Indian Rupee | INR to USD last = 71.561 1w: +0.2 (0.3%)
Consensus (median)706967
High estimate778081
Low estimate636361
Standard Deviation568
Count of Estimates1574
Forecast Summary
Strong Weak       
Strong Stren.       
Forecast Distribution
Company plot

I don't bet on INR appreciation against USD, due to India's permanent dual deficits on the fiscal and current accounts which will make negative impact on the investors' appetite. Outflows from domestic markets will pose a threat to domestic macro factors and economic stability of the country. Also I think that bullish trend of the oil prices and continued global trade friction will add pressure on the Indian rupee's value.


Over the last 3 years we see a significant reduction in real GDP and capital investment growth, due to demonetization scheme and the goods and services tax. This reduction in capital infusion is a brake on India's long-term economic growth. In April-May 2019 attention will be focused on Indian general election. And it's logical to expect further pro-growth fiscal measures, taking into account weak credit growth and higher energy prices. But I think there wouldn't be any structural reforms and we will see weak INR/USD.