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Global View
Maxim Zinoviev profile
Author status: Employed
Author country: Russia
Author company: Own Research
Job title: Trader
Expert Area: Equity Investments, Economics, Fixed Income
Geografical Area: Asia, Middle East, Western Europe
Economics Area: G10
Country
Russia (Real GDP)
- Russia's economy shows positive signs of recovery and returns to growth. The main engines of this recovery are: (1) improved and stable macroeconomic situation: low inflation, low unemployment rate, higher real wages (and, thus, domestic private demand), lower interest rates, etc., (2) improved business environment (e.g., Ease of doing business index, ranking of Russia: 2014 = 92, 2015 = 62, 2016 = 51, 2017 = 40, 2018 = 35), (3) favorable commodity prices. I assume that near-term risk associated with USA sanctions against Russian companies and USA increased import tariffs for steel and aluminum will not have significant effect for economy growth. However, there are some fundamental issues that could adversely affect Russian economy: (1) Russian banking system problems. Despite Central Bank's attempts to clean banking system, one should note that (a) these activities are rather costly (some estimate ~$40 ban up to now), (b) competitiveness is decreasing (as the share of private banks decreasing), (c) confidence of business in the banking system is low. (2) Decreasing productivity coupled with declining labor force (due to demographic). (3) Traditional dependence of Russian economy from oil and gas (mainly, due to high share of oil and gas income in Budget)
Company
Russia (Real GDP)
- Russia's economy shows positive signs of recovery and returns to growth. The main engines of this recovery are: (1) improved and stable macroeconomic situation: low inflation, low unemployment rate, higher real wages (and, thus, domestic private demand), lower interest rates, etc., (2) improved business environment (e.g., Ease of doing business index, ranking of Russia: 2014 = 92, 2015 = 62, 2016 = 51, 2017 = 40, 2018 = 35), (3) favorable commodity prices. I assume that near-term risk associated with USA sanctions against Russian companies and USA increased import tariffs for steel and aluminum will not have significant effect for economy growth. However, there are some fundamental issues that could adversely affect Russian economy: (1) Russian banking system problems. Despite Central Bank's attempts to clean banking system, one should note that (a) these activities are rather costly (some estimate ~$40 ban up to now), (b) competitiveness is decreasing (as the share of private banks decreasing), (c) confidence of business in the banking system is low. (2) Decreasing productivity coupled with declining labor force (due to demographic). (3) Traditional dependence of Russian economy from oil and gas (mainly, due to high share of oil and gas income in Budget)
Tata Motors Ltd
- Russia's economy shows positive signs of recovery and returns to growth. The main engines of this recovery are: (1) improved and stable macroeconomic situation: low inflation, low unemployment rate, higher real wages (and, thus, domestic private demand), lower interest rates, etc., (2) improved business environment (e.g., Ease of doing business index, ranking of Russia: 2014 = 92, 2015 = 62, 2016 = 51, 2017 = 40, 2018 = 35), (3) favorable commodity prices. I assume that near-term risk associated with USA sanctions against Russian companies and USA increased import tariffs for steel and aluminum will not have significant effect for economy growth. However, there are some fundamental issues that could adversely affect Russian economy: (1) Russian banking system problems. Despite Central Bank's attempts to clean banking system, one should note that (a) these activities are rather costly (some estimate ~$40 ban up to now), (b) competitiveness is decreasing (as the share of private banks decreasing), (c) confidence of business in the banking system is low. (2) Decreasing productivity coupled with declining labor force (due to demographic). (3) Traditional dependence of Russian economy from oil and gas (mainly, due to high share of oil and gas income in Budget)
- I believe in the Company's plans to increase market share in both passenger car and CV segments, improve its profitability, as well as to become the third largest player in the domestic passenger car market and regain its lost market share in the CV segment. Also I think that the Company's plan for exit out of non-core investments will have positive impact on Tata Motors' performance. So I evaluate the Company's shares as an attractive investment.
ABB Ltd
- Russia's economy shows positive signs of recovery and returns to growth. The main engines of this recovery are: (1) improved and stable macroeconomic situation: low inflation, low unemployment rate, higher real wages (and, thus, domestic private demand), lower interest rates, etc., (2) improved business environment (e.g., Ease of doing business index, ranking of Russia: 2014 = 92, 2015 = 62, 2016 = 51, 2017 = 40, 2018 = 35), (3) favorable commodity prices. I assume that near-term risk associated with USA sanctions against Russian companies and USA increased import tariffs for steel and aluminum will not have significant effect for economy growth. However, there are some fundamental issues that could adversely affect Russian economy: (1) Russian banking system problems. Despite Central Bank's attempts to clean banking system, one should note that (a) these activities are rather costly (some estimate ~$40 ban up to now), (b) competitiveness is decreasing (as the share of private banks decreasing), (c) confidence of business in the banking system is low. (2) Decreasing productivity coupled with declining labor force (due to demographic). (3) Traditional dependence of Russian economy from oil and gas (mainly, due to high share of oil and gas income in Budget)
- I believe in the Company's plans to increase market share in both passenger car and CV segments, improve its profitability, as well as to become the third largest player in the domestic passenger car market and regain its lost market share in the CV segment. Also I think that the Company's plan for exit out of non-core investments will have positive impact on Tata Motors' performance. So I evaluate the Company's shares as an attractive investment.
- Key catalyst for growth is order growth on the back of CAPEX recovery in process industries, particularly, in large orders (>$ 15 mln). Additionally, I believe that ABB is able to improve its industrial productivity and, thus, increase its marginality.
United Company RUSAL Plc
- Russia's economy shows positive signs of recovery and returns to growth. The main engines of this recovery are: (1) improved and stable macroeconomic situation: low inflation, low unemployment rate, higher real wages (and, thus, domestic private demand), lower interest rates, etc., (2) improved business environment (e.g., Ease of doing business index, ranking of Russia: 2014 = 92, 2015 = 62, 2016 = 51, 2017 = 40, 2018 = 35), (3) favorable commodity prices. I assume that near-term risk associated with USA sanctions against Russian companies and USA increased import tariffs for steel and aluminum will not have significant effect for economy growth. However, there are some fundamental issues that could adversely affect Russian economy: (1) Russian banking system problems. Despite Central Bank's attempts to clean banking system, one should note that (a) these activities are rather costly (some estimate ~$40 ban up to now), (b) competitiveness is decreasing (as the share of private banks decreasing), (c) confidence of business in the banking system is low. (2) Decreasing productivity coupled with declining labor force (due to demographic). (3) Traditional dependence of Russian economy from oil and gas (mainly, due to high share of oil and gas income in Budget)
- I believe in the Company's plans to increase market share in both passenger car and CV segments, improve its profitability, as well as to become the third largest player in the domestic passenger car market and regain its lost market share in the CV segment. Also I think that the Company's plan for exit out of non-core investments will have positive impact on Tata Motors' performance. So I evaluate the Company's shares as an attractive investment.
- Key catalyst for growth is order growth on the back of CAPEX recovery in process industries, particularly, in large orders (>$ 15 mln). Additionally, I believe that ABB is able to improve its industrial productivity and, thus, increase its marginality.
- Rusal's inclusion on the new U.S. sanctions list have caused enormous damage to the Company's international operations, as well as financial stability and market confidence, which was reflected in a strong fall in the price of Rusal's shares. I don't believe, that Rusal would be excluded from the sanctions list in the mid-term, so I have negative outlook for the Company's shares.
E-Mart Inc
- Russia's economy shows positive signs of recovery and returns to growth. The main engines of this recovery are: (1) improved and stable macroeconomic situation: low inflation, low unemployment rate, higher real wages (and, thus, domestic private demand), lower interest rates, etc., (2) improved business environment (e.g., Ease of doing business index, ranking of Russia: 2014 = 92, 2015 = 62, 2016 = 51, 2017 = 40, 2018 = 35), (3) favorable commodity prices. I assume that near-term risk associated with USA sanctions against Russian companies and USA increased import tariffs for steel and aluminum will not have significant effect for economy growth. However, there are some fundamental issues that could adversely affect Russian economy: (1) Russian banking system problems. Despite Central Bank's attempts to clean banking system, one should note that (a) these activities are rather costly (some estimate ~$40 ban up to now), (b) competitiveness is decreasing (as the share of private banks decreasing), (c) confidence of business in the banking system is low. (2) Decreasing productivity coupled with declining labor force (due to demographic). (3) Traditional dependence of Russian economy from oil and gas (mainly, due to high share of oil and gas income in Budget)
- I believe in the Company's plans to increase market share in both passenger car and CV segments, improve its profitability, as well as to become the third largest player in the domestic passenger car market and regain its lost market share in the CV segment. Also I think that the Company's plan for exit out of non-core investments will have positive impact on Tata Motors' performance. So I evaluate the Company's shares as an attractive investment.
- Key catalyst for growth is order growth on the back of CAPEX recovery in process industries, particularly, in large orders (>$ 15 mln). Additionally, I believe that ABB is able to improve its industrial productivity and, thus, increase its marginality.
- Rusal's inclusion on the new U.S. sanctions list have caused enormous damage to the Company's international operations, as well as financial stability and market confidence, which was reflected in a strong fall in the price of Rusal's shares. I don't believe, that Rusal would be excluded from the sanctions list in the mid-term, so I have negative outlook for the Company's shares.
- I assume that E-mart will benefit from growing online grocery market, as well as from restructuring of hypermarket business (it is planned to open 6000+ stores by 2020). However, I believe that these positive expectations are mainly priced-in. In the same time, weak hypermarket margins is still the major concern.
Global Ports Investments PLC
- Russia's economy shows positive signs of recovery and returns to growth. The main engines of this recovery are: (1) improved and stable macroeconomic situation: low inflation, low unemployment rate, higher real wages (and, thus, domestic private demand), lower interest rates, etc., (2) improved business environment (e.g., Ease of doing business index, ranking of Russia: 2014 = 92, 2015 = 62, 2016 = 51, 2017 = 40, 2018 = 35), (3) favorable commodity prices. I assume that near-term risk associated with USA sanctions against Russian companies and USA increased import tariffs for steel and aluminum will not have significant effect for economy growth. However, there are some fundamental issues that could adversely affect Russian economy: (1) Russian banking system problems. Despite Central Bank's attempts to clean banking system, one should note that (a) these activities are rather costly (some estimate ~$40 ban up to now), (b) competitiveness is decreasing (as the share of private banks decreasing), (c) confidence of business in the banking system is low. (2) Decreasing productivity coupled with declining labor force (due to demographic). (3) Traditional dependence of Russian economy from oil and gas (mainly, due to high share of oil and gas income in Budget)
- I believe in the Company's plans to increase market share in both passenger car and CV segments, improve its profitability, as well as to become the third largest player in the domestic passenger car market and regain its lost market share in the CV segment. Also I think that the Company's plan for exit out of non-core investments will have positive impact on Tata Motors' performance. So I evaluate the Company's shares as an attractive investment.
- Key catalyst for growth is order growth on the back of CAPEX recovery in process industries, particularly, in large orders (>$ 15 mln). Additionally, I believe that ABB is able to improve its industrial productivity and, thus, increase its marginality.
- Rusal's inclusion on the new U.S. sanctions list have caused enormous damage to the Company's international operations, as well as financial stability and market confidence, which was reflected in a strong fall in the price of Rusal's shares. I don't believe, that Rusal would be excluded from the sanctions list in the mid-term, so I have negative outlook for the Company's shares.
- I assume that E-mart will benefit from growing online grocery market, as well as from restructuring of hypermarket business (it is planned to open 6000+ stores by 2020). However, I believe that these positive expectations are mainly priced-in. In the same time, weak hypermarket margins is still the major concern.
- As a provider of port and harbor services, Global Ports is highly dependent on consumer spending and imports, which is a key driver for container volumes. Taking into account the high level of competition in the industry and uncertainty about the value of RUB vs USD, I have a negative outlook for the Global Ports' shares. As well as the Company has high leverage, which means FCFE yield is likely to remain low and I expect no dividends till 2020.
ArcelorMittal SA
- Russia's economy shows positive signs of recovery and returns to growth. The main engines of this recovery are: (1) improved and stable macroeconomic situation: low inflation, low unemployment rate, higher real wages (and, thus, domestic private demand), lower interest rates, etc., (2) improved business environment (e.g., Ease of doing business index, ranking of Russia: 2014 = 92, 2015 = 62, 2016 = 51, 2017 = 40, 2018 = 35), (3) favorable commodity prices. I assume that near-term risk associated with USA sanctions against Russian companies and USA increased import tariffs for steel and aluminum will not have significant effect for economy growth. However, there are some fundamental issues that could adversely affect Russian economy: (1) Russian banking system problems. Despite Central Bank's attempts to clean banking system, one should note that (a) these activities are rather costly (some estimate ~$40 ban up to now), (b) competitiveness is decreasing (as the share of private banks decreasing), (c) confidence of business in the banking system is low. (2) Decreasing productivity coupled with declining labor force (due to demographic). (3) Traditional dependence of Russian economy from oil and gas (mainly, due to high share of oil and gas income in Budget)
- I believe in the Company's plans to increase market share in both passenger car and CV segments, improve its profitability, as well as to become the third largest player in the domestic passenger car market and regain its lost market share in the CV segment. Also I think that the Company's plan for exit out of non-core investments will have positive impact on Tata Motors' performance. So I evaluate the Company's shares as an attractive investment.
- Key catalyst for growth is order growth on the back of CAPEX recovery in process industries, particularly, in large orders (>$ 15 mln). Additionally, I believe that ABB is able to improve its industrial productivity and, thus, increase its marginality.
- Rusal's inclusion on the new U.S. sanctions list have caused enormous damage to the Company's international operations, as well as financial stability and market confidence, which was reflected in a strong fall in the price of Rusal's shares. I don't believe, that Rusal would be excluded from the sanctions list in the mid-term, so I have negative outlook for the Company's shares.
- I assume that E-mart will benefit from growing online grocery market, as well as from restructuring of hypermarket business (it is planned to open 6000+ stores by 2020). However, I believe that these positive expectations are mainly priced-in. In the same time, weak hypermarket margins is still the major concern.
- As a provider of port and harbor services, Global Ports is highly dependent on consumer spending and imports, which is a key driver for container volumes. Taking into account the high level of competition in the industry and uncertainty about the value of RUB vs USD, I have a negative outlook for the Global Ports' shares. As well as the Company has high leverage, which means FCFE yield is likely to remain low and I expect no dividends till 2020.
- I bet on ArcelorMittal's positive outlook, due to the Company's new capital allocation framework based on further deleveraging, but with a commitment to return a proportion of FCF when net debt reaches $6 bln. In the process of debt reduction, the Company are also going to invest selectively in opportunities that will provide the sustainable value creation. In addition of ArcelorMittal's US exposure, which I expect will make positive impact, I recommend to buy Company's shares.
O2 Czech Republic as
- Russia's economy shows positive signs of recovery and returns to growth. The main engines of this recovery are: (1) improved and stable macroeconomic situation: low inflation, low unemployment rate, higher real wages (and, thus, domestic private demand), lower interest rates, etc., (2) improved business environment (e.g., Ease of doing business index, ranking of Russia: 2014 = 92, 2015 = 62, 2016 = 51, 2017 = 40, 2018 = 35), (3) favorable commodity prices. I assume that near-term risk associated with USA sanctions against Russian companies and USA increased import tariffs for steel and aluminum will not have significant effect for economy growth. However, there are some fundamental issues that could adversely affect Russian economy: (1) Russian banking system problems. Despite Central Bank's attempts to clean banking system, one should note that (a) these activities are rather costly (some estimate ~$40 ban up to now), (b) competitiveness is decreasing (as the share of private banks decreasing), (c) confidence of business in the banking system is low. (2) Decreasing productivity coupled with declining labor force (due to demographic). (3) Traditional dependence of Russian economy from oil and gas (mainly, due to high share of oil and gas income in Budget)
- I believe in the Company's plans to increase market share in both passenger car and CV segments, improve its profitability, as well as to become the third largest player in the domestic passenger car market and regain its lost market share in the CV segment. Also I think that the Company's plan for exit out of non-core investments will have positive impact on Tata Motors' performance. So I evaluate the Company's shares as an attractive investment.
- Key catalyst for growth is order growth on the back of CAPEX recovery in process industries, particularly, in large orders (>$ 15 mln). Additionally, I believe that ABB is able to improve its industrial productivity and, thus, increase its marginality.
- Rusal's inclusion on the new U.S. sanctions list have caused enormous damage to the Company's international operations, as well as financial stability and market confidence, which was reflected in a strong fall in the price of Rusal's shares. I don't believe, that Rusal would be excluded from the sanctions list in the mid-term, so I have negative outlook for the Company's shares.
- I assume that E-mart will benefit from growing online grocery market, as well as from restructuring of hypermarket business (it is planned to open 6000+ stores by 2020). However, I believe that these positive expectations are mainly priced-in. In the same time, weak hypermarket margins is still the major concern.
- As a provider of port and harbor services, Global Ports is highly dependent on consumer spending and imports, which is a key driver for container volumes. Taking into account the high level of competition in the industry and uncertainty about the value of RUB vs USD, I have a negative outlook for the Global Ports' shares. As well as the Company has high leverage, which means FCFE yield is likely to remain low and I expect no dividends till 2020.
- I bet on ArcelorMittal's positive outlook, due to the Company's new capital allocation framework based on further deleveraging, but with a commitment to return a proportion of FCF when net debt reaches $6 bln. In the process of debt reduction, the Company are also going to invest selectively in opportunities that will provide the sustainable value creation. In addition of ArcelorMittal's US exposure, which I expect will make positive impact, I recommend to buy Company's shares.
- O2 Czech Republic is a integrated mobile operator, which offers voice, data and ICT services. The Company's majority shareholder PPF is going to acquire telecommunication assets of Norway-based Telenor in the CEE region and I see indirect positive effect for the O2 CR from this deal. Also the Company pays out dividends regularly, that supports the investment attractiveness of O2 CR's stocks.
Guaranty Trust Bank PLC
- Russia's economy shows positive signs of recovery and returns to growth. The main engines of this recovery are: (1) improved and stable macroeconomic situation: low inflation, low unemployment rate, higher real wages (and, thus, domestic private demand), lower interest rates, etc., (2) improved business environment (e.g., Ease of doing business index, ranking of Russia: 2014 = 92, 2015 = 62, 2016 = 51, 2017 = 40, 2018 = 35), (3) favorable commodity prices. I assume that near-term risk associated with USA sanctions against Russian companies and USA increased import tariffs for steel and aluminum will not have significant effect for economy growth. However, there are some fundamental issues that could adversely affect Russian economy: (1) Russian banking system problems. Despite Central Bank's attempts to clean banking system, one should note that (a) these activities are rather costly (some estimate ~$40 ban up to now), (b) competitiveness is decreasing (as the share of private banks decreasing), (c) confidence of business in the banking system is low. (2) Decreasing productivity coupled with declining labor force (due to demographic). (3) Traditional dependence of Russian economy from oil and gas (mainly, due to high share of oil and gas income in Budget)
- I believe in the Company's plans to increase market share in both passenger car and CV segments, improve its profitability, as well as to become the third largest player in the domestic passenger car market and regain its lost market share in the CV segment. Also I think that the Company's plan for exit out of non-core investments will have positive impact on Tata Motors' performance. So I evaluate the Company's shares as an attractive investment.
- Key catalyst for growth is order growth on the back of CAPEX recovery in process industries, particularly, in large orders (>$ 15 mln). Additionally, I believe that ABB is able to improve its industrial productivity and, thus, increase its marginality.
- Rusal's inclusion on the new U.S. sanctions list have caused enormous damage to the Company's international operations, as well as financial stability and market confidence, which was reflected in a strong fall in the price of Rusal's shares. I don't believe, that Rusal would be excluded from the sanctions list in the mid-term, so I have negative outlook for the Company's shares.
- I assume that E-mart will benefit from growing online grocery market, as well as from restructuring of hypermarket business (it is planned to open 6000+ stores by 2020). However, I believe that these positive expectations are mainly priced-in. In the same time, weak hypermarket margins is still the major concern.
- As a provider of port and harbor services, Global Ports is highly dependent on consumer spending and imports, which is a key driver for container volumes. Taking into account the high level of competition in the industry and uncertainty about the value of RUB vs USD, I have a negative outlook for the Global Ports' shares. As well as the Company has high leverage, which means FCFE yield is likely to remain low and I expect no dividends till 2020.
- I bet on ArcelorMittal's positive outlook, due to the Company's new capital allocation framework based on further deleveraging, but with a commitment to return a proportion of FCF when net debt reaches $6 bln. In the process of debt reduction, the Company are also going to invest selectively in opportunities that will provide the sustainable value creation. In addition of ArcelorMittal's US exposure, which I expect will make positive impact, I recommend to buy Company's shares.
- O2 Czech Republic is a integrated mobile operator, which offers voice, data and ICT services. The Company's majority shareholder PPF is going to acquire telecommunication assets of Norway-based Telenor in the CEE region and I see indirect positive effect for the O2 CR from this deal. Also the Company pays out dividends regularly, that supports the investment attractiveness of O2 CR's stocks.
- I am positive on GTB due to its strong financials. It shows strong interest income growth driven by higher yields on investment securities.
Banco Macro SA
- Russia's economy shows positive signs of recovery and returns to growth. The main engines of this recovery are: (1) improved and stable macroeconomic situation: low inflation, low unemployment rate, higher real wages (and, thus, domestic private demand), lower interest rates, etc., (2) improved business environment (e.g., Ease of doing business index, ranking of Russia: 2014 = 92, 2015 = 62, 2016 = 51, 2017 = 40, 2018 = 35), (3) favorable commodity prices. I assume that near-term risk associated with USA sanctions against Russian companies and USA increased import tariffs for steel and aluminum will not have significant effect for economy growth. However, there are some fundamental issues that could adversely affect Russian economy: (1) Russian banking system problems. Despite Central Bank's attempts to clean banking system, one should note that (a) these activities are rather costly (some estimate ~$40 ban up to now), (b) competitiveness is decreasing (as the share of private banks decreasing), (c) confidence of business in the banking system is low. (2) Decreasing productivity coupled with declining labor force (due to demographic). (3) Traditional dependence of Russian economy from oil and gas (mainly, due to high share of oil and gas income in Budget)
- I believe in the Company's plans to increase market share in both passenger car and CV segments, improve its profitability, as well as to become the third largest player in the domestic passenger car market and regain its lost market share in the CV segment. Also I think that the Company's plan for exit out of non-core investments will have positive impact on Tata Motors' performance. So I evaluate the Company's shares as an attractive investment.
- Key catalyst for growth is order growth on the back of CAPEX recovery in process industries, particularly, in large orders (>$ 15 mln). Additionally, I believe that ABB is able to improve its industrial productivity and, thus, increase its marginality.
- Rusal's inclusion on the new U.S. sanctions list have caused enormous damage to the Company's international operations, as well as financial stability and market confidence, which was reflected in a strong fall in the price of Rusal's shares. I don't believe, that Rusal would be excluded from the sanctions list in the mid-term, so I have negative outlook for the Company's shares.
- I assume that E-mart will benefit from growing online grocery market, as well as from restructuring of hypermarket business (it is planned to open 6000+ stores by 2020). However, I believe that these positive expectations are mainly priced-in. In the same time, weak hypermarket margins is still the major concern.
- As a provider of port and harbor services, Global Ports is highly dependent on consumer spending and imports, which is a key driver for container volumes. Taking into account the high level of competition in the industry and uncertainty about the value of RUB vs USD, I have a negative outlook for the Global Ports' shares. As well as the Company has high leverage, which means FCFE yield is likely to remain low and I expect no dividends till 2020.
- I bet on ArcelorMittal's positive outlook, due to the Company's new capital allocation framework based on further deleveraging, but with a commitment to return a proportion of FCF when net debt reaches $6 bln. In the process of debt reduction, the Company are also going to invest selectively in opportunities that will provide the sustainable value creation. In addition of ArcelorMittal's US exposure, which I expect will make positive impact, I recommend to buy Company's shares.
- O2 Czech Republic is a integrated mobile operator, which offers voice, data and ICT services. The Company's majority shareholder PPF is going to acquire telecommunication assets of Norway-based Telenor in the CEE region and I see indirect positive effect for the O2 CR from this deal. Also the Company pays out dividends regularly, that supports the investment attractiveness of O2 CR's stocks.
- I am positive on GTB due to its strong financials. It shows strong interest income growth driven by higher yields on investment securities.
- I do not expect any significant news from Banco Macro. Yes, I see healthy loan growth driven by consumer and I see margins expansion due to securities income. However I also see OPEX increased above inflation due to higher salaries, as well as relative high Tier 1 ratio which begs the question of the best use of excess capital.
Commodity
Cobalt, $/mt
- I think that recent price growth was only caused by demand increasing in battery segment and I expect that this growth will continue. I don't believe that there was any significant drop of supply due to human rights issues in DRC's mines. Taking into account so attractive Co prices, I think that DRC's miners would not stop realization of their metal. And I think they have a lot of instruments to circumvent restrictions (for example, through Chinese intermediaries)
Exchange
Taiwan Dollar | TWD/USD
- I believe in strengthening of the Taiwan Dollar due to the prospects of the stable economic growth, as well as capital inflows against the backdrop of the improving of the investment environment. Also my expectations of the USD weakening given by economic slowdown in the mid-term, will exceed the negative impact on demand for Taiwan's exports and be supportive for the TWD bullish trend.
Russian Ruble | RUB/USD
- I believe in strengthening of the Taiwan Dollar due to the prospects of the stable economic growth, as well as capital inflows against the backdrop of the improving of the investment environment. Also my expectations of the USD weakening given by economic slowdown in the mid-term, will exceed the negative impact on demand for Taiwan's exports and be supportive for the TWD bullish trend.
- I assume that Russian ruble will show long-term downward tendency due to expected growth of US rates and, on the other side, Russian Central Bank policy for gradual declining of base rate. Unfavorable political situation and US sanction will also lead to rubble depreciation. In the same time, I think that Central Bank and Government will try to benefit from weak rubble as it will support economy growth.
Indonesian Rupiah | IDR/USD
- I believe in strengthening of the Taiwan Dollar due to the prospects of the stable economic growth, as well as capital inflows against the backdrop of the improving of the investment environment. Also my expectations of the USD weakening given by economic slowdown in the mid-term, will exceed the negative impact on demand for Taiwan's exports and be supportive for the TWD bullish trend.
- I assume that Russian ruble will show long-term downward tendency due to expected growth of US rates and, on the other side, Russian Central Bank policy for gradual declining of base rate. Unfavorable political situation and US sanction will also lead to rubble depreciation. In the same time, I think that Central Bank and Government will try to benefit from weak rubble as it will support economy growth.
- I expect the IDR to depreciate vs USD in 2018-2020, due to a gradual rise in the current-account deficit against the backdrop of higher oil prices. In addition I'm skeptical about the administration's ability to remove long standing protectionist rules governing trade and foreign investment, which will continue to damage the economy's competitiveness.
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