Gold prices, $/troy oz. last = 1240.48 1w: +16 (1.3%)
20182019202020212022
Consensus (median)13101300132013401365
High15001680192023001450
Low10801050106011401250
Standard Deviation7512218628072
Count of Estimates343123134
[Positive]

I have seen nothing to alter my conviction that gold is on course to exceed $1,400/oz. The main reasons are the end of US economic outperformance and decreasing of US long-term trend growth-rate, expected dollar weakening as well as political risk factors (an unpopular President unable to match up to his domestic promises and facing complex and potentially unsolvable foreign problems). Fundamentals will also support gold prices: increasing import to China and India, firm Central banks net purchases (mainly due to Russia).

[Negative]

I expect gold prices decreasing due to improving US and global economy. My view is that the dollar will firm up during the current year and that the Fed will raise rates. This should be the main driver behind lower gold prices. On the other hand, I do not expect significant price drop as geopolitical tensions and decreasing of gold production will support gold prices.

[Positive]

I have bearish outlook on USD in the long-term, so I expect the growth of Gold prices in 2018-2019, but this growth will be slow and modest. However global Gold's supply and demand dynamics don't leave so many prospects for a significant price movement and a moderate tightening of the balance unlikely will make positive impact on the prices due to the huge stocks held by investors. That's why I don't believe in bullish trend of the Gold prices in the long-term.