I'm bullish on copper over next 2-3 years, given by supply constraint due to under-investment, mines? grade declines and elevated mine strike risks. Also I expect strong demand, which would be supported by traditional consumption and rising adoption of electric vehicles (EV), that will be additional upward factor for the copper prices.
I expect that in ST copper market will be balanced as supply growth will be in line with consumption growth in China. However in LT there is a risk of overestimating demand and I expect that new and expansion projects will lead market to surplus.
I expect that in Mid-term (1-2 years) there will be ongoing correction of copper price from current high due to persistently soft cathode market, well-behaved mines, total absence of copper-related supply-side reform measures in China. As a result, another couple of years of mild oversupply (220-270ktpa of surplus) are expected. However, I expect the global refined market will be already in balance in 2020, and in deficit in 2021/2022+ (insufficient mine project investment together with robust demand - even ahead of meaningful demand changes at the hands of the EV revolution)