I have positive outlook for the Norilsk Nickel's shares, due to the Company's status of the world's largest producer of nickel and palladium, continued recovery in metal prices (nickel, copper, PGM), , as well as Norilsk Nickel's negative nickel unit costs and the world's lowest cost nickel production. That's why I strongly recommend to buy the Company's shares.
The information that UC Rusal won the case against Interros in the London High Court, which confirmed that Roman Abramovich doesn't have the right to sell the stake in Norilsk Nickel, is positive for the Company's shares value. In my view this fact means that shareholder agreement and dividend policy will remain unchanged at least till December 2022 and Norilsk Nickel will continue to be one of the most attractive dividend stories in the industry.
In spite of Norilsk Nickel's improving earnings and cash generation profile, I expect reduction in Company's dividend payouts, due to significant CAPEX program planned for the midterm. Also I think that uncertainty surrounding the currently ongoing major shareholders' conflict and a potential 'Shoot Out', as well as related corporate governance risks would continue to pressure share price performance. Therefore I have negative outlook for the Norilsk Nickel's shares.