Exxon Mobil Corp last = 78 USD 1w: +2.3 (3.1%)
% vs. spot / Price1M6M12MLT(2Y)LT(3Y)
Target Price (consensus)1.7%5.2%---
Upside (Bull Case)2.1%6.2%---
Downside (Bear Case)-1.3%-3.9%---

I perceive Exxon Mobil as a defensive security due to (1) top-tier FCF/dividend coverage ratio, (2) below-average financial leverage (as a result of its integrated model that delivers strong FCF from its refining and chemicals businesses). Upside: (1) improved Upstream production, (2) potential acquisitions to add inorganic reserves.


Taking into account target CAPEX, I believe that XOM could maintain: (1) production level >4Mboed (at least before 2020), (2) strong balance sheet, (3) dividend yield > 4%. My major concern: if it is sufficient organic CAPEX for maintaining production after 2020.