cash in bank cost people money. They need to reconsider monetary and fiscal policy to boost growth. Negative rates are widely criticized, I also would argue on the efficiency of such a policy

[Negative] Teg: Japan

I expect that Japan economy will continue to grow with growth rate approximately equals to average growth rate in 2012-2017 (Abenomics beginning). The key driver for this is export growth (machinery, chemicals, and non-ferrous metals) due to weak yen and global economy growth. Monetary situation remains healthy as well: despite recent acceleration in inflation, its forecast is still below BoJ target. However, one should note several challenges for Japan economy: 1) Near-term challenges: (1) recent strengthening of yen that increases Japanese exporters concern, (2) weakness in consumer spending due to wages decreasing, as well as new housing construction falling. 2) Fundamental long-term challenge: planned increasing of national sales tax in 2019 from 8% to 10% to cover deficit in pension system (due to Japanese demographic situation). I assume that this will lead to economic growth slowing down (as in 2014 when this tax was increased from 5% to 8%)

[Negative] Teg: Italy

I think that domestic demand growth in Italy and positive outlook for the euro zone economy will be completely offset by political instability in the country. Political uncertainty has increased the potential for financial volatility and could harm the current moderate economic recovery, as well as further postpone of structural reforms at least in the short term. In spite of the possible support by the EU, Italy's high public debt and political instability will continue to give rise to concern for the major euro zone creditor countries, as well as put pressure on stability in the EU and financial sector.

[Positive] Teg: Germany

In most cases (I mean when reading articles written by analysts) the outlook for German economy is promising. They are assumed to implement the policy of wages increase, infrastructure projects. These would boost an inflation (what we know is not bad but indeed positive when it is moderate). The political elite I think must reduce the power of sanction against Russia, I calculated that Germany may easy earn min. 25-30 bn euro. Of course this lies on political grounds and indeterminable in mid-term future.

[Negative] Teg: Spain

I can not pick up drivers that might drive Spain economy in more that 1% real growth due to political uncertainty. Only positive signal is that the USA tax policy changes that would probable boost the recovery of global economy. Particular on Spain we all see the carelessness of official government. I would put negative estimate on Spain among others UN countries. But according to the European Commission, the Spanish economy will subsequently slow down its pace, falling to 2.1% in 2019 from 2.6% in 2018 (these figures are in line with official Spain government). This is too optimistic. They have nothing to do with high rates of unemployment (c.18-20% of labor force) and high level of debt (up to 100% of its GDP)

[Positive] Teg: Australia

I like Australia's ability to maintain economy growth above 2% pa for nearly 25 years (since 1993) and I expect that Australia has cloudless perspectives to continue this tendency at least in near-term (1-2 years). Major factors that will support this growth are (1) strong domestic demand (wage growth and government expenditure), (2) commodity price growth and export growth (despite export growth is slowing, I expect that demand for minerals and LNG in China will be able to fuel export growth from Australia). Nevertheless, there are some concerns that should be noted: (1) slowing labor market (unemployment rate above average, slowdown in jobs growth), (2) increased household debt (as a result of low interest rates)

[Positive] Teg: United States

Over the last year, the US economy has made a profit on combination of stable growth, strengthening leading indicators, modest inflation, as well as gradually rising interest rates. And I think US will continue its growing tendency in 2018-2022. Also the US manufacturing sector is demonstrating the strongest expansion since 2011 and in my view will lead to increasing in manufacturing jobs. In addition I don't expect that US-China trade tensions will make direct negative impact on the US economy, so I bet on further sustained growth of the country?s economy.

[Neutral] Teg: Canada

Economic growth rate I expect to slow in the next two years as household consumption and government spending slows. Recent developments in consumption has not been transferred to the increase in wages and I think that house prices will continues to slow, no considerable job growth (if any at all). They also did not announced any substantial government investments. Thus, I project the growth of Canadian economy to ease

[Negative] Teg: Hong Kong

I would attract your attention to some negative factors which I see would be the main obstacles for Hong Kong economy developing more that 5% per year (in GDP terms): (a) not enough investments to build-up resident property for meeting the rising demand, HK has very high property prices, (b) political environment does not give me confidence to invest and preserve value (as foreign investor), and (c) the competition from other countries in light industries, in tourism, in banking city center leadership.

[Negative] Teg: United Kingdom

I would suggest that all situation over Skripal Case was done by internal forces of Great Britain itself, by the community against Teresa Mai. I believe that they just set her up (to make her as a scapegoat). This is the easiest way and method for internal political struggle. Well, this in coupe with high level of debt against European Union due to Brexit leaves us with no driver for growth in economy of Great Britain. At least, very modest opportunities.

[Neutral] Teg: United States

In the near term (1-2 year), I expect that Trump administration will be able to accelerate US economy growth: 1) 'Tax Cuts and Jobs Act' (that assumes decrease in corporate tax) and 'Bipartisan Budget Act of 2018' (that assumes to raise the spending limits for both defense and non-defense funding). 2) Protectionist policy: possible NAFTA cancelation, exit from TPP, recently announced import taxes for steel and aluminum, etc. However, one should note that even in near-term there are some issues that could limit the positive effect of proposed measures. First, unemployment rate is at the lows, thus, additional spending could lead to higher inflation (not real activity). Second, interest rates are likely to be risen that lower demand. Third, effect for real investment growth due to proposed tax cut could be overestimated (capital costs have been very low for a long time, but investment growth was modest). Nevertheless, I think that major concern is US economy's long-term perspective. Proposed measures will increase fragility of US economy due to increased risks and, as a result, I assume that negative scenario is quite possible: 1) higher interest rates: decreasing of demand on US Treasuries (as other assets will become more attractive) coupled with supply increasing (to finance proposed program), 2) significant decreasing in government stimulus after 2020 due to need to maintain increased debt with higher interest rate, 3) higher inflation, 4) overall cost increasing in economy as a result of protectionism

[Positive] Teg: Japan

I think the government will continue the course of economic revival, which provides bold monetary and flexible fiscal policies, as well as structural reforms. Extension of these policies in 2018-2019 will mean that by 2020 Japan will have completed its longest period of economic recovery since the 1980s. The government will continue to implement structural reforms, however, I think it will be difficult for the country to achieve its ambitious goal of expanding the economy to $6 trn to 2021. In spite of the last weak results of private consumption and investment spending, I expect that Japan's real GDP will show stable growth averaging 1.2% a year in 2018-2022, given by the continued support of flexible fiscal policy and steady growth in external demand. In addition, in 2018-2022 I expect surplus in trade account provided by global goods export growth, restarting of more nuclear power plants, as well as increasing tourist arrivals, especially due to Olympics in 2020.

[Neutral] Teg: Germany

The main feature of German economy, as I think, is very high level of current accounts surplus (around 7-9% of GDP, this is one of the highest level within developed peers) This is one of the keys potential driver for economic growth. High surplus demonstrates that Germans and companies of the country still prefer to save rather than invest. The government should offer Germans some incentives to invest. Why not to increase a little bit of inflation (e.g. steady increase in wages, more government spending, etc.). I am sure this is like low-hanging fruits.