Hard Coking Coal AU prices, $/mt last = 222 1w: +5 (2.3%)
20182019202020212022
Consensus (median)128125120129132
High198165170154139
Low8010093103125
Standard Deviation372122177
Count of Estimates1614962
[Negative]

The met coal market is currently stuck in an unorthodox situation. On the hand, prices prices trading far out of the cost curve (much more so than iron ore prices). On the other hand, hardly any miner would invest in new capacity taking into account high political risks. I assume that Chinese government will continue to maintain met coal market balanced. However even so, I think that we will see a downward trend for Met coal price already in 2018 due to slowing steel demand in China and additional supply from Australia in 2018 comparing to 2017 (recovering from Hurricane Debbie)