Zinc prices, $/mt last = 2583 1w: +113 (4.6%)
Consensus (median)31002835279030502750
Standard Deviation390433407369301
Count of Estimates272418114

After mine closures, Zinc prices hit their highs (from ~$1,500/t in 2015 to current ~$3,400/t), competition for concentrate intensifies. I expect that zinc has a little further to run, however already in 1 year market will start to return to balance and price will begin to unwind. On the supply side, we have Gamsberg, Dugald River, and Castellanos coming in over the next 12 months, as well as the specter of possibilities for Glencore to restart its operations. On the demand side, I expect substitution of Zinc by other metals (historically high ratio to aluminum), for example, diecast alloys in many low-end areas are vulnerable to substitution. As a result I expect that there will be a surplus in 2019-2020.