Iron Ore Fines prices, 62% Fe, $/mt last = 162.38 1w: +0.05 (0.03%)
20212022
Consensus (median)5960
High7064
Low5044
Standard Deviation69
Count of Estimates93
History
Forecast
CARG Summary (Price)
RankN/S0*1*2*3*4*5*
Strong Gr.       
Growth       
Flat       
Decline       
Strong Decl.       
Forecast Distribution
Company plot
[Negative]

I expect that already in 2018 prices will drop from current highs ($70-80/t) to $50-55/t. That will happen despite government-led clampdown on small, private and high-cost iron ore mines in China. Supply increasing in India, Iran, Latin America, Africa, Australia and Brazil will lead market to surplus. I flag that more than half of this surplus is linked to additional supply from Vale (29Mt) and Samarco (9Mt)