Iron Ore Fines prices, 62% Fe, $/mt last = 64.71 1w: -0.3 (-0.4%)
20182019202020212022
Consensus (median)6558605960
High8770807064
Low3545515044
Standard Deviation116869
Count of Estimates23171493
[Negative]

I expect that already in 2018 prices will drop from current highs ($70-80/t) to $50-55/t. That will happen despite government-led clampdown on small, private and high-cost iron ore mines in China. Supply increasing in India, Iran, Latin America, Africa, Australia and Brazil will lead market to surplus. I flag that more than half of this surplus is linked to additional supply from Vale (29Mt) and Samarco (9Mt)