India (Real GDP, yoy %)
2018201920202021
Consensus (median)6.77.47.67.8
High estimate8.4911.78.1
Low estimate5.25.477.7
Standard Deviation0.50.50.80.1
Count of Estimates5544284
[Positive]

I think that further economic growth in India, with an average annual GDP growth of 7.6% in 2018-2023, will be supported by strong increases in private consumption and accelerating gross fixed investment. However, this will depend on progress in recapitalizing the banking sector, because a lack of broader reforms in the sector will continue to place constraints on lending activity. Also I see positive impact for the investor sentiment in government measures for improving the business environment, such as tax reforms and the increased digitalization of government-to-business services. However, India's trade deficit will remain high in 2018-2022, due to price of crude oil, which is India's largest import item in value terms. Exports will increase, but the rate of growth will be incommensurable in comparison with imports growth.

[Negative]

India's outlook is more positive as many investors and agencies think, but such a positive factors are something like promises of the government's projection. I am very skeptical on this. Around 40% of industrial facilities face with low capacity utilization rate, infrastructure is poor in comparison to China, many banks have on its balance a lot of non-performing assets wherethrough invested a lot into non-perspective sectors. Well, high-loaded investments in infrastructure is very critical for economy growth in India. But nowadays there is no any measurable action on it. Thus, I would suggest rather faded prospects for 2018-2019, but brighter right after 2019

[Positive]

In most analysts report the outlook for India is largely positive notwithstanding the fact of its slowdown in 2017. Such a growth 7.3%-7.5% for the next two years 2018-2019 adds economy of India as a fastest growing emerging market in Asia and in the world. I would quote factors from UN report: positive forecast is supported by robust private consumption and public investment as well as ongoing structural reforms. Indian government plans to improve Goods and Service Tax as well as Bankruptcy Code which will lead to more efficient trend of growth in Long-run. Once the government of India continues to carry out structural reforms, prudent macro policies and redistribute towards infrastructural project - we may really bet a lot into India's outlook - merely 8% per year in GDP terms.