Steel-Hot Rolled prices, $/st last = 577 1w: +1 (0.2%)
202020212022
Consensus (median)590560550
High750700550
Low490505550
Standard Deviation79620
Count of Estimates961
History
Forecast
CARG Summary (Price)
RankN/S0*1*2*3*4*5*
Strong Gr.       
Growth       
Flat       
Decline       
Strong Decl.       
Forecast Distribution
Company plot
[Neutral]

In general, I expect that changes in stainless steel prices will be mostly driven by changes in prices for the main stainless steel raw materials: nickel, ferrochrome. Total production will remain strong (3-4% per annum), and the main growth will come from ex-China, India and Indonesia.

[Neutral]

In short-term it is expected some additional cuts in China, however the price increasing in 2017 as traders rebuilt inventories suggests to us that the cuts are largely priced in. And already in 2018-2019 I expect slowing of Chinese real estate sector and thus demand decreasing. As a result I think that steel market will be balanced or in a little deficit, thus, price will be at current level or decrease slowly.