I expect that already in 2018 prices will drop from current highs ($70-80/t) to $50-55/t. That will happen despite government-led clampdown on small, private and high-cost iron ore mines in China. Supply increasing in India, Iran, Latin America, Africa, Australia and Brazil will lead market to surplus. I flag that more than half of this surplus is linked to additional supply from Vale (29Mt) and Samarco (9Mt)