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Global View
Nina Patrusheva profile
Author status: Employed
Author country: Russia
Author company: Private
Job title: financial expert
Expert Area: Alternative Investments, Behavioral Finance, Corporate Finance, Economics, Equity Investments, Fixed Income
Geografical Area: Africa, Asia, South America (Latam)
Economics Area: BRIC, Developed, Emerging, G10
Country
Russia (Real GDP)
- I heard that notwithstanding the sanctions a lot of German businessmen are keen to invest and 2-3 times more right after the presidential election. I personally met about 10 good wealth persons. In my estimates this would give 2-3pp. more in GDP. I bet that Russia is one of the top country to invest in amidst emerging markets.
Company
Russia (Real GDP)
- I heard that notwithstanding the sanctions a lot of German businessmen are keen to invest and 2-3 times more right after the presidential election. I personally met about 10 good wealth persons. In my estimates this would give 2-3pp. more in GDP. I bet that Russia is one of the top country to invest in amidst emerging markets.
ASTARTA Holding NV
- I heard that notwithstanding the sanctions a lot of German businessmen are keen to invest and 2-3 times more right after the presidential election. I personally met about 10 good wealth persons. In my estimates this would give 2-3pp. more in GDP. I bet that Russia is one of the top country to invest in amidst emerging markets.
- Despite sale volumes in line with consensus, the major concern is Q4 2017 EBITDA drop (down 89% y/y). Management points at deteriorating market environment and cost inputs price inflation. I assume that worse market conditions (including weather impact) may still be putting adverse impact on company's results ahead effects of new 2018E harvest campaign.
First Abu Dhabi Bank PJSC
- I heard that notwithstanding the sanctions a lot of German businessmen are keen to invest and 2-3 times more right after the presidential election. I personally met about 10 good wealth persons. In my estimates this would give 2-3pp. more in GDP. I bet that Russia is one of the top country to invest in amidst emerging markets.
- Despite sale volumes in line with consensus, the major concern is Q4 2017 EBITDA drop (down 89% y/y). Management points at deteriorating market environment and cost inputs price inflation. I assume that worse market conditions (including weather impact) may still be putting adverse impact on company's results ahead effects of new 2018E harvest campaign.
- I assume that FAB is a perspective investment target. I forecast strong loan growth by 5-6% in 2018 and 2019, as well as FAB maintains lowest cost of funding among UAE peers that gives competitive advantage in the public sector.
Avianca Holdings SA
- I heard that notwithstanding the sanctions a lot of German businessmen are keen to invest and 2-3 times more right after the presidential election. I personally met about 10 good wealth persons. In my estimates this would give 2-3pp. more in GDP. I bet that Russia is one of the top country to invest in amidst emerging markets.
- Despite sale volumes in line with consensus, the major concern is Q4 2017 EBITDA drop (down 89% y/y). Management points at deteriorating market environment and cost inputs price inflation. I assume that worse market conditions (including weather impact) may still be putting adverse impact on company's results ahead effects of new 2018E harvest campaign.
- I assume that FAB is a perspective investment target. I forecast strong loan growth by 5-6% in 2018 and 2019, as well as FAB maintains lowest cost of funding among UAE peers that gives competitive advantage in the public sector.
- I expect that Avianca's EBIT margin will further be under pressure due to conflict with pilot's union, jet fuel price increasing, etc. The only support is relatively low share price. I maintain our Buy rating, however I prefer Copa
Sberbank of Russia PJSC
- I heard that notwithstanding the sanctions a lot of German businessmen are keen to invest and 2-3 times more right after the presidential election. I personally met about 10 good wealth persons. In my estimates this would give 2-3pp. more in GDP. I bet that Russia is one of the top country to invest in amidst emerging markets.
- Despite sale volumes in line with consensus, the major concern is Q4 2017 EBITDA drop (down 89% y/y). Management points at deteriorating market environment and cost inputs price inflation. I assume that worse market conditions (including weather impact) may still be putting adverse impact on company's results ahead effects of new 2018E harvest campaign.
- I assume that FAB is a perspective investment target. I forecast strong loan growth by 5-6% in 2018 and 2019, as well as FAB maintains lowest cost of funding among UAE peers that gives competitive advantage in the public sector.
- I expect that Avianca's EBIT margin will further be under pressure due to conflict with pilot's union, jet fuel price increasing, etc. The only support is relatively low share price. I maintain our Buy rating, however I prefer Copa
- Sberbank is a dominant bank on the Russian market and one of the most valuable Bank on the European banking sector. The Bank shows stable rising profit, has the low funding costs and nearly half of the country's retail deposits. Also German Gref (the CEO of Sberbank) has pledged to return 50% of profit through dividends by 2020. So I evaluate Sberbank's shares as an attractive investment opportunity.
Commodity
Cobalt, $/mt
- In 2016-2017 we saw significant price growth due to cobalt shortage (demand growth in battery segment with constraint supply from Africa). I expect that market will be in deficit in 2018 as well. However in 2019-2020 mine development in Africa might lead us to a surplus, price growth is likely to slow down. I think that key thing in Africa mining development is Chinese ownership of DRC copper-cobalt mines increasing (at the moment I value that approximately 25% of mines in DRC are Chinese-owned, that share might increase up to 50% due to investment in new projects). Nevertheless, after 2021, as EV story will continue and fast growth of EV demand will start, I think that we will see sustained and widening shortage of cobalt and, thus, second wave of price growth.
Exchange
China Renminbi | CNY/USD
- My confidence in CNY built on China's sustainable economy (with stable growth at 6.5%), which supported by (1) recovery of global economy and China's export growth, (2) permanent increase in consumption in the country, (3) stable growth of foreign direct investment, etc. Also the People's Bank of China gradually relaxes its monetary policy tools, for which cause exchange rate formation mechanism transfers from crisis management to normal conditions. Other ways of saying, PBoC by weakening control allows the market to play a more important role, which will have a positive impact on RMB's value.
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