France (Real GDP, yoy %)
201920202021
Consensus (median)1.81.651.7
High estimate2.83.31.7
Low estimate1.20.81.7
Standard Deviation0.30.460
Count of Estimates60181
[Positive]

France's recovery from its economic downfall in 2012 has been slow in comparison with the most of its European peers. However, according to the results of 2017 (GDP growth = 1.9%) the economic growth has showed the strongest growth since 2011. Taking into account the continued cyclical upturn in the euro zone and increasing of domestic demand, I expect annual growth to average 1.7% in 2019-2022. Also the main challenges for Macron's policy are to reduce the high rate of unemployment (especially among young people), increase competitive advantage, promote the economic growth, improve foreign investors' views about the French labor market, as well as develop the public finances. I believe in Macron's ability to achieve these goals, therefore I expect the reforms will start to gain traction towards the end of 2022.

[Negative]

The government of France recently announced to raise energy and tobacco taxes pursuing to make growth reliing on green sectors and enhance the healthcare. The vogue for electric-car are growing fast. The fiscal stance is projected to be largely neutral over the projection horizon

[Positive]

I guess that economic growth of France has remained solid. The government plans: (a) to decrease the share of government spending by 3 p.p. (in terms of GDP) over the next 2 years (2018-2019), incl. cutbacks in subsidised jobs and housing subsidies, (b) to reduce corporate income tax from 33% to 25%, (c) to cut in capital income, wealth and taxes on property.