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Global View
Libby Kay profile
Author status: Employed
Author country: France
Author company: Own Research
Job title: Investment Analyst
Expert Area: Equity Investments, Economics
Geografical Area: Africa, Asia, Eastern Europe, Middle East, North America, Western Europe
Economics Area: G10, G20, MIST, OPEC
Country
Turkey (Real GDP)
- After rapid increase in real GDP at the end of 2017 (+3.3% in 2016 vs +7.3% in 2017), supported by government stimulus measures and credit guarantees, as well as political pressure on banks to provide a loans and improved export competitiveness, I expect that in 2018 the Turkey's economic growth will slow down to 4%. This slowdown will reflect the impact of tax boost, higher interest rates, tightening of global liquidity against the backdrop of weaker Turkish Lira, increased inherent instability and higher inflation. As a result all planned government measures to increase employment and investment, will be fully blocked by these negative factors. In addition, foreign capital inflows will be offset by political instability in line with the transition to a presidential system of government, domestic financial vulnerability and lower interest rate in comparison with the developed economies.
Company
Turkey (Real GDP)
- After rapid increase in real GDP at the end of 2017 (+3.3% in 2016 vs +7.3% in 2017), supported by government stimulus measures and credit guarantees, as well as political pressure on banks to provide a loans and improved export competitiveness, I expect that in 2018 the Turkey's economic growth will slow down to 4%. This slowdown will reflect the impact of tax boost, higher interest rates, tightening of global liquidity against the backdrop of weaker Turkish Lira, increased inherent instability and higher inflation. As a result all planned government measures to increase employment and investment, will be fully blocked by these negative factors. In addition, foreign capital inflows will be offset by political instability in line with the transition to a presidential system of government, domestic financial vulnerability and lower interest rate in comparison with the developed economies.
Alrosa PJSC
- After rapid increase in real GDP at the end of 2017 (+3.3% in 2016 vs +7.3% in 2017), supported by government stimulus measures and credit guarantees, as well as political pressure on banks to provide a loans and improved export competitiveness, I expect that in 2018 the Turkey's economic growth will slow down to 4%. This slowdown will reflect the impact of tax boost, higher interest rates, tightening of global liquidity against the backdrop of weaker Turkish Lira, increased inherent instability and higher inflation. As a result all planned government measures to increase employment and investment, will be fully blocked by these negative factors. In addition, foreign capital inflows will be offset by political instability in line with the transition to a presidential system of government, domestic financial vulnerability and lower interest rate in comparison with the developed economies.
- My rating on Alrosa's shares is neutral, due to my expectations that the strong FCF generation and growth rates demonstrated in the previous periods will stop, as well as negative mix effect and depleting stocks will suppress the Company's FCF generation ability in the mid-term.
CEZ as
- After rapid increase in real GDP at the end of 2017 (+3.3% in 2016 vs +7.3% in 2017), supported by government stimulus measures and credit guarantees, as well as political pressure on banks to provide a loans and improved export competitiveness, I expect that in 2018 the Turkey's economic growth will slow down to 4%. This slowdown will reflect the impact of tax boost, higher interest rates, tightening of global liquidity against the backdrop of weaker Turkish Lira, increased inherent instability and higher inflation. As a result all planned government measures to increase employment and investment, will be fully blocked by these negative factors. In addition, foreign capital inflows will be offset by political instability in line with the transition to a presidential system of government, domestic financial vulnerability and lower interest rate in comparison with the developed economies.
- My rating on Alrosa's shares is neutral, due to my expectations that the strong FCF generation and growth rates demonstrated in the previous periods will stop, as well as negative mix effect and depleting stocks will suppress the Company's FCF generation ability in the mid-term.
- I expect that CEZ's earnings and share prices will continue highly exposed to changes in wholesale power prices, which have recovered from 2016 low levels. Probably the Company's power plant earnings will continue to decline during 2019, due to a rollover of power hedges and the closure and sale of aging lignite and coal units. Therefore I bet on further falling of CEZ's share prices.
Ecopetrol SA
- After rapid increase in real GDP at the end of 2017 (+3.3% in 2016 vs +7.3% in 2017), supported by government stimulus measures and credit guarantees, as well as political pressure on banks to provide a loans and improved export competitiveness, I expect that in 2018 the Turkey's economic growth will slow down to 4%. This slowdown will reflect the impact of tax boost, higher interest rates, tightening of global liquidity against the backdrop of weaker Turkish Lira, increased inherent instability and higher inflation. As a result all planned government measures to increase employment and investment, will be fully blocked by these negative factors. In addition, foreign capital inflows will be offset by political instability in line with the transition to a presidential system of government, domestic financial vulnerability and lower interest rate in comparison with the developed economies.
- My rating on Alrosa's shares is neutral, due to my expectations that the strong FCF generation and growth rates demonstrated in the previous periods will stop, as well as negative mix effect and depleting stocks will suppress the Company's FCF generation ability in the mid-term.
- I expect that CEZ's earnings and share prices will continue highly exposed to changes in wholesale power prices, which have recovered from 2016 low levels. Probably the Company's power plant earnings will continue to decline during 2019, due to a rollover of power hedges and the closure and sale of aging lignite and coal units. Therefore I bet on further falling of CEZ's share prices.
- I concern about Ecopetrol's weak financials. Despite oil price grows, its EBITDA is decreasing due to weak cost management (higher lifting cost, energy cost, maintenance cost), margins compression in refinery and political issues (attacks in company's pipelines). Additionally, company's long term perspectives are questionable as well. I do not see approvals that company has an ability to add reserves and production due to unclear exploratory success rate in Columbia.
ING Groep NV
- After rapid increase in real GDP at the end of 2017 (+3.3% in 2016 vs +7.3% in 2017), supported by government stimulus measures and credit guarantees, as well as political pressure on banks to provide a loans and improved export competitiveness, I expect that in 2018 the Turkey's economic growth will slow down to 4%. This slowdown will reflect the impact of tax boost, higher interest rates, tightening of global liquidity against the backdrop of weaker Turkish Lira, increased inherent instability and higher inflation. As a result all planned government measures to increase employment and investment, will be fully blocked by these negative factors. In addition, foreign capital inflows will be offset by political instability in line with the transition to a presidential system of government, domestic financial vulnerability and lower interest rate in comparison with the developed economies.
- My rating on Alrosa's shares is neutral, due to my expectations that the strong FCF generation and growth rates demonstrated in the previous periods will stop, as well as negative mix effect and depleting stocks will suppress the Company's FCF generation ability in the mid-term.
- I expect that CEZ's earnings and share prices will continue highly exposed to changes in wholesale power prices, which have recovered from 2016 low levels. Probably the Company's power plant earnings will continue to decline during 2019, due to a rollover of power hedges and the closure and sale of aging lignite and coal units. Therefore I bet on further falling of CEZ's share prices.
- I concern about Ecopetrol's weak financials. Despite oil price grows, its EBITDA is decreasing due to weak cost management (higher lifting cost, energy cost, maintenance cost), margins compression in refinery and political issues (attacks in company's pipelines). Additionally, company's long term perspectives are questionable as well. I do not see approvals that company has an ability to add reserves and production due to unclear exploratory success rate in Columbia.
- I consider ING's shares as a good opportunity for investing, in relation to its strong diversified Direct banking platform from which it's possible to expand the geography of lending (outside the Benelux market), healthy capital position providing and an undemanding valuation.
Compass Group PLC
- After rapid increase in real GDP at the end of 2017 (+3.3% in 2016 vs +7.3% in 2017), supported by government stimulus measures and credit guarantees, as well as political pressure on banks to provide a loans and improved export competitiveness, I expect that in 2018 the Turkey's economic growth will slow down to 4%. This slowdown will reflect the impact of tax boost, higher interest rates, tightening of global liquidity against the backdrop of weaker Turkish Lira, increased inherent instability and higher inflation. As a result all planned government measures to increase employment and investment, will be fully blocked by these negative factors. In addition, foreign capital inflows will be offset by political instability in line with the transition to a presidential system of government, domestic financial vulnerability and lower interest rate in comparison with the developed economies.
- My rating on Alrosa's shares is neutral, due to my expectations that the strong FCF generation and growth rates demonstrated in the previous periods will stop, as well as negative mix effect and depleting stocks will suppress the Company's FCF generation ability in the mid-term.
- I expect that CEZ's earnings and share prices will continue highly exposed to changes in wholesale power prices, which have recovered from 2016 low levels. Probably the Company's power plant earnings will continue to decline during 2019, due to a rollover of power hedges and the closure and sale of aging lignite and coal units. Therefore I bet on further falling of CEZ's share prices.
- I concern about Ecopetrol's weak financials. Despite oil price grows, its EBITDA is decreasing due to weak cost management (higher lifting cost, energy cost, maintenance cost), margins compression in refinery and political issues (attacks in company's pipelines). Additionally, company's long term perspectives are questionable as well. I do not see approvals that company has an ability to add reserves and production due to unclear exploratory success rate in Columbia.
- I consider ING's shares as a good opportunity for investing, in relation to its strong diversified Direct banking platform from which it's possible to expand the geography of lending (outside the Benelux market), healthy capital position providing and an undemanding valuation.
- CPG is the best in class in the catering industry. It is consistently ahead of competition in EBIT margin, as well as it shows strong organic growth in all regions, especially, N America. I believe that recent share price fall provides an attractive buying opportunity.
Exxon Mobil Corp
- After rapid increase in real GDP at the end of 2017 (+3.3% in 2016 vs +7.3% in 2017), supported by government stimulus measures and credit guarantees, as well as political pressure on banks to provide a loans and improved export competitiveness, I expect that in 2018 the Turkey's economic growth will slow down to 4%. This slowdown will reflect the impact of tax boost, higher interest rates, tightening of global liquidity against the backdrop of weaker Turkish Lira, increased inherent instability and higher inflation. As a result all planned government measures to increase employment and investment, will be fully blocked by these negative factors. In addition, foreign capital inflows will be offset by political instability in line with the transition to a presidential system of government, domestic financial vulnerability and lower interest rate in comparison with the developed economies.
- My rating on Alrosa's shares is neutral, due to my expectations that the strong FCF generation and growth rates demonstrated in the previous periods will stop, as well as negative mix effect and depleting stocks will suppress the Company's FCF generation ability in the mid-term.
- I expect that CEZ's earnings and share prices will continue highly exposed to changes in wholesale power prices, which have recovered from 2016 low levels. Probably the Company's power plant earnings will continue to decline during 2019, due to a rollover of power hedges and the closure and sale of aging lignite and coal units. Therefore I bet on further falling of CEZ's share prices.
- I concern about Ecopetrol's weak financials. Despite oil price grows, its EBITDA is decreasing due to weak cost management (higher lifting cost, energy cost, maintenance cost), margins compression in refinery and political issues (attacks in company's pipelines). Additionally, company's long term perspectives are questionable as well. I do not see approvals that company has an ability to add reserves and production due to unclear exploratory success rate in Columbia.
- I consider ING's shares as a good opportunity for investing, in relation to its strong diversified Direct banking platform from which it's possible to expand the geography of lending (outside the Benelux market), healthy capital position providing and an undemanding valuation.
- CPG is the best in class in the catering industry. It is consistently ahead of competition in EBIT margin, as well as it shows strong organic growth in all regions, especially, N America. I believe that recent share price fall provides an attractive buying opportunity.
- Taking into account target CAPEX, I believe that XOM could maintain: (1) production level >4Mboed (at least before 2020), (2) strong balance sheet, (3) dividend yield > 4%. My major concern: if it is sufficient organic CAPEX for maintaining production after 2020.
Airbus SE
- After rapid increase in real GDP at the end of 2017 (+3.3% in 2016 vs +7.3% in 2017), supported by government stimulus measures and credit guarantees, as well as political pressure on banks to provide a loans and improved export competitiveness, I expect that in 2018 the Turkey's economic growth will slow down to 4%. This slowdown will reflect the impact of tax boost, higher interest rates, tightening of global liquidity against the backdrop of weaker Turkish Lira, increased inherent instability and higher inflation. As a result all planned government measures to increase employment and investment, will be fully blocked by these negative factors. In addition, foreign capital inflows will be offset by political instability in line with the transition to a presidential system of government, domestic financial vulnerability and lower interest rate in comparison with the developed economies.
- My rating on Alrosa's shares is neutral, due to my expectations that the strong FCF generation and growth rates demonstrated in the previous periods will stop, as well as negative mix effect and depleting stocks will suppress the Company's FCF generation ability in the mid-term.
- I expect that CEZ's earnings and share prices will continue highly exposed to changes in wholesale power prices, which have recovered from 2016 low levels. Probably the Company's power plant earnings will continue to decline during 2019, due to a rollover of power hedges and the closure and sale of aging lignite and coal units. Therefore I bet on further falling of CEZ's share prices.
- I concern about Ecopetrol's weak financials. Despite oil price grows, its EBITDA is decreasing due to weak cost management (higher lifting cost, energy cost, maintenance cost), margins compression in refinery and political issues (attacks in company's pipelines). Additionally, company's long term perspectives are questionable as well. I do not see approvals that company has an ability to add reserves and production due to unclear exploratory success rate in Columbia.
- I consider ING's shares as a good opportunity for investing, in relation to its strong diversified Direct banking platform from which it's possible to expand the geography of lending (outside the Benelux market), healthy capital position providing and an undemanding valuation.
- CPG is the best in class in the catering industry. It is consistently ahead of competition in EBIT margin, as well as it shows strong organic growth in all regions, especially, N America. I believe that recent share price fall provides an attractive buying opportunity.
- Taking into account target CAPEX, I believe that XOM could maintain: (1) production level >4Mboed (at least before 2020), (2) strong balance sheet, (3) dividend yield > 4%. My major concern: if it is sufficient organic CAPEX for maintaining production after 2020.
- I evaluate Airbus' shares as an attractive investment, due to consolidated industry with high-barriers to entry, global aerospace industry growth and strong drivers of the products pro?t growth. Also I forecast the Company's sustained earnings growth in the long-run period, given by A350 margin maturity, A320 volume improvement, gradual improvement in ADS (excluding A400M) and Helicopters.
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