Saudi Arabia (Real GDP, yoy %)
201920202021
Consensus (median)2.32.32.1
High estimate3.43.62.1
Low estimate11.72.1
Standard Deviation0.60.60
Count of Estimates20101
[Neutral]

I expect that Saudi Arabian economy growth will accelerate on the back of higher oil price (thus, higher domestic demand) and higher oil production. Despite these results, risks remain high due to low economy diversification. That is why long-term stability of growth is rely on implemented National Transformation Program, and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salmana shows strong signal to investors longer-term commitment to continue the reforms. However, the question is about money for these reforms as budget deficit increasing. Additional factor that makes matters worse is increasing poverty level and, thus, increasing social unrest.

[Positive]

The economy is expected to benefit this 2018 year from higher oil prices reflecting the success of cuts by OPEC and allies and strong as expected global growth compared to 2017. This additional revenue will help to boost internal consumption which constitute around the half of SA GDP. I would suggest a gradual growth in GDP from 2.2% in 2018 up to 2.5% in 2021. Also, the government announced privatization of Saudi Aramco and some others assets, this should attract more foreign investors to Saudi Arabia. If it happens it would be the greatest oil stock IPO with the total value of more than 1.5 trillions of dolor (I am measuring by Price-to-Reserves multiple). How many shares the Government would offer we do not know but it is rationale around 5%-10% in IPO, which would result in 75-150 billion of dollars. This is a good sign for investors and opportunities that Saudi Arabia offers if they would not postpone privatization as it was...

[Positive]

The economy of Saudi Arabia is primary linked to oil price. For the next 2-3 years most analyst bet on steady growth in oil price, thus, It is likely to forecast economic growth. You know, that the government recently announced that it expects 2.7% GDP real growth rate. On this estimate I would doubt. Last year the government struggled against low oil market by spending cuts in order to lower budget deficit. Now the government plans to raise internal consumer spending by extra payment for government workers and the introduction of value-added taxation (VAT) reform. These all may strive GDP up to 2.0% - 2.1% growth maximum (as per the expectation of barrel of oil at $70).