Australian Dollar | USD to AUD last = 0.711 1w: +0.003 (0.5%)
Consensus (median)0.750.780.790.78
High estimate0.90.920.930.92
Low estimate0.670.650.690.68
Standard Deviation0.
Count of Estimates51382011

AUD is more often viewed by global financial markets as a proxy for the performance of China's economy, which growth will slow in 2018 against the backdrop of the trade war with US. This will provide support for the Australian Dollar and we will see its strengthening against USD in the short-term. However, reduction in global commodity prices and my expectations that Federal Reserve will hike interest rates multiple times in 2019, will weaken AUD vs USD. So I'm bearish on AUD.


Over the next 2-3 years I expect that the strong global growth, resilient global trade growth and infrastructure investment will support base metals' prices. Therefore, as a commodities exporter, Australia will have benefit from the rally in base metals. Taking into account Australia's GDP growth, improvements in the local labour market and probability, that RBA normalizes base rate (inflation is slightly below 2%, but RBA's rate = 1,5%), I bet on strengthening of AUD against USD.