Brazil Real | BRL to USD last = 3.821 1w: -0.04 (-1.2%)
2019202020212022
Consensus (median)3.73.73.93.8
High estimate4.64.64.74.3
Low estimate2.92.93.13.2
Standard Deviation0.40.40.50.4
Count of Estimates3223126
History
Forecast
[Positive]

I think that Brazil, as a diversified commodities exporter, in future will have the advantage from rising commodity prices. As we can see, increase in commodity prices and soft domestic demand did its work and reduced current account deficit to 0.5% of GDP for 2017 from as high as 4.2% in 2014. A continued commodity rally could make the BRL great again, as in 2005-2008.

[Negative]

I think that the main risk for the Brazil Real is current uncertainty about presidential elections. The result of the presidential run could turn to any directions, so we need to be prepared for riots, protests and strikes. The political risk would cause a reduction in foreign direct investment and loss of asset managers' trust in Brazil Real's fair value. So I have a negative outlook for BRL.