Russian Ruble | RUB to USD last = 65.45 1w: -0.1 (-0.2%)
20182019202020212022
Consensus (median)6161626564
High estimate68959810072
Low estimate5250464063
Standard Deviation3710144
Count of Estimates383117123
[Positive]

The economy of Russia relies heavily on global commodity prices, because oil and gas exports account for approximately two-thirds of the country's overall export revenue and one-third of GDP. Therefore we should consider Russian Ruble in line with the oil prices. Anyway I have bullish view on global oil prices, so I bet on further appreciation of RUB against USD. Also I would like to mention, that, in my view, the Russian economy has built up a tolerance to the Western sanctions and new sanctions will not be so painful for the RUB as primary.

[Negative]

I assume that Russian ruble will show long-term downward tendency due to expected growth of US rates and, on the other side, Russian Central Bank policy for gradual declining of base rate. Unfavorable political situation and US sanction will also lead to rubble depreciation. In the same time, I think that Central Bank and Government will try to benefit from weak rubble as it will support economy growth.

[Negative]

I don't believe in strong RUB, taking into account the constant possibility of new sanctions against Russia and heavy reliance on oil, which best times at the prices of $80-100/bbl are already in the past. There were no intrigues at the presidential elections and Putin secured a fourth term, so I don't expect any structural and productivity-enhancing reforms. Also it's possible that in the mid-term the Central Bank of Russia will drive down the RUB to cover budget deficit.