Oil NYMEX WTI prices, $/bbl last = 64.75 1w: -2.9 (-4.3%)
Consensus (median)6465666659
Standard Deviation6791111
Count of Estimates433627198

I think that uncertainty around the actual OPEC production growth, current budget constraints and sanction effects could support the high levels of the oil prices in the short-term. However, I don't have positive expectations about further growth of oil prices, due to current higher spot prices could allow for excess cash flow to reinvest in latent production capacity, which will push global production amid mute demand.


I am not expecting drop of oil prices. However significant growth is also questionable due to risks: faster-than-expected ramp in US oil production or an early exit of the OPEC supply cuts


I have positive view on oil price: growing global demand, OPEC-NOPEC deal, US producer discipline. Moreover I believe that OPEC-NOPEC deal is strong enough, and I expect that cuts will be extended through 2018. When cuts are reversed, returning barrels will be easily absorbed by additional demand.