Switzerland (Real GDP, yoy %)
2018201920202021
Consensus (median)2.11.81.71.7
High estimate2.42.93.21.7
Low estimate0.610.91.7
Standard Deviation0.390.30.490
Count of Estimates4941181
[Positive]

I think that Switzerland's economy will further benefit from export growth and higher domestic demand. Due to global growth and weak CHF, export growth perspectives are favorable (especially in pharmaceutical industry). That growth supports recovery in industrial activity (PMI is at its highest since 2010), unemployment reduction and growth in real investments from business (as utilized capacity ~80%). However, there is one weak side of Switzerland's economy that I want to mention. Previously, real estate boom was one of the key factors for economy growth. As a result of this boom, one might see that real estate market is imbalanced: declining demand (high household debt, tighter conditions on mortgages), increasing oversupply

[Negative]

Interest rates in the country are -0.75%, holding cash in bank cost people money. They need to reconsider monetary and fiscal policy to boost growth. Negative rates are widely criticized, I also would argue on the efficiency of such a policy

[Positive]

I would suggest that in conformity with the manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Manager Index) which is at its highest since July 2010 and the services PMI also stands at very high levels. These leading factors give us positive signals for the economy of Switzerland in 2018-2019. Switzerland increases its export compared to others European countries. Internal consumption is expanding faster nowadays that in 2017 due to the decrease of unemployment rate and rising real wages. Thus, I think that real GDP of Swiss would show minimum 2% of growth in 2018

[Negative]

The economy of Switzerland is standing still. I can not find any measurable drivers for upturn more that 1% GDP growth pre annum. Moreover, uncertainty over possible changes in income tax for firms provides some risk. Analysts estimates as 50-50 that the government would increase corporate taxes to cover as more as possible the debt level