British Pound | GBP to USD last = 0.767 1w: +0.006 (0.7%)
Consensus (median)0.730.70.70.7
High estimate0.950.970.790.79
Low estimate0.630.590.610.58
Standard Deviation0.
Count of Estimates56422314

We saw a sharp drop in the value of GBP after the Brexit vote, which was subsequently resulted in the GBP constant dependence on the Brexit news flow and increasing in volatility and uncertainty about future value of the British pound. I expect continued GBP volatility and its weakening vs USD till 2020 against the backdrop of the Brexit negotiations and political instability. Also it's a big question for me - what will be the new UK-EU trade relationship after Brexit?


I have a bearish expectations about GBP. The main risk is the Brexit-related uncertainty, which could weaken in future GBP. As negotiations are in progress, it becomes clear just how differing points of view the UK and the EU really have. Also markets are largely pricing in a Bank of England rate hike in near term, but the timing and pace of BoE rate hikes is partly driven by the outlook for the Brexit negotiations. Depending on how those negotiations progress, the BoE could quickly change tack.