Coal CIF ARA prices, $/mt last = 85 1w: -3.6 (-4.1%)
20182019202020212022
Consensus (median)7074577076
High8990888876
Low4344444576
Standard Deviation161518180
Count of Estimates99641
[Negative]

I think that thermal coal is strongest short call, I call for prices to fall from current levels by ~25-30%, down to ~75 $/t FOB Australia. The recent rally was mainly trader-driven. At the moment Chinese government is tolerance of higher prices, but I believe that such situation is temporary. In the medium term, however, prices will be traded in 65-75 $/t range due to Chinese measures to constrain supply. In the long-term, I am bearish as we will see multiple waves of LNG supply from the US.