Iron Ore Fines prices, 62% Fe, $/mt last = 86.19 1w: +2.5 (2.9%)
2019202020212022
Consensus (median)58605960
High70807064
Low45515044
Standard Deviation6869
Count of Estimates171493
History
Forecast
[Negative]

I expect that already in 2018 prices will drop from current highs ($70-80/t) to $50-55/t. That will happen despite government-led clampdown on small, private and high-cost iron ore mines in China. Supply increasing in India, Iran, Latin America, Africa, Australia and Brazil will lead market to surplus. I flag that more than half of this surplus is linked to additional supply from Vale (29Mt) and Samarco (9Mt)