Tin prices, $/mt last = 16500 1w: -25 (-0.2%)
202020212022
Consensus (median)220002220022250
High260002280023000
Low192001900019500
Standard Deviation169813051346
Count of Estimates14104
History
Forecast
CARG Summary (Price)
RankN/S0*1*2*3*4*5*
Strong Gr.       
Growth       
Flat       
Decline       
Strong Decl.       
Forecast Distribution
Company plot
[Neutral]

I do not have any strong views on tin. Broad-based rally across commodities over the last years was only echoed by tin. Warehouse inventories remain high (LME warehouse have declined, SHFE warehouse have risen). Despite deficit in 2017, I am expecting balanced market in 2018 and surplus in 2019+. Main reasons are (1) metal output growing due to higher prices, (2) import increasing of tin ore and concentrates from Myanmar and Indonesia, (3) demand declining as semiconductor shipment growth rate will begin to stabilize