Indonesian Rupiah | IDR to USD last = 13695 1w: +2 (0.01%)
202120222023
Consensus (median)145001410013850
High estimate168001570015300
Low estimate115001280013000
Standard Deviation1335920846
Count of Estimates1794
History
Forecast
Forecast Summary
RankN/S0*1*2*3*4*5*
Strong Weak       
Weakening       
Flat       
Strengthening       
Strong Stren.       
Forecast Distribution
Company plot
[Positive]

Taking into account the 'Investment grade' rating from all three major global credit-rating agencies (for the first time since 1997), I expect that investor sentiment towards Indonesia will gradually improve. Therefore the risk associated with the Indonesian assets by foreign investors will reduce, and thus will provide a new source of support for the IDR.

[Negative]

I expect the IDR to depreciate vs USD in 2018-2020, due to a gradual rise in the current-account deficit against the backdrop of higher oil prices. In addition I'm skeptical about the administration's ability to remove long standing protectionist rules governing trade and foreign investment, which will continue to damage the economy's competitiveness.