| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus (median) | 21000 | 21450 | 22000 | 22200 | 22250 |
| High | 22500 | 25000 | 26000 | 22800 | 23000 |
| Low | 19600 | 19400 | 19200 | 19000 | 19500 |
| Standard Deviation | 787 | 1306 | 1698 | 1305 | 1346 |
| Count of Estimates | 15 | 14 | 14 | 10 | 4 |
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Global View
- World. Geographical
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Global View
I do not have any strong views on tin. Broad-based rally across commodities over the last years was only echoed by tin. Warehouse inventories remain high (LME warehouse have declined, SHFE warehouse have risen). Despite deficit in 2017, I am expecting balanced market in 2018 and surplus in 2019+. Main reasons are (1) metal output growing due to higher prices, (2) import increasing of tin ore and concentrates from Myanmar and Indonesia, (3) demand declining as semiconductor shipment growth rate will begin to stabilize