Developed, Real GDP YOY%
2016201720182019E2020E2021E
Developed, Real GDP YOY%1.92.62.221.71.7
Australia2.12.82.82.82.72.7
Austria12.52.221.71.5
Belgium1.51.71.51.41.5
Canada1.532.121.71.8
Denmark20.92.31.91.61.8
Finland2.62.32.521.61.3
France0.92.71.41.61.51.7
Germany1.82.61.11.61.51.4
Greece1.12.42.4221.6
Hong Kong2.23.62.92.52.53.1
Iceland103.42.62.92.62.8
Israel4.53.42.93.43.13
Italy0.91.70.710.91
Japan0.92.10.90.50.7
New Zealand3.82.72.72.82.82.9
Norway-0.83.81.62.321.9
Portugal1.82.52.11.81.51.2
Singapore23.62.72.52.6
Spain3.22.92.42.21.91.7
Sweden2.62.61.721.91.9
Switzerland1.51.72.21.71.71.7
Taiwan23.42.32.32.22
United Kingdom1.91.81.51.61.5
United States1.52.22.51.91.8
[Neutral] Teg: Germany

The main feature of German economy, as I think, is very high level of current accounts surplus (around 7-9% of GDP, this is one of the highest level within developed peers) This is one of the keys potential driver for economic growth. High surplus demonstrates that Germans and companies of the country still prefer to save rather than invest. The government should offer Germans some incentives to invest. Why not to increase a little bit of inflation (e.g. steady increase in wages, more government spending, etc.). I am sure this is like low-hanging fruits.

[Positive] Teg: Australia

Australian representatives two or three years in a row talks about rebalancing to non-mining sector through government investments into it. They plans tax relief for business (a gradual reduction) by 5 p.p. They do it on the pace of the Trumps attempt for aggressive tax rate cuts for businesses. This is rather good news for industry. thanks'. This will generate jobs and helps to raise sluggish economic development into somewhat measurable.

[Negative] Teg: Spain

I can not pick up drivers that might drive Spain economy in more that 1% real growth due to political uncertainty. Only positive signal is that the USA tax policy changes that would probable boost the recovery of global economy. Particular on Spain we all see the carelessness of official government. I would put negative estimate on Spain among others UN countries. But according to the European Commission, the Spanish economy will subsequently slow down its pace, falling to 2.1% in 2019 from 2.6% in 2018 (these figures are in line with official Spain government). This is too optimistic. They have nothing to do with high rates of unemployment (c.18-20% of labor force) and high level of debt (up to 100% of its GDP)

[Negative] Teg: United Kingdom

Private consumption slows due to increase of inflation which limits real spending's of households, all investments are depressed by Brexit. Gloomy projections of real GDP growth.

[Negative] Teg: Italy

Italy faces significant challenges this year and the next 2019. In most sources It is cited that Italy is the potential highest risk factor for the whole Eurozone. It is suffering from high level of public debt (140% of GDP as of Jan-2018), thus banking systems of Italy needs to be largely restructured (but impossible under Eurozone rules). Due to fundamental weakness of the economy, we can not expect any improvements in Mid-term horizon. Also, Political risks add more challenges, I mean that the leader of euro-sceptic Italy's Five Star Movement might come to power in May 2018, one of their hot idea is so-called Italexit seems to be likely, I mean the political actions about it, practically not (at the earliest in 2022). Also, as matter of fact at founding of Party in 2009 the party was anti-Vladimir Putin, but it has since become much more pro-Russia. More likely that after election the political process of independence and pro-Russia will be the same as in Greece. Over

[Positive] Teg: Hong Kong

Positive sentiment for helping high-tech businesses in Hong Kong - a promise given by Hong Kong's chief executive, Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor to reduce the profit tax on companies and grand tax remissions for their investments in R&D (research and development). This doubtless would attract existing business to invest more in qualifying research and development as well as would attract new investments from abroad to establish new technical divisions in Hong Kong

[Positive] Teg: Canada

European import is the main driver for the economy of Canada. As per official sources of EU officers they are not expect any increase of imports of goods. In contrary China and US market's tend to increase import from Canadian business. Thus, I put moderate increase in GDP for the next 2 years

[Negative] Teg: Australia

I scrutinizes over economist's outlook for the Australian economy in 2018, they are cautiously optimistic, driven largely by improving global conditions but I doubt that such a global conditions will improve. Indeed, do not see the solid reasons for it. Thus, I would put a negative tax on GDP. Also, not to forget the adverse statistic for household consumption in Australia which adds more uncertainty on it. I may refresh your memory - Australia has one of the highest debt-to-GDP ratios for houseless in the world. A little and sudden interest increase will lead to problems on debt servicing for households followed by well-known problems for economic growth

[Neutral] Teg: Australia

All I know good news for export sector that is they are investing in new LNG (liquefied natural gas) capacity to carry it to China.

[Positive] Teg: Germany

In most cases (I mean when reading articles written by analysts) the outlook for German economy is promising. They are assumed to implement the policy of wages increase, infrastructure projects. These would boost an inflation (what we know is not bad but indeed positive when it is moderate). The political elite I think must reduce the power of sanction against Russia, I calculated that Germany may easy earn min. 25-30 bn euro. Of course this lies on political grounds and indeterminable in mid-term future.

[Positive] Teg: United States

Only positive signal is that the USA tax policy changes (I mean corporate tax increase) that would probable boost the recovery of economy - positive impact. Unemployment rate is low and continues to be at its natural level (4-5%). According to the key economic indicators the outlook for the US economy is healthy. I would suggest the estimation of real GDP to be within 2-3% for 2018-2020. Nonetheless President Trump promised to increase growth to 4 per cent, let's see.

[Neutral] Teg: Canada

Economic growth rate I expect to slow in the next two years as household consumption and government spending slows. Recent developments in consumption has not been transferred to the increase in wages and I think that house prices will continues to slow, no considerable job growth (if any at all). They also did not announced any substantial government investments. Thus, I project the growth of Canadian economy to ease

[Neutral] Teg: Japan

In Japan, growth trend is set to be maintained in 2018, but weaken thereafter as fiscal policy will benefit from planned consumption tax increase. I revised the growth less than 1% for the next years. As I think there is only one possibility to climb at 1% on even more is the expected growth of Global Demand, obviously from Main 3 (USA, China, EU). As per the USA and China - new incentives over softening of tax burdens on corporates - expected to be aggressive using Trump's words. Thus, import is the main driver for the economy of Japan. As It is easy to overestimate the influence of imports, I would tag neutral on the economy of Japan.

[Negative] Teg: United States

Trump administration and al around political situation add more uncertainly of the opportunity of return rate on investment, that would surely restrain new investors to spend. Also, we need to particularly emphasis the movements of the USA government toward trade protectionism (e.g. 25% import duty on series of china products). This brings us more economic risk in the USA due to the answer from China in trade wars game. The next step from the USA I would expect (a) restrains in foreign investments from China into the USA and (b) defense of intellectual property (copyrights) of US companies (we know how Chinese producers have been copying western brands). All these put more pressure on economic outlook. But I would expect the real GDP growth would be limited by c2% for the next two years

[Positive] Teg: Switzerland

I would suggest that in conformity with the manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Manager Index) which is at its highest since July 2010 and the services PMI also stands at very high levels. These leading factors give us positive signals for the economy of Switzerland in 2018-2019. Switzerland increases its export compared to others European countries. Internal consumption is expanding faster nowadays that in 2017 due to the decrease of unemployment rate and rising real wages. Thus, I think that real GDP of Swiss would show minimum 2% of growth in 2018

[Positive] Teg: Hong Kong

As per the local new incentives over tax in China and in the US are announced (I mean the softening of tax burdens on corporates) this we may reckon as a positive signal for HK outlook. As well, more finance analyst in Hong Kong are confident and optimistic about HK this year and the next 2019. As you understand Hong Kong is likely to catch up this positive effect (the recovery of the US and mainland China) for the simple reason that Hong Kong plays its role as international financial center - at lease one of the biggest.

[Positive] Teg: France

I guess that economic growth of France has remained solid. The government plans: (a) to decrease the share of government spending by 3 p.p. (in terms of GDP) over the next 2 years (2018-2019), incl. cutbacks in subsidised jobs and housing subsidies, (b) to reduce corporate income tax from 33% to 25%, (c) to cut in capital income, wealth and taxes on property.

[Negative] Teg: United Kingdom

I would suggest that all situation over Skripal Case was done by internal forces of Great Britain itself, by the community against Teresa Mai. I believe that they just set her up (to make her as a scapegoat). This is the easiest way and method for internal political struggle. Well, this in coupe with high level of debt against European Union due to Brexit leaves us with no driver for growth in economy of Great Britain. At least, very modest opportunities.

[Negative] Teg: Switzerland

The economy of Switzerland is standing still. I can not find any measurable drivers for upturn more that 1% GDP growth pre annum. Moreover, uncertainty over possible changes in income tax for firms provides some risk. Analysts estimates as 50-50 that the government would increase corporate taxes to cover as more as possible the debt level

[Negative] Teg: Germany

I guess that aging society of German is the main challenge for its economy. In the logic the government should accelerate special education for immigrants in order to promote solid economic growth. But of course this is very sensible thing which may be in the agenda in minimum 5 years.