| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus (median) | 6.5 | 7.1 | 7.2 |
| High estimate | 8.1 | 8.2 | 7.6 |
| Low estimate | 5.8 | 6 | 6.3 |
| Standard Deviation | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.5 |
| Count of Estimates | 22 | 13 | 5 |
History
Forecast
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Global View
- World. Geographical
- Africa
- Asia
- Central America
- Eastern Europe
- Middle East
- North America
- South America (Latam)
- Western Europe
- World. Economic
- BRIC
- Developed
- Emerging
- G10
- G20
- MENA
- MIST
- N11
- OPEC
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Global View
I expect that Yuan will be weaker on the back of narrowing interest rate between US and China (as a result of US rates increasing) and recent cut of RRR (reserve requirement ratios) by People's Bank of China.
My confidence in CNY built on China's sustainable economy (with stable growth at 6.5%), which supported by (1) recovery of global economy and China's export growth, (2) permanent increase in consumption in the country, (3) stable growth of foreign direct investment, etc. Also the People's Bank of China gradually relaxes its monetary policy tools, for which cause exchange rate formation mechanism transfers from crisis management to normal conditions. Other ways of saying, PBoC by weakening control allows the market to play a more important role, which will have a positive impact on RMB's value.