Coal CIF ARA prices, $/mt last = 49.7 1w: -0.6 (-1.2%)
202020212022
Consensus (median)577076
High888876
Low444576
Standard Deviation18180
Count of Estimates641
History
Forecast
CARG Summary (Price)
RankN/S0*1*2*3*4*5*
Strong Gr.       
Growth       
Flat       
Decline       
Strong Decl.       
Forecast Distribution
Company plot
[Negative]

I think that thermal coal is strongest short call, I call for prices to fall from current levels by ~25-30%, down to ~75 $/t FOB Australia. The recent rally was mainly trader-driven. At the moment Chinese government is tolerance of higher prices, but I believe that such situation is temporary. In the medium term, however, prices will be traded in 65-75 $/t range due to Chinese measures to constrain supply. In the long-term, I am bearish as we will see multiple waves of LNG supply from the US.