| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus (median) | 3 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 3.2 |
| High | 3.6 | 3.7 | 6 | 4.2 | 3.3 |
| Low | 2.7 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 2.9 |
| Standard Deviation | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| Count of Estimates | 33 | 27 | 20 | 14 | 7 |
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Global View
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Global View
My view on gas market in USA is moderate. After the late December freeze gas inventories significantly decreased below normal level (-18% below 5yr average level). But this effect is short-term and is to be compensated by strong growth in the rig count (+40% in 2017) as well as incremental takeaway in Marcellus (note - area of shale gas in the Eastern Region of USA). In Middle and Long term we might see bullish periods, however it is unlikely that natural gas will become a bullish commodity in general.