Tin prices, $/mt last = 18865 1w: +340 (1.8%)
20182019202020212022
Consensus (median)2100021450220002220022250
High2250025000260002280023000
Low1960019400192001900019500
Standard Deviation7871306169813051346
Count of Estimates151414104
[Neutral]

I do not have any strong views on tin. Broad-based rally across commodities over the last years was only echoed by tin. Warehouse inventories remain high (LME warehouse have declined, SHFE warehouse have risen). Despite deficit in 2017, I am expecting balanced market in 2018 and surplus in 2019+. Main reasons are (1) metal output growing due to higher prices, (2) import increasing of tin ore and concentrates from Myanmar and Indonesia, (3) demand declining as semiconductor shipment growth rate will begin to stabilize