South Korea (Real GDP, yoy %)
201920202021
Consensus (median)2.62.62.8
High estimate3.64.22.8
Low estimate22.32.8
Standard Deviation0.20.40
Count of Estimates42281
[Positive]

In the near-term, I assume that Korean economy will be able to show relatively high growth rate (~3% in 2018-19) as a result of export growth (especially, in semiconductor industry) and fiscal stimulus (through government expenses increasing). In the long term, economic outlook is hazy as it relies on the possibility to solve fundamental economic problems (high level of unemployment, population ageing, high power of large enterprises called chaebol and low level of competitiveness), as well as on external political factors (negative - USA might withdraw from free-trade agreement, positive - possible recovery of relationship with North Korea).