United Kingdom (Real GDP, yoy %)
2018201920202021
Consensus (median)1.41.51.61.3
High estimate2.222.11.6
Low estimate-0.10.5-1.91
Standard Deviation0.310.320.710.3
Count of Estimates9375312
[Negative]

I think that the negative merchandise trade balance will remain the current account in deficit over 2018-2022, offsetting surpluses on the services account. More importantly I expect that UK economy will slowing down its growth since 2021 against the backdrop of the looser trade relations with the EU to mean a larger goods trade deficit and a smaller services surplus. Also I don't believe that UK's policymakers will be able to implement structural reforms in the near-term that have crippled the economy in recent years, including weak productivity growth, ineffective innovation and poor infrastructure. So my outlook on British economy is negative.

[Negative]

After Brexit referendum in 2016 UK economy growth rate is constantly decreasing (2015 = 2.3%, 2016 = 1.9%, 2017 = 1.8%). And I assume that full negative effect from both Brexit and entrenched UK economy problems will be felt by UK only in 2019 (planned exit from the EU is March 2019). 1) Productivity problem. During last decade UK's productivity growth is constantly slowing down. As a result, Office for Budget Responsibility's long-term productivity forecast was halved down to 1.2%. 2) Higher inflation due to weaker sterling and, thus, weaker consumer spending power due to Brexit. I assume that weaker consumer spending power is the major cause of slower UK economy growth. One should note that this negative effect is partially offset by industrial production and export growth on the back of weak sterling and global growth. However, I believe that this positive offset will be quite limited as real investments will decline due to political uncertainty. Additional consequence of this factor is accelerating (double-digit) growth in unsecured lending (however, current level of consumer debt to GDP is still below pre-crisis level). 3) UK/EU deal uncertainty. UK wants to maintain a special trading relationship with the EU after leaving EU, but EU, obviously, does not want to give UK such benefits. I assume that negative outcome for UK is quite probable. As a result, additional slowing of UK economy in 2019 is highly likely

[Negative]

Private consumption slows due to increase of inflation which limits real spending's of households, all investments are depressed by Brexit. Gloomy projections of real GDP growth.

[Negative]

I would suggest that all situation over Skripal Case was done by internal forces of Great Britain itself, by the community against Teresa Mai. I believe that they just set her up (to make her as a scapegoat). This is the easiest way and method for internal political struggle. Well, this in coupe with high level of debt against European Union due to Brexit leaves us with no driver for growth in economy of Great Britain. At least, very modest opportunities.