Zinc prices, $/mt last = 2656 1w: +44 (1.7%)
20182019202020212022
Consensus (median)31002835279030502750
High34403800350035303300
Low21002100223023602540
Standard Deviation390433407369301
Count of Estimates272418114
[Positive]

After mine closures, Zinc prices hit their highs (from ~$1,500/t in 2015 to current ~$3,400/t), competition for concentrate intensifies. I expect that zinc has a little further to run, however already in 1 year market will start to return to balance and price will begin to unwind. On the supply side, we have Gamsberg, Dugald River, and Castellanos coming in over the next 12 months, as well as the specter of possibilities for Glencore to restart its operations. On the demand side, I expect substitution of Zinc by other metals (historically high ratio to aluminum), for example, diecast alloys in many low-end areas are vulnerable to substitution. As a result I expect that there will be a surplus in 2019-2020.