| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus (median) | 58 | 60 | 59 | 60 |
| High | 70 | 80 | 70 | 64 |
| Low | 45 | 51 | 50 | 44 |
| Standard Deviation | 6 | 8 | 6 | 9 |
| Count of Estimates | 17 | 14 | 9 | 3 |
History
Forecast
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Global View
- World. Geographical
- Africa
- Asia
- Central America
- Eastern Europe
- Middle East
- North America
- South America (Latam)
- Western Europe
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Global View
I expect that already in 2018 prices will drop from current highs ($70-80/t) to $50-55/t. That will happen despite government-led clampdown on small, private and high-cost iron ore mines in China. Supply increasing in India, Iran, Latin America, Africa, Australia and Brazil will lead market to surplus. I flag that more than half of this surplus is linked to additional supply from Vale (29Mt) and Samarco (9Mt)