Vietnam (Real GDP, yoy %)
2021
Consensus (median)6.5
High estimate6.5
Low estimate6.5
Standard Deviation0
Count of Estimates1
History
Forecast
Forecast Summary
RankN/S0*1*2*3*4*5*
Strong Gr.       
Growth       
Flat       
Decline       
Strong Decl.       
Forecast Distribution
Company plot
[Positive]

In near-term perspective, I assume Vietnam will continue to benefit from economy growth driven by export growth, inflows of foreign direct investment and high level of labor force (coupled with low unemployment rate). Real weakening of Vietnam's Dong (due to lower nominal rate and lower inflation) is additional support for export growth. Nevertheless, I assume that there are risks that worth to be noted: 1) Export: (a) low diversification (20% of all Vietnam's export is Samsung's Vietnam-based manufacturing plants), (b) threat of protectionism and declining of global trade. 2) Public debt rapid growth (~65% of GDP). Planned measures to lower the growth rate of public debt will lead to lower lower government spending (particularly, on infrastructure projects). 3) Private debt rapid growth. In long-term perspectives there is a risk of worsening situation in banking system (current level of bad debts ~5%). 4) Demographic: rapidly aging population (therefore, there is a need to implement a long-term program for productivity increasing)