| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus (median) | 74 | 57 | 70 | 76 |
| High | 90 | 88 | 88 | 76 |
| Low | 44 | 44 | 45 | 76 |
| Standard Deviation | 15 | 18 | 18 | 0 |
| Count of Estimates | 9 | 6 | 4 | 1 |
History
Forecast
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Global View
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Global View
I think that thermal coal is strongest short call, I call for prices to fall from current levels by ~25-30%, down to ~75 $/t FOB Australia. The recent rally was mainly trader-driven. At the moment Chinese government is tolerance of higher prices, but I believe that such situation is temporary. In the medium term, however, prices will be traded in 65-75 $/t range due to Chinese measures to constrain supply. In the long-term, I am bearish as we will see multiple waves of LNG supply from the US.